Monmouth Park, Saturday, May 28th, 2016

Meet Record: 22 (13-1-2) 59% Winners, 72% ITM – Best Bet 6 (6-0-0) 100% Winners, 100% ITM
Money Invested: $1,368 – Money Returned:$4,145.10

Last Week: 7 Top Pick Winners ($66.00), 4 Best Bet Winners ($34.60), 4 Exacta’s ($77.20), 1 Trifecta ($20.40), 4 Cold Double ($42.80), 1 Got Money to Dance Pick 5 ($127.80), 1 Tight Bankroll Pick 5 ($127.80) 2 Got Money to Dance Pick 4 ($272.55), 2 Tight Bankroll Pick 4 ($272.55)

Happy Memorial Day Weekend! We continued the good start in my promise of over 10K profit and 40% winners during the entire meet last week with 7 Top Pick Winners. Was ecstatic that the rain held off as I mentioned my best bets were late in the card and we hit 6 straight going away. Was really hoping that this card would be juiced up on Memorial day weekend and that it would start halting the chalk, but the fields are extremely short. Cannot deny that the chalk is getting extremely frustrating and nearly unplayable for any of us Monmouth veterans and even the young guns I converse with. Something needs to change. Anywho, Let’s keep this crazy train on the rails. Bringing my Dad on Saturday, need to make him some money now to! As Always, keep an eye on Pick 4/5 and Top Pick winner changes in the morning on Twitter after scratches. Lastly, If you have the money, go away from my Paco single in the last race, I will be. As stated last week and topped off with 4 odds on favorite losers back to back Saturday’s and Sunday’s, He NEVER wins the last race of day. Get Hot Stay Hot.

Early Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $54
Race 1: 1,3,4
Race 2: 2,6
Race 3: 1,2
Race 4: 1,5,8
Race 5: 1,3,5

Early Pick 5 (If You’re Crazy Ticket) – $480
Race 1: 1,3,4,6
Race 2: 2,5,6
Race 3: 1,2,3,5
Race 4: 1,3,5,8
Race 5: 1,3,4,5,6

Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $27
Race 3: 1,2
Race 4: 1,5,8
Race 5: 1,3,5
Race 6: 1,2,5

Early Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $120
Race 3: 1,2,3,5
Race 4: 1,3,5,8
Race 5: 1,3,4,5,6
Race 6: 1,2,5

Late Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $12
Race 6: 1,2,5
Race 7: 3,4
Race 8: 4,6
Race 9: 6,9
Race 10: 4

Late Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $108
Race 6: 1,2,5
Race 7: 1,3,4
Race 8: 3,4,6
Race 9: 1,3,6,9
Race 10: 3,4

Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $4
Race 7: 3,4
Race 8: 4,6
Race 9: 6,9
Race 10: 4

Late Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $36
Race 7: 1,3,4
Race 8: 3,4,6
Race 9: 1,3,6,9
Race 10: 3,4

Race 1: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Dirt)
Brutal opener as I cannot talk you off of any single one of these. My literal arm hair lean goes to #3 Ruthless T who fell out of the gate last time out and then “lost the rider”. Is dangerous only when on the front end and would be successful with a clean trip up front. #4 Urban Sombrero takes a big class drop but why after the recent figure? Maybe I’m looking too much into it, if so, this is your winner going away. Must add to Pick 4/5. #1 U.S Point did not fare well in debut, but has some very good works coming in which would indicate she may be better than what we have seen. Enters with Lasix for the second time and Wilson is a very nice 22%-win rate at this distance and surface.

#3 Ruthless T 2/1
#4 Urban Sombrero 3/1
#1 U.S Point 8/1

Race 2: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Turf)
Best Bet – #2 Money Illusion has lost as the favorite in last two attempts which does give me some concern here. However, was game in last race and has faced much better then these. Appears to be lone speed with top speed figures in race while in a field of no speed. #6 FiveKindsofCrazy expecting a better race from this one as the last looked like a bounce after 2 very good speed figure races. Ferrer is on board who is cleaning up over the last 2 weeks. #5 Over The Limit has the combination of Gonzales and Navarro. What Navarro has done at the meet thus far is quite ridiculous and what they have done together is very good also. Don’t count out #4 Trapon at 15/1. Expected better last weekend when added to both my tickets and was really not impressed, may just need another one here, will have my eyes and will be in a few small tickets if the ML stays anything over 10/1.

Best Bet – #2 Money Illusion 2/1
#6 FiveKindsOfCrazy 6/1
#5 Over The Limit 7/2
#4 Trapon 15/1

Race 3: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile & 70 Yards, (Dirt)#2 Firsthand Report comes back for Pletcher with a Beyer figure much the best even while tiring and blowing a pretty secure lead. Expect that figure or better with a close out in this one. #1 Red River Heidi will be interesting to see how this horse runs. May try and dual Firsthand Report on the front or let the two to the immediate right do the work and stalk. Don’t think the dual or stalk is won, but it wouldn’t be crazy to see Firsthand Report closed again by another horse with stalking speed if given the right trip. #3 Bold Quality may need a few more races under the belt to compete with these. However, will be the 3rd horse up front with the decision of running away or stalking. Would say this one is 3rd best in the race setup I expect.

#2 Firsthand Report 9/5
#1 Red River Heidi 7/2
#3 Bold Quality 2/1

Race 4: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Turf)
#8 Shoo Daddy looks to be the main speed of a race that will be lacking any type of pace. If the trip across is clean, will greatly benefit from the shorter distance and could run away with it. #5 Spanish Armada has to be threat returning to the turf. However, I’ve mentioned this to people several times in the past. Going from a cement Turf at Gulfstream to a forgiving Turf at Monmouth takes an adjustment. May need another 1 and you have to shave some time off the Gulfstream figures. #1 Dothraki Warrior hates winning, but loves to be in the money. Expect him to be too far back as always to be a factor but clean the show late.

#8 Shoo Daddy 9/2
#5 Spanish Armada 3/1
#1 Dothraki Warrior 5/2

Race 5: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Dirt)
Have to roll right back to #5 One For Don for my second straight top selection on him this meet. Secured a $77 double for my followers and I last time out and his last efforts, including Beyer figures are much the best. Will go first off the claim for successful Monmouth barn and makes an extremely fast turnaround for a sprinter which I always like. #1/1A Entry both have top end speed and it would seem will stay in and work together to set up a going away trip with MyBrotherJohnnyA while Conquest Outlaw will stalk that pace if exhaustion comes before the wire. #3 Just Ace will also enter in here for Sacco, essentially making this a split entry. I think my winner is better and faster, However, always found it shady when you have 6 multiple entries in one race, if they all stay, we don’t know the plan. Tread lightly.

#5 One For Don 5/2
#1/1A 6/1
#3 Just Ace 2/1

Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Turf)
Finding a hard time going against #1 Chamois. Class is well above these and takes a cut in distance after posting a speed figure well and above these also. Not much of a fan of Jockey or Trainer on short money despite their numbers together so this will be merely in my Pick 4/5 and will probably spread my winning bet elsewhere. #5 Nuciefra should get a very hot pace to sit behind. Needs to make the commitment to a stalking trip instead of continuing to gas on the front end and falter late. Has best closing speed, needs to be used correctly. #2 Cement Clement cuts back in distance after weakening on the front end at 9 furlongs so this should easily work in his favor. However, to many other horses love it hot up front so he will be contested all the way around and caught late if he does not get away early.

#1 Chamois 2/1
#5 Nuciefra 9/2
#2 Cement Clement 5/2

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile & 70 Yards, (Dirt)
#3 Conviction posted speed figure last time out much better than this and have posted several better along the way. Pletcher enters him into quite the ideal spot here as he improved last time out going longer vs. better. Hardest competition in race will come from his stablemate #4 Fetisov who failed on the turf in debut and now switches to dirt for Pletcher who bangs the win rate in second time starter surface switches better than anyone in the game. #1 Buon Gusto will likely use the inside post position to jump right out to the front as the early speed. Has had some troubled trips out of the gate costing him a few times, need to see that cleaned up before I can put my money on.

#3 Conviction 9/5
#4 Fetisov 2/1
#1 Buon Gusto 4/1

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & UP, 1 Mile, (Turf)
Best Bet – #4 Al Khazaaliya will start a $100 Best Bet single,single,single Pick 3 for me and will be really tough to beat in the form he is in right now. Would be coming into this one looking for 3rd straight victory if it wasn’t for a photo finish loss last time out. Beyer’s are better than the rest, training tabs are better than the rest, last bullet work is better than the rest and best tactical horse in the race. Will be in prime stalking position ready to roll on the turn. #6 Sea Coast has yet to win in the U.S.A despite being game in all 3. Good Beyer figures and as stated earlier, the connections I can’t stand are very successful. Still will never pay for it at even money. #3 Resilient One is my pick your poison selection. A few could go in this slot, if playing the TRI select ALL. Would venture to say Decarlo will not be the jockey tomorrow and a rider upgrade could help. Not winning.

Best Bet – #4 Al Khazaaliya 5/2
#6 Sea Coast 3/1
#3 Resilient One 6/1

Race 9: John J. Reilly H., 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Best Bet – #6 Green Gratto is going to be extremely tough to catch. The book will tell you 3 straight losses, but look at the times and pace in those, everything extremely hot up top. This one lacks pace and will be a huge advantage. Faces easier competition in state breds and has a +100 speed figure to boot vs. this field. Would not be surprised if he clears and wires the field in a hand ride. #9 Visionary Ruler makes first start of the claim for sizzling hot Navarro. Not only is he smoking this meet, he has also always been very successful with horses off the claim. #3 Saucy Don has struggled recently in sprints but I see a better effort to come with rising jockey Nicky to grab his first ITM piece in some time.

Best Bet – #6 Green Gratto 3/1
#9 Visionary Ruler 6/1
#3 Saucy Don 4/1

Race 10: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Best Bet – #4 Pico is an absolute stand out on the card and in the finale. I stated last week and earlier PACO NEVER EVER WINS IN THE FINALE. Juice your tickets on one without him and single him on another ticket, but let me tell you something, If he doesn’t win this one, that may be my best stat in my arsenal because this should not be close. As hard as I try like the last two weeks finding the winner over him, there is NOTHING compelling behind him at all, I mean nothing. I mean seriously, look at the crop behind this horse? I’m sorry, I just can’t do it. Will tweet on the juiced ticket adds tomorrow afternoon.

Best Bet – #4 Pico 6/5


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