Monmouth Park Picks, Saturday, July 2nd, 2016

Meet Record: 76 (43-11-4) – 56% Winners – 76% ITM – Best Bet: 22 (18-3-0) 81% Winners, 95% ITM

Money Invested: $3,502 – Money Returned: $8,251.65 – Total Profit – ($+4,749.65)

As Promised, 6/18/2016 Results: 7 Top Pick Winners ($55.20), 2 Best Bet Winners ($15.50), 5 Exacta’s ($60.40), 2 Trifecta’s ($60.10), 4 Cold Doubles ($26.60), 3 Pick 4’s ($389.50), 2 Pick 5’s ($261.70)

Last Week Results: 9 Top Pick Winners ($81.60), 3 Best Bet Winners ($35.90), 5 Exacta’s ($90.80), 1 Trifecta ($11.00), 5 Cold Doubles ($47.40), 2 Pick 4’s ($57.10), 3 Pick 5’s ($334.65)

Had a Historic week for Dano and my twitter feed last time out as I know from DM’S 6 followed along to both the picks/analysis and in game tweets. If you did follow along, the total was 5.2 grand profits at day’s end, as I tweeted my ticket sizes for both the double and pick 5’s listed above. If you just followed along the picks and analysis you picked up 1.1g in profit with minimum wagers, not a bad day. Hope to continue this run for you guys and as always, if you have a question, or want some plays, just DM me and ask. As the 6 will tell you last week, it pays to ask a question. Get Hot Stay Hot, Chalk Up.

Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $8
Race 3: 4,5
Race 4: 2,6,7,9
Race 5: 2,9
Race 6: 2

Early Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $30
Race 3: 4,5,6
Race 4: 2,6,7,9
Race 5: 2,4,6,7,9
Race 6: 2

Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $12
Race 9: 1,2,6,9
Race 10: 3,4,6
Race 11: 3
Race 12: 1,6

Race 1: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Turf)
Brutal opener and as you see I will not be putting together a Pick 5 ticket as you can make an argument for 5 of these. #7 La Peregrina looks to be the only horse with possible excuses for past performances in the race. Debut in Keeneland ends up being a race vs. 5 2nd time out winners including graded stakes winner Kareena. Last time out before she was able to go off, the track changed to slop. Now my concern, if I can see those factors, I know the trainer and barn can, and the pedigree has no turf success, why are we changing surfaces? #2 Preppy goes 2nd time out for Todd Pletcher which is always a must add or you do not like money. #3 Purrmorehissless makes debut as a half to Grade 1 synthetic winner Lingerie and second dam won Breeder’s cup Juvenile Fillies. Clearly best pedigree among these if you are that type of player. #6 R Shade of Gray looks to benefit most from suspected race setup. #1/1A Entry cannot leave Paco off the board, especially on a first time starter at this point and time. Many people say he’s just getting the best horse in every race. I would agree slightly, however he is doing some amazing stuff on the horses that are clearly not the best in the race and you can clearly see, especially with binoculars or live HD cam he strikes fear in jockey’s to make moves before they are ready.

#7 La Peregrina 3/1
#2 Preppy 5/2
#3 Purrmorehissless 5/1
Must Add – #6 R Shade of Gray 5/1
Must Add – #1/1A Entry 4/1

Race 2: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 1/16 Miles, (Dirt)
#6 Mulligan’s Singer looked game vs. one of my top pick winners last week late who won as odds under favorite going away. While the rest of the field was gassed this one was still gaining ground. Drops vs. lesser here, and would seem to be live in a 6 day turn around. I think the stretch out in distance should help to considering last races outcome. #4 Eye Contact struggled last time out but it was first time ever going two turns. Experience angle here along with possible lone speed up front which would also help. #1 Pegasus Storm I give you one more shot, period.

#6 Mulligan’s Singer 5/2
#4 Eye Contact 3/2
#1 Pegasus Storm 6/1

Race 3: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Dirt)
Best Bet – #4 Sue’s Stones has already finished ahead of 3 in this race and only took 3rd to 1 graded stakes winner and the other maiden special graduate in that one. None of these come close to that talent at their peak. #5 Mama Pajama just add Paco Lopez at this meet in a race where none of these horses are any good. #6 Nellie Mac gets that barn improvement statistic as they are in ITM 19% of the time second time out.

Best Bet – #4 Sue’s Stones 5/2
#5 Mama Pajama 3/1
#6 Nellie Mac 4/1

Race 4: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 & 1/16 Miles, (Turf)
Very tough race between 3 horses here. Would not talk you off an Ex/Tri box with the 3. I lean to #7 or #9 on top but I could never pick Uske as a winner, so I go with #9 Tapkee while facing much better, did not really do anything in those. Chased in the slop and didn’t factor vs. Graded 3 stakes winner respectively. The time would be now with the drop in class and successful surface switch. #7 Air Ranger has the layoff angle with proven success in step up effort off of these types. #6 Talent Show would be top choice going away but if you know what a bounce is, don’t think I’ve seen a horse more prime for one. Best effort of career came last time out while smoking a field which produced 6 winners’ next time out and best figure of career.

#9 Tapkee 3/1
#7 Air Ranger 4/1
#6 Talent Show 5/2

Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 2YO, 5 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#9 Nonna Mela trainer is Todd Pletcher for this second time starter. If I need to say more, he teaches and lets the horse learn. If you watch debut replay, you can see the horse learning, now comes in after the teaching. For the cherry on cake, dam is full sister to Haskell winner Bluegrass Cat. #2 Day By Day has a very good shot here, would not be surprised if in winner’s circle at all. Showed tons of a speed giving graduate Misschief Mass all she could handle and then some. If not for a bull-shit stewards decision would have taken her down. Therefore the question is, was Misschief Mass even that good? Should be a factor. #6 Mission Good Karma giving a second look here. Was clearly no match for my best bet winner a week or so back. The two above are clearly nowhere close to that talent, could be a sneaky winner here in a formable spot.

#9 Nonna Mela 7/2
#2 Day By Day 5/2
#6 Mission Good Karma 4/1

Race 6: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Triple Best Bet – #2 My Little Darlings takes a Blizzard Beach plunge in class and ships in with the needle hanging out for Navarro from Parx. There’s just no other horse at all that has the speed to contest, could be a wire to wire or around the turn blow away. I guess go all behind if you are exacta/tri player. Like last week where we made the 2.1g with my triple best bet. I will pound this double for $200 or so and single on 10-15 Pick 4 Tickets. There’s always a way to find value on your horse of the day. Just do the homework on how. $8 DD cheap? X 100 is $800. $70 Pick4 cheap? 7.5 x 70 = $525. 3 p.m and you just staked $1,325 in your pocket. Sometimes all you have to do is ask.

#2 My Little Darlings 6/5

Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Turf)Another tough one here as I can make a case for 4. #3 Wise Mac gets a mere lean due to that fact that my best friend/longtime NHC tournament supporter’s nickname is Mac. A veteran horse here who could use the vast amount of experience vs. a weak field. Statistically you have to go with the #1 Fly Bye Pomeroy & 1A Entry Sterling’s Maximus next as you have to use Paco and you get 2 entries that have just as good as a shot to the rest with 1. If the entry breaks apart, I do like the 1A better. Had a tough luck trip last time out as 4 no shot winners dueled each other to the death and he was forced 5 wide to catch them on turn. #2 Bam Bam Brown will be the pace setter where Nicky is at his best up top. Has overcome pressure before and has run best races when being asked to quicken. Must Add to horizontals and verticals

#4 All Above Diva.
#3 Wise Mac 7/2
#1/1A Entry 5/2
#2 Bam Bam Brown 3/1
Must Add – #4 All About Diva

Race 8: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Tough two here. #3 Mr. Spaceman gets my slight edge top pick. Got smoked by my Best Bet a few weeks back and that horse went on again to roll competition with a 80+ Beyer last weekend, following a 70 in the race with Mr. Spaceman. Those stats would make you think he is the one to beat but there is another in here and I would not pay even money on this horse knowing what’s behind. #6 PJ’s Bad Boy will be tough cutting back in distance and taking a drop in class. Just like Mr. Spaceman, got beat by a best bet of mine in dominating fashion. Will be interesting to see  these two not up against monsters. #1 Runaway Train also takes a drop in class and may be the main speed on top, after today’s bias, that could be a huge factor if playing the same.

#3 Mr. Spaceman 8/5
#6 PJ’S Bad Boy 5/2
#1 Runaway Train 9/2

Race 9: Allowance, 3YO & Up, 1 1/18 Miles, (Turf)
For all of us men with significant others out there, My Top Pick goes to #9 Blame It On Me who was interestingly placed in last race in only 2nd lifetime start. Had to face graded stakes winner Achnaha, fell out of the gate and had to stretch out 3 full furlongs from 1st start distance. Cuts back to distance of best trainings and I think that will make the difference. #1 Sky Painter was clearly not live after a lengthy layoff and looks to have needed one. Ran to hard early, got caught in traffic and swung super wide all equaling to a flat stretch. #2 Always On My Mind looks to finish out a tough top 4 in the show pool with JJ on board and from Pletcher’s Barn. Must also add to all vertical and horizontals #6 Bai Bai Baby.

#9 Blame It On Me 3/1
#1 Sky Painter 7/2
#2 Always On My Mind 6/1
Must Add – #6 Bai Bai Baby 5/1

Race 10: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Part two of the Back to Back tough races before Chalk City begins in 11 & 12. I lean to #3 Formal Summation with quite the surface change again as last time he moved turf to dirt he won the Laurel Futurity. Last time on Main Track lost to Justin Squared who many loved and pounded on last two big cards. Pretty good horse IMO. This would seem to be a drop in class, however I’m concerned the barn is ICE COLD. #6 Imperial Hint will absolutely be a threat dropping from two graded stakes races with ridiculous paces. If they let him get loose on top, it’s over. #4 He’s Cotton had a decent race two back in this spot but was up against it vs. graded stakes winner Awesome Slew. Looked worse last time out at Parx but I put absolutely no stake on anything at Parx. Will have my eye on but not sure if I am all that worried about him beating me.

#3 Formal Summation 3/1
#6 Imperial Hint 8/5
#4 He’s Cotton 9/2

Race 11: Salvator Mile (Grade III), 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Dirt)
Can Monmouth get some competition in one of these big races 1 time this year? This race is a mere skip. #3 Mr. Jordan took the Pegasus in 2015 here and returns to the Salvator Mile here from a long layoff. So what to expect, who knows? #5 Comfort is the clear second choice by the angle of what have the others done after him, not necessarily what he’s done. FINALLY broke through at Belmont and both the 2nd/3rd place finishers behind him scored 100 Beyer victories next time out. Really doesn’t mean he has to score a 100 Beyer here and maybe they just needed one? Sorry I’m not playing 4/5 on that with Joey Bravo on board who gets pounded by the jersey shore attendance if he was on a 6 hump Camel vs. Wedding Toast, while should have retired at the shore 3 years ago. Pick your poison for 3rd, Green Gratto stinks and couldn’t beat a bunch of nobodies at 1/9. Maybe Allied Air Raid or Red Judicata? What a Joke.

#3 Mr. Jordan 8/5
#5 Comfort 2/1

Race 12: Maiden Special Weight, 3YO & Up, 1 & 1/17 Miles, (Turf)Another absolutely terrible card ender. I mean just end this thing at 10 or 11 races and pack in the rest of the fields! Starting to really get Embarrassing. Average end of the day winner has to be paying out like $3.80. #6 Otto was better than all of these in debut statistically, including beating the 9. Goes 2nd time out for Christophe Clement who is nothing sort of ELITE in this spot. #1 Built for Profit looks to benefit most from proposed race setup. Could be a nice little exacta price to end at least. Not really a strong opinion but I’ll go with #5 Tyr who has early speed and will be biggest beneficiary if they let him get loose.

#6 Otto 2/1
#1 Built for Profit 6/1
#5 Tyr 6/1

2 thoughts on “Monmouth Park Picks, Saturday, July 2nd, 2016

  1. Hey Ryan…great job lately…I appreciate the insights! Any suggestion on what I can/should do the #2 in the 6the? I can’t make it to otb and my book only shows wps, ex, ex box…thanks man!

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    • Good afternoon Scott. I did $100 double 5th into 6th and then $100 double 6th into 7th. He will be 2/5 so can’t bet to win and Pick 4 early is toug but if 1 other favorite comes in its only like $50 payout. Let me know if you have doubles.

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