Monmouth Park Picks, Saturday, July 16th, 2016

I again forgot to send myself my picks and analysis from work to home computer so updated pick/money results for the meet will be posted next week. A lot of big fields tomorrow which should be nice but still looks chalky. As I’ve said all my life, it’s about continuing to find where the value lies on the horse you love, as we did last week with the $100 double that cleaned us $780 and the 2g week before that. Had a wedding last week and could not get WIFI to submit any picks, have another wedding tonight but wanted to provide DANO and you at least some short but sweet picks & analysis for this card. Get Hot Stay Hot, Chalk Up.

I will NOT be playing this ticket but the way Monmouth has gone, will call this the
Early Pick 5 (Chalk Up Ticket) – $6
Race 1: 5
Race 2: 6
Race 3: 6
Race 4: 4,7
Race 5: 1,3,7,8

Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll & Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $16
Race 3: 6,9,11
Race 4: 1,4,7
Race 5: 1,3,7,8
Race 6: 9

Late Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll & Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $12
Race 6: 9
Race 7: 5,7,8
Race 8: 1,6
Race 9: 6,7
Race 10: 6,9

Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll & Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $30
Race 7: 5,7,8
Race 8: 1,6
Race 9: 6,7
Race 10: 4,6,8,9,10

Race 1: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
#5 Saint Bernadine posted her best Beyer last time which puts her well above these. Has a red hot Antonio on board and is clearly the one to beat. #3 Deference comes in with some good works/breezes and sire is Grade 1 stakes winning sprinter. #6 Karen’s Chianti looks like the next logical selection here. Gets Nicky on board who seems to have gone cold lately, can’t imagine that lasting for long.

#5 Saint Bernadine 6/5
#3 Deference 6/1
#6 Karen’s Chianti 7/2

Race 2: Maiden Special Weight, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile & 70 Yards, (Dirt)#6 Judy’s Chance ran a sneaky good sprint debut considering the troubled trip and lack of logical sense in placement with pedigree both extremely successful going long on both turf and dirt and around two turns not sprinting. Expect an improvement here, a big negative for me is Lebron on board. #4 Fakery while weakening last time out in this spot, a Beyer was still posted in that race that puts in her conversation with these. Will look to get away up top. #1 All Even will give a shot and second look to the combination of Antonio and Mazza teaming up together.

#6 Judy’s Chance 5/2
#4 Fakery 3/1
#1 All Even 5/1

Race 3: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Turf)
#6 My Bucky’s Boy looks to rise above the place pool after two straight. Was game last time out trying to run down a big time horse and lost by a neck. Race 3 is right around the time when Paco starts to build his trio or foursome on the day and is always dangerous with Plesa. #9 Paddy O’Wagon comes in for a tag off the layoff for Juice Cibelli. I will use defensively and could change this pick while live, those 3 factors scream winner. #11 Thought Partner is a must add to your Pick 4 and Pick 5. When moving from Maiden Special weight to Maiden Claimer, Pompay wins at a 42% clip for a $3.97 ROI. Additionally, there barn is very successful making the same move and Ferrer is always a big price winning rider. Will probably key in several different ways as my stat play of the day, but the two above will be no walk in the park to beat, 3 very good angles on these 3 horses. Would be STUNNED if 1 did not win.

#6 My Bucky’s Boy 3/1
#9 Paddy O’Wagon 7/2
#11 Thought Partner 6/1

Race 4: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#4 Red Rocket Express makes first start off the claim on the good drugs for Navarro. Pace looks to be a central park stroll, should stalk and close late. Can also make a very strong argument for #7 Little Hitman has done absolutely nothing wrong for me every time I make him my best bet winner. Looks for 3 straight here but the big drop in class is very concerning to me, cannot back him as my winner for that factor today. #1 Foileen gets Shannon Uske on board who I like to call my Trifecta protector. Doesn’t win all that often but man does she continuously close a Trifecta for you at a price. Must add #6 One for Don who loves to impress the Monmouth Park crowd.

#4 Red Rocket Express 3/1
#7 Little Hitman 2/1
#1 Foileen 10/1
Must Add – #6 One for Don

Race 5: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Turf)
Race is absolutely wide open as if the AE’s get in I could go as deep as 7. Need to see scratches and changes and how the turf is playing early in the day and also if it’s soft after tonight’s thunderstorm before I can attempt to pick a winner as this is a race I will go back to and look at again. Would be huge to land a big price in here to double with my best bet of the day next. My dart board toss landed on these 3 in no particular order. #1 One Eyed Ray, #7 Fu Manchu, #8 Big Daddy B. Also Add, #3 Mpenzisboy. Possible Adds, #6 Z Ponti, #11 Information Center, #12 Tyrrhenian, #14 Magnanimous Mine. Look for an update later tweeted by me and retweeted by Dano.

Race 6: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Best Bet – #9 Big Talkin is in top form of career right now and will sit off of Rocket Man Richie the entire way through and engulf him late. #10 Naught Delite will be looking to sit with my winner and be a bigger difference on the stretch. #2 Rocket Man Richie some will argue his Beyer’s with me, this horse has more excuses then a 2nd grader being asked for last night’s homework, 1/1 at post? No thank you, tell your dog to keep the homework.

#9 Big Talkin 5/2
#10 Naughty Delite 5/1
#2 Rocket Man Richie 7/2

Race 7: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Turf)
#5 Shea D Girl is much the best in class coming into this one out of a stakes race. Her Beyers top the field and Servis is a BEAST with turf sprinters. #7 Just My Game will look to build on her 1st career game turf start last time out. Has all the room in the world to improve if turf is what she always wanted. Also gets the best turf rider in the world IMO. GALLARDO! Must add to Pick 4/5. #8 Get Air Lex Orlando and Plesa Jr. on the turf with a big price, sign me up.

#5 Shea D Girl 5/2
#7 Just My Game 5/1
#8 Get Air Lex 8/1

Race 8: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#6 Sue’s Stones gets 1 more shot for me. My only best bet loss of the entire year. Broken record here, best horse in race with best trainer in race, best spot, best jockey, still can’t finish. Last time I’ll give a shot. No excuses. #1 Fortunate Night must get a look while facing better last two and have Beyer’s that put her in the mix. Doesn’t hurt having Nicky on board. #3 Sunev will be my pedigree play of the day. Makes debut being kin to 6 for 6 first time winners. Has good works coming in but my main concern for 3rd and not winner is the barn is abysmal in this spot. Will probably play this one at a cool 8/1 and not Sue’s Stones at an awful price, but the name of the game for the site is to pick winners.

#6 Sue’s Stones 8/5
#1 Fortunate Night 7/2
#3 Sunev 8/1

Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO, 1 Mile, (Dirt)
A race between three here, the rest can stay in the paddock area for pictures. #7 Vees Boy is a horse that needs the lead, which I usually shy away from when in farthest post. However, Paco is on board and Pletcher is the trainer that concern dismisses quite quickly. If he does not get the lead in what will be a very contested pace, IMMEDIATELY GO ON BET FAIR AND EXCHANGE WAGER THESE TWO  – #6 Lazarus Project benefits substantially with every inch that the pace is ultra contested and hot. #1 Gone Local is very much like Lazarus Project just not sure if the horse is as good. If you feel like Vees Boy does not get across or the pace is so contested and tiring they all fatigue before the race and P4/P5 start, you must add this one vertically and horizontally, can improve and win in that race setup.

#7 Vees Boy 8/5
#6 Lazarus Project 9/5
#1 Gone Local 5/1

Race 10: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Turf)
Not really confident in any of these in another bad excuse ridden card ender. Two make a little headway over the rest. #9 Hopefaithjoy has the excuses of clipping heels last time out and falling to face. Recovered injury free and has some good works since, along with pretty potent Beyers before the incident. If she returns to those great but hard to be gong hoe about first race since. #6 Kent’s Baby Girl will look shoot out of the gate and get away from everybody. Problem is, she tries that every time and falters more times than not. #3 How Come, #8 Moonlit Sonnet, #4 Don’s Escapade, all also have a shot to win or take 3rd if you want to take a shot vs. a excuse driven weak field.

#9 Hopefaithjoy 7/2
#6 Ken’ts Baby Girl 3/1
Add- #3 How Come 6/1
Add – #8 Moonlit Soonet 8/1
Add – #4 Don’s Escapade 8/1

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