Monmouth Park Picks, Saturday, July 23rd, 2016

Meet Record: 98 (49-17-8) – 50% Winners – 75% ITM – Best Bet: 25 (19-4-0) 76% Winners, 92% ITM

Money Invested: $4,092 – Money Returned: $9,858.75 – Total Profit – ($+5,766.75)
7/9/2016 Results:4 Top Pick Winners ($41.90), 2 Best Bet Winners ($28.70), 3 Exacta’s ($84.20), 1 $200 Cold Double as noted in article ($780), 1 Pick 4 ($218.40)

Last Week Results: 2 Top Pick Winners ($25.90), 2 Exacta’s ($128.20), 1 Trifecta ($203.30)

When the doors closed if anyone left in profit last week from Monmouth on Saturday picking what collectively ended up being a total of 23 1st time decade winning horse/jockey/trainer/owner or combination of all at an average of 9/1 up to as high as 42/1, I would love to sit down with you so you can tell me how you in the world that you backed that horse, trainer, jockey or owner besides merely placing a bet on the name. Lastly, I’ve seen some minor shady stuff and I’ve never been one for the fix or conspiracies, but I can’t help to not mention how Paco had 4 horses on the day in such a strangle hold it looked like he may kill the horse via lack of oxygen and not once but twice the gate was held fully loaded for a 1 min. 27 seconds and also 1 min. and 7 seconds and both times the favorite never left the gate, literally. Watch the race replays for yourself, the fix job was not so hidden and quite a coincidence on how the day ended up playing out as a whole. With that being said, despite it being my worst day at Monmouth in 8 days’ shy of 19 years of attendance, the 2 races we hit ended up leaving us in profit of $223 on the day. Actually quite a tough card today with multiple possible winners in each race. We hope to get the ridiculous meet statistics on the rise again here. Get Hot Stay Hot, Chalk Up.

Early Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $144
Race 1: 1,4,5
Race 2: 2,3,4,5
Race 3: 3,5,6
Race 4: 1,6
Race 5: 1,4,5,9

Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $24
Race 3: 3,5,6
Race 4: 1,6
Race 5: 1,4,5,9
Race 6: 1,3

Late Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $96
Race 6: 1,3
Race 7: 7,9
Race 8: 1,4,6
Race 9: 1,3,6,7
Race 10: 1,4,5,7

Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $48
Race 7: 7,9
Race 8: 1,4,6
Race 9: 1,3,6,7
Race 10: 1,4,5,7

Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 3YO & UP, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#4 Fifth and Madison is a second time starter for Todd Pletcher. Kin to seven winners including multiple graded stakes winner Fordubai. #1 My Country had a good debut but was a dud next time out at a longer distance. Parx stinks which adds an additional negative of that performance but repeat of debut makes her worthy of a watch. #5 Chamade is a 1st time starter out of a dam stakes winning sprinter and first two starters were also winners. Works are good, gets a bump down with Joey B on board who is well out of his prime for the money that gets dumped on him at Monmouth. Would recommend keying the 3 on top or exacta/tri box. Do not have a strong feeling about winner besides 1 of these 3 definitely being on top with the others well behind.

#4 Fifth and Madison
#1 My Country
#5 Chamade

Race 2: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Dirt)
#4 Valuable Charmer has gotten caught in race flow vs. her liking all too often for me, but given that being the case may choose to go out front this time as this one has best speed and tactical speed in the race. If not could end up again not liking the flow and bowing out. Will be very good exchange wager while watching the fractions. #5 Little Cherie beyers certainly put her in the mix and the barn excels 1st off the claim. #3 Sheikh and Sleek career figure last time out, prime position for a bounce, keep a keen eye on body language in the paddock. Must add #2 Love You Back with Trevor McCarthy in for the ride. Small field not much you can do, but any of these 4 can win; toss Scotland Bay, no shot.

#4 Valuable Charmer
#5 Little Cherie
#3 Sheikh and Sleek
Must Add – #2 Love You Back

Race 3: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 1/16 Miles, (Turf)
I give 1 more shot to the #6 Ginger Goose to find out what it’s like to be in the winner’s circle not place swimming pool. #5 Tapkee has the best turf rider in America on board in what should be a very nice pace scenario to close late. Ran second last time out to a group much the same. #3 Celebrity Warrior looks to hold on one time but all too often gets closed and finds self right here.

#6 Ginger Goose
#5 Tapkee
#3 Celebrity Warrior

Race 4: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Tough top two here as they stand much the best vs. the field. My slight lean goes to #1 Congrats to M K takes merely a numbered rise in class while the field is essentially exactly what he just beat in a hand ride. Will save ground getting right up top on the rail. #6 More Mia has beyers that match these while one could match a case to win those beyers vs. this field propel her to victory, just never seems to do so. Will be interesting to see what #2 Congrats Kid does as like my winner usually looks to shoot out of the gate to the front and sit on top. Has stalked before and may chose to do so here in hopes of my winner getting in a speed duel and tiring; as up top she would be clearly 2nd best.

#1 Congrats to M K
#6 More Mia
#2 Congrats Kid

Race 5: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Turf)
Another race with two standouts over the crowd. My lean goes to #5 Wildly Good Lookin with the best turf rider in America on board teaming up with McMahon to try and continue on what has already been a successful meet for the combination. #4 Twist and Turn returns after having quite the troubled trip last time out. The horse really loves the front end above all else and I think she is second best in that style in this one. Has come off the pace before but was clearly not the same horse. If the 1/1A Entry stay coupled I will take that as my show selection. If they separate #9 Poochy is a must add.

#5 Wildly Good Lookin
#4 Twist and Turn
#1/1A Entry – Only if they stay coupled
Must Add – #9 Poochy – If the 1/1A Entry break apart

Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Dirt)
#3 Red River Heidi was a very good best bet winner two back and then clearly bounced last time out therefore I expect the middle figure between those two efforts here today and that should easily be best. #1 Maybe Tonight comes in off a layoff with good supporting works and has been successful at Monmouth before. #2 Indian Chaser will like to clear the field up top and be impossible to reel in, however I expect Garden Games to provide the pressure needed to stay close to field. I feel inclined to mention #6 Pinot Grigio who has forever been a Monmouth Park favorite like One for Don. Both always seem to be there in the end. No shot at winning but maybe she grabs a piece for the loyal supporters.

#3 Red River Heidi
#1 Maybe Tonight
#2 Indian Chaser

Race 7: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Turf)
Best Bet – #7 My Bucky’s Boy has posted very good turf figures while routing. Goes for a turf sprint in this one and that is the specialty and dominate success of Plesa Jr. #9 Saratoga Prime is also a Plesa Jr. entry so just slide you eyes up to the last sentence for explanation. Also gets Trevor McCarthy in for the ride. #8 Lost Sonnet has faced a little bit of everything in terms of non race setup to liking, gate troubled and ensuing troubled trips. Need to see a full wire to wire finish before putting on top. Easily have the Beyer figures to compete with these though.

#7 My Bucky’s Boy
#9 Saratoga Prime
#8 Lost Sonnet

Race 8: Jersey Shore S. (Grade III), 3YO, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#1 Front Pocket Money has shown success on both the turf and dirt. His latest was a Beyer figure on the main track that makes him a must use today. The horse is versatile so the rail draw should not be a problem, even though I would like winning changes a lot more in another post. #4 Cashel Rock comes off best figure of career as essentially the veteran of the race. With that being said, those two going hand and hand are exactly what scares me. Could be prime for a bounce after last race, especially with the amount of races he’s had to get that figure previously. Not sure if you see that number again here and will need to, to be victorious. #6 Full Salute will look to take some of the show pool for the successful combination again of McCarthy and Plesa Jr.

#1 Front Pocket Money
#4 Cashel Rock
#6 Full Salute

Race 9: Lamplighter S., 3YO, 1 1/17 Miles, (Turf)
Another race with two standpoints, however this one has 2 underneath that also pose a threat. My lean goes to #6 Second Mate as everyone knows I will ride with Antonio on the turf until he retires. Has consistent Beyers to compete with these and has best tactical speed in the race, with the combination of Antonio on board to use it, should get first jump on the closers. #3 Noble Quality is the same exact horse as my winner, will look to get first jump on closers but the horse is just not as good plain and simple. Couple that with the need to be near the front to feel comfortable with a jockey on board that is washed up and obsessed with sitting in the back to do his work. 4/5? No thank you. #7 Brass Compass falters in a slow to mild pace, with what should be going on today, will benefit greatly from a race setup more to his liking. Has also already lost to my top pick winner. Must add #1 Vulcan’s Forge.

#6 Second Mate
#3 Noble Quality
#7 Brass Compass
Must Add – #1 Vulcan’s Forge

Race 10: Claiming, 3YO & UP, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
When the stakes dust settles, unfortunately another terrible race to end the day. Should just close it after the 9th and place these horses elsewhere for bigger fields as I’ve said a million times. A slight lean goes to #5 Tina’s Note. #7 Runaway train follows that and #4 Flashy Zee closes it out. #1 Mo Mon’s Copycat could also be involved.

#5 Tina’s Note
#7 Runaway Train
#4 Flashy Zee
Maybe Add – #1 Mo Mon’s Copycat

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