Monmouth Park Picks, Saturday, June 25th, 2016

Did half of the article on work laptop and forgot to e-mail it to myself to write on personal computer on flight home like an idiot. I will have updated meet record, invested, profit and losses next week. I know we had a little bit of everything last week. 7 Top Picks winners, both best bets, several doubles, a couple exacta/tri hits, 2-3 Pick 4 Hits, 2-3 Pick 5 hits and took home just under $500 in profit on minimum wagers. Will add both last week’s and this week’s results at the top next week. This card looks favorite heavy, would almost say it’s worse than the one I called two weeks ago but there are very few second choice favorite selections here, so if the favorite does get beat you will get some nice money instead of $5.00 over $3.20. Also some of the favorites due have a nice ML due to the field; hopefully they don’t get pounded to unplayable. Chalk Up, Get Hot Stay Hot.

Early Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll & Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $81
Race 1: 5,6,7
Race 2: 2,3,4
Race 3: 2,4
Race 4: 1,2,4
Race 5: 1,4,6

Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $18
Race 3: 2,4
Race 4: 1,2,4
Race 5: 1,4,6
Race 6: 1A/1,4

Early Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $54
Race 3: 2,4,6
Race 4: 1,2,3,4
Race 5: 1,4,6
Race 6: 1A/1,4,6

Late Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll & Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $108
Race 7: 2,3,14
Race 8: 2,6,7,8
Race 9: 2,3,9
Race 10: 2,3
Race 11: 3,4,8

Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll & Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $36
Race 8: 2,6,7,8
Race 9: 2,3,9
Race 10: 2,3
Race 11: 3,4,8

Race 1: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Dirt)
#6 Jacksie would be a best bet but comes in a prime position to “bounce”. Ran best Beyer figure by a substantial margin last time out. The thing is this group is so bad it may not even take that number. Still the one to beat. #5 Miss Shockey has very mixed work tabs so is really tough to put a finger on. Have to think she would be involved with success of pedigree 1st time out and lack of other successful jocks in race. #7 Lizzie Queen finishes out the show pool for an early commonly played left to right post position combination.

#6 Jacksie 8/5
#5 Miss Shockey 6/1
#7 Lizzie Queen 5/1

Race 2: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Could make a case for the entire field here and would not talk you off of using the all button. I think three horses standout here among the group and I will use them all defensively. The coin flip landed on tails so #4 Untamed will be doing the opposite of her name and try to tame my second choice from getting away. Has best shot in doing so and I don’t feel is as second best as the tote may say. #3 Billypaysthebills comes into this one winning 2 straight, has benefited greatly from lack of pace giving her the ability to get away and never have to stress on being caught, could be the same here, however pace looks a little more live. #2 Rasta Friend will be the other threat to the pace. Too many concerns here for me in terms of lack of consistency and also the change from quality to non quality and quantity barn. There’s always a reason. Would not be shocked if winner though.

#4 Untamed 5/2
#3 Billypaysthebills 2/1
#2 Rasta Friend 3/1

Race 3: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 & 1/17 Miles, (Turf)
Best Bet – #2 Tybalt’s Queen used an exhausting pace up front last time out to close easily off of it. Again draws a ground saving trip, however the pace should be a little bit more controlled so it will be interesting to see if she is a one trick pony. #4 Starship Hostility will be the one looking to set the more controlled pace and based on last race could use the main and tactical speed to get to far away for my winner to chase down. #6 Scottish Sweetie seems to be the other one who will hope the pace is more controlled in her favor with my 2nd choice. Has shown quickness out of the gate and being even further away than the 4, will HAVE to be here. May choose to stalk second choice instead due to the draw and beat the favorite down the lane late. Not sure I want to dual Paco/Pletcher on a stretch.

Best Bet – #2 Tybalt’s Queen  5/2
#4 Starship Hostility 4/1
#6 Scottish Sweetie 3/1

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight, 3YO & Up, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Dirt)
#1 Racehorse Haynes has by far the best figures in the field and gets a rider upgrade in JJ following a very good 2nd best debut. Horse also gets a check mark considering JJ is not riding for his boyfriend Navarro and instead hops on this one. There’s a reason. #4 Thought Partner is a first timer coming in with very good works for a trainer that has good stats in this spot. #3 Moneyman is a must add off the claim for Navarro who I am sure needled this horse up right away. As mentioned earlier though, his boyfriends are JJ and Gallardo and they both go elsewhere is this race. Maybe the drugs got stuck in customs. Next time.

#1 Racehorse Haynes 5/2
#4 Thought Partner 3/1
#3 Moneyman 9/2

Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Dirt)#6 Snowday took a photo show 1st time off the layoff and would expect the typical 2nd time off the layoff step up vs. a weak field. #1 Partyallnightlong will look to improve on a place effort last time out at the age of 9! Should be a nice pace up front for him to close upon, but hate the hedge draw as it is always a mess of traffic at Monmouth to close upon. May be the traffic, not the lack of talent that arises here. #4 Sleeping Giant had success in 2015 off lengthy layoff and will look to do the same here with Bravo.

#6 Snowday 5/2
#1 Partallnightlong 3/1
#4 Sleeping Giant 3/1

Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile & 70 Yards, (Dirt)Best Bet – I like both of the 1/1A entries better than the rest. #1A Jersey Blues will be in stalking position and get 1st call at the pace setter. #1 No More Music goes back to a two turn race which he has preferred throughout career. #4 Acini Di Pepe will put in his best effort to get loose and not be caught. Knows what is behind so I think he sets something way to hot and fast and exhausts late to the entries. If one of the entries is out, add #6 Ride Ride Ride.

Best Bet – #1/1A Jersey Blues & No More Music 4/5
#4 Acini Di Pepe 12/1
#6 Ride Ride Ride 4/1

Race 7: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#3 Bully Proof was hurt last time out as favorite vs. a pace setting bias. Now comes back off the claim with Paco on board and the lack of pace and probable lack of bias, should lead to redemption for all he let down last time. #14 Congrats Kid probably has no shot at getting in, but if he does, instant threat to top pick. I like just as much, if not even more to make my top pick. #2 Here’s Spartacus makes 3rd start off the layoff after losing to my top pick by a nose last time out. Beyer in last two make him a must add but the horse got a perfect trip, setup and best figure of career and still got beat by my winner, not sure I can expect more.

#3 Bully Proof 3/1
#14 Congrats Kid 5/2
#2 Here’s Spartacus 4/1

Race 8: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 & 1/16 Miles, (Turf)
Will be a battle between two here. #6 My Bucky’s Boy has nice figures, got a tough trip and bad move 2 back and last time out was up against a beast for a clear place finish. #8 Sanad I’ll take one more shot vs. a weak field and figures that put him in the running. #7 Buon Gusto has a mere edge of race flow in his favor. Change of surface at this point gives me a hunch to watch again.

#6 My Bucky’s Boy 3/1
#8 Sanad 4/1
#7 Buon Gusto 6/1

Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile & 70 Yards, (Dirt)#3 Ostrolenka has early speed and the inside draw only helps that. In both starts this year was unsuccessful but Beyer was better than these. Seems to be compromised by race flow more often than not, which race flow will not be in this one. My one concern is when have you ever seen Bravo trying to get away on the lead and not closing the pace while sitting in 7th? Compromised by jockey this time?  #9 I’m Steppin it Up makes first start off the claim for Jamie Ness. Have picked him before and now Ness wins 28% in this spot. Must Add! Wish Gallardo was on turf with this one, don’t love him as much on the dirt and has to come from widest spot taking away early speed advantage. #2 Lazarus Project rounds out the show pool with JJ on board.

#3 Ostrolenka 5/2
#9 I’m Steppin it Up 7/2
#2 Lazarus Project 9/2

Race 10: Eatontown S. (Grade III), 3 YO & Up, 1 & 1/17 Miles, (Turf)Triple Best Bet – #2 Isabella Sings if you are going vs. for anything other than short price, you have to tell me why. Adds a new piece to arsenal every race, tactical, versatile, stalk, pace, hot, cold, traffic, rail, and doesn’t matter. Due to the lack of pace will probably head right to front and wire the field in this one, instead of closing in the Miss Liberty vs. a heavy pace. Mike Trout at Monmouth Park right here folks. Key/All/All everything. Pound, Pound, Pound.

Triple Best Bet – #2 Isabella Sings 6/5

Race 11: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#3 R Known Fact concerning that after a good race on the turf, changes again back to dirt. Yes, best figures have been there but how many times do you need to try each out. Field is brutal, not sure there is another to run with her, and could be a wire job. #8 Pranzare will attempt to run with or stalk my winner; just don’t see enough speed to be a factor in either spot. Has decent Beyer and does take a class drop for a look. #4 Kate n Kerri broke poorly out of the gate last time out and was never really a factor vs. better. Have to take a second look if she is able to break clean vs. a bad field.

#3 R Known Fact 5/2
#8 Pranzare 3/1
#4 Kate n Kerri 7/2

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