Monmouth Park, Saturday, June 18th, 2016

meet Record: 54 (27-9-4) – 50% Winners – 74% ITM – Best Bet: 17 (13-3-0) 76% Winners, 94% ITM

Money Invested: $2,749 – Money Returned: $6,713.90 – Total Profit – ($+3,964.90)

Last Week: 8 Top Pick Winners ($97.40), 2 Best Bet Winners ($30.40), 7 Exactas ($110.20), 3 Trifecta ($80.40), 5 Cold Doubles ($47.40)

Tied my best Top Pick Winners last week which was a very good 8. Also hit the triple best bet and a good amount of EX/TRI which I never do, so tread lightly going forward with those. As I mentioned that was worst card I’ve ever seen in my 18 years at Monmouth and the chalk proved me correct. I also have stopped playing the P4 & P5. Last time I looked into it, there were 7 straight under $100 payouts and/or a negative 13.9% ROI based on your increment of money bet. The best and even the worst handicapper will tell you, you cannot make money like that in P4/P5 pools. I will continue to make those tickets for you guys and count them in my record, as you will see last week, we actually lost $300 because of them, while I myself did not play them, but I will continue to document for online record purposes. Today’s card looks a bit more competitive but so did Friday’s and ALL the value scratched, I hope this one holds. Get Hot Stay Hot.

Early Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket): $32
Race 1: 1,6
Race 2: 3,6
Race 3: 2,3,6,7
Race 4: 1,7
Race 5: 6,7
 
Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket): $16
Race 3: 2,3,6,7
Race 4: 1,7
Race 5: 6,7
Race 6: 3,5
 
Late Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket): $32
Race 7: 1,6
Race 8: 3,5,6,9
Race 9: 4,5
Race 10: 4,5,9
Race 11: 4,5,7
 
Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket): $36
Race 8: 3,5,6,9
Race 9: 4,5
Race 10: 4,5,9
Race 11: 4,5,7
 
Late Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket): $96
Race 8: 3,5,6,9
Race 9: 1,4,5,6
Race 10: 3,4,5,9
Race 11: 4,5,7

Race 1: Maiden Claiming, 2YO, 4 ½ Furlongs, (Dirt)
Always watch the Tote and Post Parade in these races! – #1 Misschief Mass comes into this beating the entire field already (outside of the lone first timer) in a hand ride, never having to be asked once. Paco has dominated on horses that are the favorite and Plesa Jr. has done the same. #6 Royal Chapeau is the lone first timer that has not faced these. Comes in for a barn that is elite with firsters. Also has a very nice dam pedigree which has produced 5 first time 2YO winners, must add to Pick 4/5. #4 Renee’s Cat is a race replay and jockey play. Really all you can go by as they’ve all ran once and faced each other once. Thought he got a tough trip in that one and Ferrer has some ridiculous stat this meet, averaging $19 ITM or something. This one will way above the 5/2 ML as my 1st and 2nd choice will take a TON of money based on race prior and 1st timer stats.

#1 Mischief Mass 7/5
#6 Royal Chapeau 3/1
#4 Renee’s Cat 5/2

Race 2: Maiden Special Weight, 2YO, 5 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Always watch the Tote and Post Parade in these races! – #3 Bronson debuts for a Dam that has produced 4 first time out winners, all which went on to be stakes winners. Also debuting for Pletcher, need I say more? #6 My Carrots has relation to two successful graded stakes winners which compiled over 600k earnings, has best works among these. #2 Redeemable 30/1? Are you kidding me, 6 first timers, all unknown factors, 30/1? With a 6 horse field of first timers, give me the price all day. 50% ROI and/or 3/1 winner, before they even reach the gate to show. Plus, as Brad and I tweeted about last week, Winston Kay is coming along as a very good rider at the park.

#3 Bronson 2/1
#6 My Carrots 7/2
#2 Redeemable 30/1

Race 3: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Turf)
Could make a strong argument for 4 in this race, will not leave any off horizontal and verticals and will not play to win. Use all 4 where you find most value. #2 Mojo Rising has very good speed and draws the rail with a huge rider upgrade in Paco. May not be caught if they let him get away. #6 Scrap Iron Phil lost to a field last time out much deeper and better then these. Showed tactical speed in that race which is a huge plus on turf and the barn has a very good ROI and ITM percentages on short turf races. #3 City Elitist Navarro is the trainer, (don’t feel like venting) on the turf none to less. One setback for me was the surprise of Antonio Gallardo his favorite jockey being on the 4 instead here. IMO nobody better in the world on the turf then him, and also Navarro’s favorite jockey? Maybe the horse hasn’t been injected yet. #7 Guinness Spice will have my focus, asked to see one last time out, was nowhere near un-impressed to let 10/1 go bye and Nunn is good in this spot.

#2 Mojo Rising 7/2
#6 Scrap Iron Phil 7/2
#3 City Elitist 3/1
#7 Guinness Spice 10/1
 

Race 4: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile & 70 Yards, (Dirt)
Best Bet – #7 Rosie’s Faith should be quickest out of the gate and should steal this wire to wire as there is absolutely no pace.#1 Zafiro Azul has a very good shot to put up the place/show pool based on how this race looks to setup. Chelsey also is very sneaky in doing so this meet and over the last few years.#5 Lagrats comes off a longer than expected layoff which is concerning to me, needed Harlington Romance to stay in the race to tire my winner for any shot, that shot is now ruined.

Best Bet – #7 Rosie’s Faith 8/5
#1 Zafiro Azul 8/1
#5 Lagrats 5/2

Race 5: Allowance, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Turf)
Best Bet – #6 Boss Man didn’t fare well last time out in a slow poke pace which debilitates his style. Previous to that one has best Beyer figures among this and this race setup should have a good amount of early speed playing right into his hands. #7 Foxhall Drive can go wire to wire or stalk, got in trouble last time tiring in a race long dual, therefore may switch to stalking this time. Boss Man should fly bye in either scenario. #2 Wolf Rock has won two straight but the Beyer figures and competition compared to the rest of these is quite soft. Does come in for a new barn off the layoff which sometimes leads to a step forward, need to see it before I pay for it.

Best Bet – #6 Boss Man 8/5
#7 Foxhall Drive 3/1
#2 Wolf Rock 6/1

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 2YO, 5 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Always watch the Tote and Post Parade in these races! #5 Sweet Loretta is extremely tough to go vs. in a 6 horse field of first timers with these connections. Dam won debut as 2YO, connections have all been successful to anyone’s standards, good works, ML suggest she can also run and I’d expect the tote board to tell you the same. #3 Mission Good Karma has some decent works and also the Ferrer stat I mentioned earlier in the card. Excels in this spot and with “bomb” type horses at this meet better than anyone. #2 Discreetly Rockin is only in this spot due to the rail draw as a first time starter. I’m sure Gallardo will do his best to keep her calm because if he gets her into those very good training numbers, the ability is clearly there.

#5 Sweet Loretta 3/2
#3 Mission Good Karma 5/1
#2 Discreetly Rockin 7/2
 

Race 7: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Huge scratch to the #5, Tread this race lightly now. #1 Outzap has suffered from some gate problems. If clean in this one could be a factor up top. Need to see it before she gets a penny of mine at even money. #6 Awesome Challenge makes 1st start off the claim for Farro with Nicky on board. Will need to beat Outzap to the front to be a factor, therefore needs that gate stumble, if not the show sounds more likely.

#1 Outzip 9/5
#6 Awesome Challenge 3/1
 

Race 8: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Turf)
Back to Back Tough Races, In Part 1 my lean goes to – #9 Stand and Salute goes 1st off the claim with best figure at this distance among these on the grass back in November. Has also had several solid works since last seen. #3 Breezy My Way faced much better in his only turf sprint. Had a little bit of a gate mishap and then a bad trip ensued. Looking forward to seeing a possible forward move and step up.  #6 Starship Thor is a must add with Navarro’s drug buddy Cibelli and Nicky on board. #5 Je Ne Sais Pas is really tough not to pick on top. Has great tactical speed and the barn numbers with turf sprinters is on another level. Better rider and I’m sold.

#9 Stand and Salute 4/1
#3 Breezy My Way 5/1
#6 Starship Thor 7/2
Must Add – #5 Je Ne Sais Pas 3/1

Race 9: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Dirt)
In Part 2 my lean goes to – #5 Tizcano has a ton of speed and could try to clear from middle of the pack and wire the field. Removes blinkers after blowing last lead in same race setup as this one draws up to be. #4 Island Cat will either be with Tizcano, behind Tizcano, or past Tizcano in terms of speed and pace. This one bothers me a bit as there is always race setup excuse, to fast, to slow, tired, stalked, fatigued. Need a start to finish no-bullshit reason before this one gets my money. #6 Mini Cosmo returns to the main track and what would appear to be his most liked and successful distance. Must add to all horizontal and verticals.

#5 Tizcano 6/5
#4 Island Cat 3/1
#6 Mini Cosmo 6/1

Race 10: Dan Horn H. 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Turf)
Vast options in here but the more I continue to look I just think #5 Here’s to Mike is the best horse in the race and I really hope we can get that 3/1 ML price. Has better figures and also comparable figures over all races. Stalking speed is much better than the odds on closers which is a huge advantage and Paco should have him in the right spot to reel in right off the pace. #9 Oak Bluffs is a successful sprinter that will now try to go long where success has been had. Will need to control the pace and run back to turf figures in past. #4 Fuzzy Muzzle Beyer figures are comparable to the field even though he got the perfect trip in both wins. Best turf jockey in the country is on board so is a must add to horizontal and verticals.

#5 Here’s to Mike 3/1
#9 Oak Bluffs 9/2
#4 Fuzzy Muzzle 7/2
 

Race 11: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 & 1/17 Miles, (Dirt)
#7 Freedom for D L T was a hand ride winner last time out at Parx vs. a brutal field that is comparable to this brutal card ender. Would not expect any less in this one. #4 UCantMakeItUp can’t believe another one of my stone cold saying that I wanted to take to a horse name has again been taken. Neither here nor there, adds blinkers and will probably try to get clear and wire these considering there is absolutely no pace. Last figure was by far the best of career, Rags tells me a bounce is in order. #5 LeftyGotItRight tends to tire and fade to easily and I would expect the same in this one as the figurers ahead of him are much better. Would venture to guess he’s 3 wide with my top and 2nd choice and falters late again to hold on for a piece.

#7 Freedom for D L T 8/5
#4 UCantMakeItUp 3/1
#5 LeftyGotItRight 7/2

2 thoughts on “Monmouth Park, Saturday, June 18th, 2016

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