Monmouth Park, Saturday, June 11th, 2016

Meet Record: 42 (19-7-4) – 45% Winners – 71% ITM – Best Bet: 14 (11-3-0) 78% Winners, 100% ITM
Money Invested: $2,138 – Money Returned: $6,348.10 – Total Profit – ($+4,210.10)

Last Week: 4 Top Pick Winners ($31.60), 4 Best Bet Winners ($31.60), 4 Exactas ($145.60), 3 Trifecta ($350.10), 1 Got Money to Dance Pick 4 ($294.10), 1 Tight Bankroll Pick 4 ($294.10)

We had a decent week last weekend with 4 Top Pick winners, 4 Best Bet winners, a couple small EX/TRI box booms and 2 Pick 4 hits (1 on a $4 Ticket). However, those winners and the Pick 4/5 Pool continue to be so chalky and have such little money, for the first time ever, I actually think I may be done playing them, especially this weekend with the Belmont Stakes around. A 6th choice, 5th choice, favorite, 5th choice should not be giving you a max payout of $220 and as little as $46 if favorite won instead. I am sorry but that is embarrassing and a mere travesty to the players. The card looks quite chalky, especially the back end, but there are very few stand out favorites, however the 2nd choice at 1/1 is right behind, so all the same. Was talking with a buddy, might be worst card we’ve ever seen. Get Hot Stay Hot. Chalk Up.

Early Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $36
Race 1: 1,5
Race 2: 2,4
Race 3: 1,2,8
Race 4: 4,7
Race 5: 2,5,8

Early Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $240
Race 1: 1,5,6
Race 2: 1,2,4,6
Race 3: 1,2,5,8
Race 4: 4,7
Race 5: 1,2,3,5,8

Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $18
Race 3: 1,2,8
Race 4: 4,7
Race 5: 2,5,8
Race 6: 5,6

Early Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket – $80
Race 3: 1,2,5,8
Race 4: 4,7
Race 5: 1,2,3,5,8
Race 6: 5,6

Late Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $6
Race 8: 5
Race 9: 2,6
Race 10: 5
Race 11: 1,7
Race 12: 1,2,6

Late Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $54
Race 8: 4,5
Race 9: 2,6,7
Race 10: 5
Race 11: 1,3,7
Race 12: 1,2,3,4,6,8

Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $6
Race 9: 2,6
Race 10: 5
Race 11: 1,7
Race 12: 1,2,6

Late Pick 4: (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $27
Race 9: 2,6,7
Race 10: 5
Race 11: 1,3,7
Race 12: 1,2,3,4,6,8

Race 1: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Dirt)
#5 Sixbits takes a drop in class following his ship in from NY. Beyer figures make him clearly the one to beat for a barn that also excels on turf to dirt changes. #1 Tyrrhenian had a Beyer figure that could compete with my winner but that was a sprint race while we go two turns here. Did face better in that race at the Big A but I need to see the tactical ability to change lengths here before he gets my money at 3/2. #6 All of the Chief will look to steal this one on the front end and does have early speed to do so. Think he gets caught but holds on for some show money.

#5 Sixbits 7/5
#1 Tyrrhenian 3/2
#6 All of the Chief 7/2

Race 2: Claiming, 3YO or 4YO, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#2 Warp Nine will be the one to catch. I see Rocket Man Richie going out with him, but my winner is much too fast to make it a pace duel. The closers are extremely weak in this one and really lack speed. Think this one clears and wires the field. #4 Rocket Man Richie will be out on the front with my winner and while he does not have the speed to compete with Warp Nine on the front end, does post much better figures than any of the closers to hold on for the place. #6 Seventysevenwillow will be the horse that hopes that the two pace setters exhaust themselves. Only closer that has a shot given his tactical speed in a maiden score last time out. Could clip the place pool or win if my winner is not as fast as expected and my place horse runs him dry.

#2 Warp Nine 5/2
#4 Rocket Man Richie 3/1
#6 Sevenysevenwillow 7/2

Race 3: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Turf)
#8 Twizzle comes off a layoff where he has been his best, however it does slightly concern me that this is back to back lengthy layoffs off a really strong race last time out resulting in his top Beyer figure. One would think he would be ready to fire right away after that. His versatile is what really gives me the confidence to make him my winner. Has won going away on the front end before with a soft pace and has also stalked as the lone speed and closed. This pace is extremely soft which really gives him ability to do both. Could choose to get away or hand ride as a closer. #1 Liberty St. Outlaw takes a huge drop in class compared to his last time out. Gets same jockey that road him then also which made a huge move to try and steal one. Successful trainer Nunn chooses to bring him back right away instead of running through some trainings. #2 Mach My Day switches to turf where he has shown success before. Adds blinkers and steals the inside post, both should help.

#8 Twizzle 3/2
#1 Liberty St. Outlaw 9/2
#2 Mach My Day 9/2

Race 4: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#7 Hissy Fit would be a best bet for me if coming from a closer post, however now must be perfect out of the gate and clear across to sit for a good trip and catch my second place finisher. Has been very good in the gate thus far so I don’t see a problem which should lead to that last figure and will likely be best. #4 Don’t Blame Her will be the one for my winner to catch. Will look to pull back from fractions that have buried her in the past as she has blown so many leads as the horse has been let go to run balls out at all times. #3 Belle of Bowdoin comes in for Uske who does not win much, but does always seem to pick up the show pool with a closer in a race setup like this. Will not win.

#7 Hissy Fit 7/5
#4 Don’t Blame Her 9/5
#3 Belle of Bowdoin 6/1

Race 5: Allowance, 3YO & Up, 1 & 1/17 Miles, (Turf)
Tough race to finish the Pick 5, #5 Hassah comes off a lengthy layoff with some bullet works. First race in U.S showed a great effort and very good figure even after a bad break from the outside post and later going to wide for my liking. Really only two other horses here that get me any type of excited for this race #8 Jet Majesty and #2 Bai Bai Baby look to be the only other speed in this race and if my winner is not ready to fire, could steal this one.

#5 Hassah 3/1
#8 Jet Majesty 8/1
#2 Bai Bai Baby 5/1

Race 6: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#5 How You faced much tougher in a race setup completely vs. the closers last time out. Would expect better in this one with a race setup that is now completely in his favor. Should be perfectly positioned by JJ. Up until last Saturday JJ and Navarro were undefeated together, drank too much at the track Saturday, was away Sunday and writing this during Friday’s card so I am not sure if that stat still holds, either way it’s a very good number. #6 Rambling House will make this one competitive if speed is holding on main track which you will know halfway through the day. Needs pressure from the only pace speed on the rail or will laugh the field way. #2 Social Network looks to be in a prime spot to secure the show pool. As I get here, Winston has a pretty nice score on the card. Will not Win.

#5 How You 6/5
#6 Rambling House 2/1
#2 Social Network 8/1

Race 7: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#3 Little Hitman moves back to 6 furlongs off the claim for Kelly Breen. Finished second up against a winner with a big number last time out. Looks to be the main speed vs. softer and could be tough to beat. #5 Mr. Spaceman won here last year in season opener and will look to do the same this season for trainer Jason Servis who excels in that spot. Pick your poison for 3rd, don’t have anything worthy. 3,5/3,5/All.

#3 Little Hitman 8/5
#5 Mr.Spaceman 5/2
Key Remaining

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 1/8 Miles, (Turf)
Best Bet – #5 Infinite Wisdom scored nicely for me last time out at Belmont when they let him clear and get away. Race setup looks the same here as the pace is again extremely light. Looks to be uncontested and repeat same race. #2 Tambourin adds Lasix, adds blinkers and makes U.S debut for trainer Graham Motion that excels with first time starters in America. #4 Indebted comes in off a long layoff for a barn that does excel in that spot. Does have successful experience at Monmouth.

#5 Infinite Wisdom 5/2
#2 Tambourin 4/1
#4 Indebted 3/1

Race 9: Claiming, 3 YO & UP, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#6 Scotland Bay takes a “look really into it” class drop following a win vs. non winners of 3 and now faces non winners of two. Best tactical speed in the race and also brings a high % hitting barn thus far. #2 Isi Antonia not sure what it is but my eyes refuse to move off this horses Rags and PP’s. As mentioned earlier Winston had a big score today, maybe prime for another here. Can’t second guess the gut. #7 Timna looks to be the only closing horse that can stay close and catch my winner. Jockey, Trainer, Barn has good some good numbers here going in.

#6 Scotland Bay 2/1
#2 Isi Antonia 10/1
#7 Timna 5/2

Race 10: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Triple Best Bet for me, Do everything you can to find the most value in this one. Whether it be double, Pick 3/4/5/6 Single. Win/Ex/Tri will not pay ROI, Waste – #5 Delta Bluesman put up a huge effort in a DQ last out where he was by far the best in the race. Very versatile, likes to be on the front end but has also shown success elsewhere. Looks to get all options in this one. #2 Eighty Three will hope that my winner gets into a speed duel with #3 Dad’z Laugh. Dad’z Laugh is not good enough to beat my horse in that dual but could exhaust enough for Eighty Three to clean up the closing pieces. Barn as usual has also been very good thus far.

Best Bet – #5 Delta Bluesman 7/5
#2 Eighty Three 5/2
#3 Dad’z Laugh 7/2

Race 11: Honey Bee S., 3YO & Up, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Turf)
Best Bet – #7 Joya Real was second best to an elite turf sprinter in Lady Shipman last time out. I promise you she meets absolutely no one to that caliber in this one. Needs a hot pace and I see there are a few in here to do so, don’t get scared, is usually called upon extra late. #3 Everything Lovely will be the horse that Joya Real needs to close. Has some good speed on the front end and is facing much less compared to last few. #1 Forest Funds looks good on paper with 6 wins as a turf sprinter but look at her Beyer figures compared to the rest of the fields, terrible. Therefore those 6 came vs. much softer and would be hard to predict she’s ready for performance of career here, especially on the rail. Expect her to pick up the show pieces in closing fashion.

#7 Joya Real 5/2
#3 Everything Lovely 4/1
#1 Forrest Funds 7/2

Race 12: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Dirt)
Another terrible of all terrible closing races. #1 Any Valid Saturday first start off the claim and adds blinkers. I like to see the addition of blinkers when drawing the inside post. Would believe that she should be a factor from the start. #6 Kitty Ride has me going back to Winston why not? Anyone can win this. #2 Precious Franca should improve here after getting stuck with a slow pace and crowd last time out. This race does look to have a bunch of horses who will do anything they can to wire the field. This one would be beneficiary of that.

#1 Any Valid Saturday 3/1
#6 Kitty Ride 7/2
#2 Precious Franca 5/1


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