Meet Record: 31 (15-6-2) – 48% Winners – 74% ITM – Best Bet: 10 (7-3-0) 70% Winners, 100% ITM
Money Invested: $1,802 – Money Returned: $5,201
Last Week: 2 Top Pick Winners ($19.00), 1 Best Bet Winner ($8.00), 4 exactas ($87.60), 1 Trifecta ($133.90), 1 Got Money to Dance Pick 4 ($403.70), 1 Tight Bankroll Pick 4 ($403.70)
It was a tough week for the top pick winners as 6 were 2nd best but overall was not bad as we missed out on 2 P5, 1 P6, 7 P4, $100 P3, $200 double scores by 1 juiced out Navarro horse and were still able to cash 2 Early Pick 4’s, one ticket costing a total of $7.50 and returning slightly over $400. As mentioned before, That’s always where my value lies so make sure you put those tickets in before the winners. All and All, more money onto the Money Returned section. As discussed with many this week, Navarro really starting to ruin the meet early on (for multiple reasons), along with the chalk and brutal pool totals. Will be there live with Summer Shandy on ice today, feel free to DM me for meet up and live tips as always. Get Hot Stay Hot.
Early Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $4
Race 1: 1/1A
Race 2: 1,4
Race 3: 6
Race 4: 2,3
Race 5: 4,8
Early Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $90
Race 1: 1A,3,5
Race 2: 1,4,6
Race 3: 1,6 (Add 8 If you got the Dance)
Race 4: 2,3 (Add 6 If you got the Dance)
Race 5: 3,4,5,6,8 (Add 2 If you got the Dance)
Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $2
Race 3: 6
Race 4: 2,3
Race 5: 4,8
Race 6: 4
Early Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $81
Race 3: 1,6,8
Race 4: 2,3,6
Race 5: 2,3,4,5,6,8
Race 6: 2,4,5
I will not be playing Late Pick 5 Ticket, If you feel the need, I put 1 together.
Late Pick 5 (If You Really Feel The Need Ticket) – $72
Race 7: 3,5,9
Race 8: 2,3,4,7
Race 9: 2,4,7,8
Race 10: 11
Race 11: 4,6,7
Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $24
Race 8: 2,3,4,7
Race 9: 2,4,7,8
Race 10: 11
Race 11: 4,6,7
I will not be playing Late Pick 4 Got Money to Dance Ticket, If you feel the need, I put 1 together.
Late Pick 4 (If You Really Feel The Need Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $300
Race 8: 1,2,3,4,6,7
Race 9: 2,4,6,7,8
Race 10: 1,2,5,10,11
Race 11: 3,4,6,7
Race 1: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Best Bet – Have to take a shot again on a top pick place finisher for me last week in the #1A Ruthless T. Was live to see a gate stumble and then fall shortly after in that one and still collected herself and rallied for second by a minor margin. Would have to think a clean trip and a much softer spot leads to victory in this one. #5 Miss Modela also had trouble last time out getting caught between two horses but battled the entire way to finish a game second. Was a little too amped up pre-race breaking through the gate. A more settling race this time will certainly help. #1 Sassy Silk comes into this one with good works and a Dam that has shown some success at this distance and surface. If either entry mate scratches add #3 Lizzie Queen.
Best Bet – #1A – Ruthless T. 2/1
#5 Miss Modela 5/2
#1 Sassy Silk 2/1
#3 Lizzie Queen (If either entry scratches only)
Race 2: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#1 Bully Proof will surely be a short price with Paco on board, but is just way too good for these. Takes a big drop in class, holds a pace advantage and is the lone speed. Will shoot straight for the front from the inside post and don’t think anyone will be able to reel him in. Would be a GREAT exchange wager if the rail gives him trouble out of the gate as he needs the front. #4 Billypaysthebills makes 3rd start off the layoff and is the lone horse in this race that has the ability to stay close. If Bully Proof shows any rail troubles or shows up flat, this one will surely be there to take care of that victory clean up. #6 Here’s Spartacus comes in for a barn that excels with runners making 2nd start off the layoff. Will also hope that my winner has rail struggles or is in fact flat as that will play perfectly into this one’s hands in closing fashion.
#1 Bully Proof 1/1
#4 Billypaysthebills 9/2
#6 Here’s Sparacus 4/1
Race 3: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 1/16 Miles, (Turf)
Best Bet – #6 Tybalt’s Queen finished 3rd as the heavy favorite last time out but got absolutely no pace which is needed and still put up a Beyer figure that makes her the one to beat here. As mentioned, does need a heavy pace, but the race setup looks like she gets it. #1/1A Entry like Dance N Denae much more then Peggy O’Prado (who will probably be scratched anyway). Looks to be the one setting up the pace for my winner and could wire the field if she gets clear quickly in the opening stages. Beyer figure 2 races back puts her in contention. #8 Brockolini runs best off the layoff and has been sitting since December. Jockey upgrade will also make a difference. May need another one with Nicky to get to the wire first, but will not leave off my tickets due to past success in this spot.
#6 Tybalt’s Queen 5/2
#1/1A Entry Dance N Denae/Peggy O’Prado 6/1
#8 Brockolini 9/2
Race 4: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#2 Jacapo ties my hands in giving him another shot in this one. Looking back on the last race it was a really tough trip start to finish, not to mention the horse was pounded with pressure from multiple angles which led to some ridiculous splits yes, but forced the hand too much leading to a falter as it was a clear closer setup when all said and done. Draws inner post in this one with only one horse that can pressure which could lead to a Rickey Henderson 1st to 2nd steal. #3 Starship Thor is a must add right now for the juiced up Navarro horses and JJ is undefeated on board this meet for Navarro. Will be the main pace and pressure threat to my winner and probably the one to beat but I’m not sold on the Beyer figure transition turf to MTO. Don’t think anyone in this slot can win the race but will take a mere shot with #6 Jumpin Frac Flash for my 3rd place selection. Could have put any of the others in this short field here. If you are playing the trifecta I’d go key/key/All.
#2 Jacapo 5/2
#3 Starship Thor 6/5
#6 Jumpin Frac Flash 3/1
Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Turf)
Tough race to finish the Pick 5, if Monmouth wasn’t so chalky could be a ALL in both the Pick 4 and 5 but really not feasible at this point, at this track. Really do not have faith in any of these with surface changes, distance changes, love for not finishing first but ITM, lack of jockey success, lack of trainer success, short layoffs, long layoffs, so much up in the air here. My arm hair length lean goes to #8 Wild Wild Who as mentioned runs in second way too much for my taste but where else do I go? I lean towards the statistics of consistent good turf Beyer figures and possibly the lone early speed. If he clears across clean could be the winner but is he game off a short layoff? #4 Run for Logistics gets Monmouth’s finest on board with a good statistical RIO with Plesa at this track, distance and surface. However, Paco has dominated the ITM percentage this year on turf but has yet to yield a winner there this meet while writing this. #3 Snowday if my winner is not game could be the uncontested horse on the lead and try to take it home. Also refuse to be beat by #5 Two Notch Road, #6 Brothersoftime and possibly #2 Partyallnightlong
#8 Wild Wild Who 3/1
#4 Run for Logistics 5/2
#3 Snowday 5/1
Must Add – #5 Two Notch Road
Must Add – #6 Brothersoftime
Questionable Add – #2 Partyallnightlong
Race 6: Starter Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Best Bet – #4 Shaft of Light is another Navarro horse with undefeated JJ on board. Clearly the one to beat after 90 Beyer figures in 2 of last 3 starts. One of those 90 figures comes in a race at this distance. Navarro excels on the turn back in distance and anything near that 90 figure should be a hand ride win going away. #2 El Grande Rojo looks to take a typical second start off the layoff step forward. Nicky is on board and will be looking to out close my best bet winner on the turn. #5 Javerre comes into this one following a game second last time out. May be third wide of my top two picks closing but if Shaft of Light decides to join in on the up front dual, could benefit with my second choice for a clear closing path.
Best Bet – #4 Shaft of Light 6/5
#2 El Grande Rojo 7/2
#5 Javerre 4/1
Race 7: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 & 1/17 Miles, (Turf)
A trio of very tough races following the cake walk and this starts the Pick 5. My arm hair length top selection goes to #5 Built for Profit had a troubled start last time out which turned into a troubled trip getting hung four wide. Faced much better and still looked to have horse left and was willing to fire if not for the circumstances. I expect better second time of the layoff here. Slight concern with both Jockey and Trainer. #3 Bronze Bull drops out of a maiden special that he never really had a chance in due to the slow fractions. Will be interested to watch how this one plays out for virtual stable and a nice price to start the Pick 5. Probable ATB play at anything over 5/1. #9 Salt Mine gets my dart board throw for 3rd. As mentioned earlier, Paco is cleaning house in the place and show pool on the turf at the meet thus far.
#5 Built for Profit 3/1
#3 Bronze Bull 8/1
#9 Salt Mine 4/1
Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Dirt)
Part 2 of the extremely tough races as I can make an argument for all but the 5 to win this one. I will take a shot with #7 Jersey Blues looks to be placed in a prime time spot here as the pace up front will be extremely hot and that’s where this horse excels. Will be first start of season, but should be fresh for Mazza. Paco will stalk and pounce on the turn looking to repeat an effort of both career wins at this distance and track. Cannot leave off any ticket #3 I’m Steppin It Up will be the hot pacemaker that my winner must catch. Will look to shoot out of the gate and wire this field. Has shown a knack for getting caught which is why I played against but the cut back to mile could change that here. #2 Eel comes into this one following a huge score and some very good works. A few concerns that make me put him here is the several horses that will pressure up top and the two turn try for the first time. Cannot leave off any ticket #4 Gomebey Dancer, #1 Percussion and #6 Ravelo’s Boy.
#7 Jersey Blues 6/1
#3 I’m Steppin It Up 4/1
#2 Eel 5/2
Must Add – #4 Gomebey Dancer
Must Add – #1 Percussion
Must Add – #6 Ravelo’s Boy
Race 9: Allowance, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Part 3 of the extremely tough races gives my arm hair length lean to #4 We B Jammin was up against a hot pace up top last time out which is completely vs. his style. This sprint is much lighter on speed to the point that he may even be able to decide how he wants to go about the race in terms of wire to wire or stalk the slow pace in closing fashion. Has a good jockey on board along with a trainer who is very keen to these decisions. #7 No More Music will sit next to my winner if he decides to stalk. Will also be greatly helped by the slow pace up top and I could see this one and my winner in a dual down the stretch. Like the barns numbers a lot following breaks. #8 Mello Groove was a top pick winner for me a few back but faces much tougher in this one and takes a step up in class. Could win but think he takes a step backwards here following a big number vs. horses that let him take any lane he wanted to hand ride away. Cannot leave off ticket #2 Padre Graz.
#4 We Be Jammin 4/1
#7 No More Music 5/2
#8 Mello Groove 7/2
Must Add – #2 Padre Graz
Race 10: Crank It Up S., 3YO, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Turf)
Best Bet – #11 Brandy’s Girl last Beyer figure was huge over this field and anything close to that will be more than enough. A few concerns, possible bounce and the wide post draw as best work is always done on the front end. #10 Tippling Ways uses her tactical speed very well and needed it in her debut score. Will again need that as there are many pace setters, could again setup nicely. #1 Ramblin N Gamblin has some nice speed and draws the rail to get right to it early and wire the group. Servis is a very good turf sprinter trainer at Monmouth IMO.
#11 Brandy’s Girl 3/1
#10 Tippling Ways 10/1
#1 Ramblin N Gamblin 7/2
Race 11: Maiden Special Weight, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
A really bad field unfortunately ends the day here. Hopefully I will have already cashed out as the Pick 4 and 5 tickets in small Monmouth pools will add up to be too much for my bankroll. #6 Definitely Tonight had a nice effort last time out and should improve right? #7 Barney Mac is the only horse in the race that has show any speed and that factor will be the mere and only factor that separates him from the rest. If runs anything close to the number in previous start should be a wire to wire as long as the slide over is clear. #4 Shuffle Up has Paco on board who never wins the last race of the day as proved again last week and will be the even money favorite yet again. Somehow I keep adding him to my tickets though, even as I continue to give you the stat. STAY AWAY!
#6 Definitely Tonight 7/2
#7 Barney Mac 6/1
#4 Shuffle Up 9/5
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