Monmouth Park, Saturday, May 21st, 2016

Meet Record: 11 (6-1-1) 54% Winners, 72% ITM – Best Bet 2 (2-0-0) 100% Winners, 100% ITM

Money Invested: $646 – Money Returned: $3,064.20

Last Week: 6 Top Pick Winners ($77.50), 3 Cold Exacta ($92.80), 2 Cold Double ($34.60), 1 Got Money to Dance Pick 5 ($1,326.90), 1 Got Money to Dance Pick 4 ($766.20), 1 Tight Bankroll Pick 4 ($766.20)

We got off to a good start in my promise of over 10K profit and 40% winners during the entire meet. Will hope to continue that this week; however I really don’t like the circumstances to do so. NJ has contradicting weather reports, some have mid day downpour, and some say it will hold till after race card while others say no rain at all. I would definitely make many adjustments on the fly, but will probably not have the ability to do so on here. If it stays fast and firm play away, if not start to tread lightly. Additionally, the beginning of the card till Race 5 is very tough. Would really be unfortunate if my big plays and singles later on are altered by the rain. Happy Sloppy Preakness Day. Cherry Wine? Get Hot Stay Hot.

DELETE TICKETS WITH SURFACE CHANGES, MY TICKETS ARE BASED ON FAST AND FIRM!

Early Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $27
Race 1: 8,9
Race 2: 1,2,3
Race 3: 2,3,7
Race 4: 3,6,8
Race 5: 1

Early Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $200
Race 1: 1,6,8,9,10
Race 2: 1,2,3,5
Race 3: 1,2,3,4,7
Race 4: 1,3,6,8
Race 5: 1 (If you have a better dance than I do, add the 3)

Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $9
Race 3: 2,3,7
Race 4: 3,6,8
Race 5: 1
Race 6: 4

Early Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $60
Race 3: 1,2,3,4,7
Race 4: 1,3,6,8
Race 5: 1,3
Race 6: 2,3,4

Late Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $4
Race 7: 4,8
Race 8: 3
Race 9: 1,7
Race 10: 2
Race 11: 1,4

Late Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $216
Race 7: 2,4,8
Race 8: 1,3,5
Race 9: 1,4,7,9
Race 10: 1,2,3,4
Race 11: 1,4,9

Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $2
Race 8: 3
Race 9: 1,7
Race 10: 2
Race 11: 1,4

Late Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $72
Race 8: 1,3,5
Race 9: 1,4,7,9
Race 10: 1,2,3,4
Race 11: 1,4,9

Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Turf)
In a match of two elite turf jockey’s at their own perspective homes, #8 Super Stan opens the card on the turf with the best (regardless if I hate him or not) turf jockey at Monmouth Park, Joey Bravo. Has posted very good figures and is quicker than this bunch. With that being said Joey loves to sit far back on the turf races and that horse falters there. Needs to stay close and Plesa Jr. needs to let Joey know that in the morning. #9 Stockyard gets Antonio Gallardo on board from Tampa Bay Downs. Antonio is considered by some to be a top 10 jockey in the world and he has cleaned up on the Tampa Bay turf for some time. I’ve always found the Tampa Turf to be slightly quicker, so a softer surface and learning curve here are my negatives. #12 Cavity is my next pick if the rain holds as he will AE in for the MTO horse. Beyer figures are second to none in this one but the money will be way too short for me for a horse that LOVES to run 2nd.

#8 Super Stan 7/2
#9 Stockyard 5/2
#12 Cavity 7/2

Race 2: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Hate to be that guy but really have two top picks here. #2 Rockette Jet and #1 Scotland Boy are both the pace setters and may get in a duel up front right away. If they do Scotland Boy will win in a run away, if Rockette Jet slightly stalks, she is the winner. She can hang as long as she doesn’t exhaust herself on the front end. I think this one will be prime off the layoff, but it’s the ride that determines the outcome.  #1 Scotland Boy is coming off best figure of her career and is prime for a bounce here if stalked/challenged. #3 Don’s Escapade broke her maiden here last time out off essentially the exact same length of layoff, will look to pick of the pieces late from what’s left on top.

#2 Rockette Jet 12/1
#1 Scotland Boy 1/1
#3 Don’s Escapade 3/1

Race 3: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#2 Gemonade ran gamely on only start on the main track. Tried to run with a hot pace in that one and ended up faltering late to future winners. Learning from past vs. weaker should stalk here and be in prime position late to take over before the wire with some of the top speed figures in entire race. #3 Malala comes off the layoff with some very good works leading up to this one. Field is weaker than she is used to but is a closer in a need of a hot pace and I’m not sure she gets it. Hoping my winner chooses to stalk with her and not set, if my winner sets, Malala is your winner. #7 Beautiful Success as stated last week, can never ever count Lopez/Sacco at Monmouth out of the money on the main track. Would be silly not to include in some fashion.

#2 Gemonade 12/1
#3 Malala 7/2
#7 Beautiful Success 2/1

Race 4: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 1/16 Miles, (Turf)
#8 Mini Cosmo looks to be the pace and speed while I would rather see this one on the dirt as an elite contender, Bravo would rather see this one on the turf for an elite contender to him. Field seems super weak to me and absolutely up in the air. Horse has not done anything on the Turf to have me say no thank you and I can’t count out Bravo who loves taking the midday crowd on his back. #3 Inside the Pipe has a beautiful post draw and great tactical speed for his style of racing. Both could lead to an ideal trip to make a big move on the turn. Beyer figures would also agree with me. My concern is that when you draw this perfect thing up, it never goes perfect, if one thing goes wrong such as position, break or the move, so does first place for this one. Have to include #6 Film Making as a mere what this horse could be but can you honestly put your money on what will be a 1/1 or 4/5 shot with these past performances? I can’t.

#8 Mini Cosmo 7/2
#3 Inside the Pipe 5/1
#6 Film Making 5/2

Race 5: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Dirt)
Best Bet – #1 Social Stranger has not only some of the best Beyer figures in the field but also on the day. Can’t go wrong with Navarro at Monmouth. Has early speed, lone speed and draws the inside post to use it in a race that has no speed, pace or flow. Should roll. #3 Tarpon should benefit given from no pace scenario. Did ok going long and will try again. Has been successful in career with best Beyer figures when coming off a layoff. Expect a repeat here but still not enough. Pick your poison for 3rd. I will go with #2 Full Pads who given the no pace scenario, I could see deciding to run out early and get away. It won’t be enough however but could only get caught by 2 and hold on to the show. Will not be in my Pick 4 or 5.

#1 Social Stranger 9/5 – Best Bet
#3 Tarpon 10/1
#2 Full Pads 6/1

Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Best Bet – #4 Awesome Slew battled in the Grade 2 Stanford which is a much better field than the rest. Has to be a big threat in an allowance optional sprint. I would also argue that the layoff was deserved. Is very versatile, can be placed where needed, will be tough. IMO the only threat to my winner, #3 Town Policy will break the gate hard and fast and try to go wire to wire and hold off my winning beast behind him. If rode correctly, with the winner chasing instead of sitting, could steal this one. Must add in Pick 4 if you can go deep in case he holds on. #2 Midnight Drifter Bravo/Servis ROI and ITM% at Monmouth together is a must add to the money pools.

#4 Awesome Slew 2/1 – Best Bet
#3 Town Policy 5/2
#2 Midnight Drifter 7/2

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 3YO & Up, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Dirt)
#8 More Trix has quite the pedigree with Paco Lopez on board. Dam has won five races for roughly 240k while the sire was a multiple graded stakes winning sprinter. Comes into this one with a few bullets and also decent works, with a field that has 1 threat. #4 Fairbanks E Jet is that sole threat. Drastically lacks the speed to compete with More Tix, but that tells you all you need to know about what’s behind as I have this one second. Will need something extremely hot up front for a late exhausting close. #2 Sue’s Stones has a good Beyer figure coming into this one but literally got it hand wrapped with a bow. Either bounces, doesn’t get the Santa Clause trip or runs that number and it’s still not enough for the top 2. Added merely to the Pick 5 in case More Trix is all pedigree hype and the race completely breaks down. Definitely removable if you are trying to slim.

#8 More Trix 3/1
#4 Fairbanks E Jet 9/2
#2 Sue’s Stones 7/2

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Best Bet – #3 Defer Heaven will be quick out of the gate for successful Monmouth trainer Navarro. Is the lone speed of the race in a sprint none to less which should be way too much for these. Lost his 5th straight win streak last time out in a race setup that was completely vs. his style. If he runs to any of his Beyer figures he will be furlongs away. #1 El Charro I like much better than his entry mate. If the winner does not get away early this will be the threat in a closing fashion, however think this distance may be too short and if the winner is too far away you know Bravo is packing it in early. #5 Chipit can’t leave out Paco/Pletcher combination on Paco’s home turf with new competition joining the circuit.

#3 Defer Heaven 2/1 – Best Bet
#1/1A Entry 9/2
#5 Chipit 5/2

Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 1/16 Miles, (Turf)
#7 Riviere Du Loup will hope it is still on the turf at this point as both the Beyer figures and the connections put the rest of these to shame and far behind. #1 Street Lord is more appealing to me then his coupled entry. Unlike my winner, would rather have the dirt surface but has not been bad on turf when being able to get away out front and clear. Fractions are much quicker than when others are around. #9 Super Spender will be the one looking to clean up the pieces behind my winner and 2nd selection. Will look to reel what is hot up front late, but think this is as far as that gets.

#7 Riviere Du Loup 3/1
#1/1A Entry 7/2
#9 Super Spender 8/1

Race 10: Majestic Light S. 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Dirt)
Best Bet – #2 Bradester reminds me of some very great days at Monmouth last summer. Ran big ones over and over again which I believe included the Monmouth Cup and Salvator Mile. Also remembering him losing one when he stumbled out of the gate and was forced to stalk instead of set which is not his specialty. Would need to be put away very early on, just don’t see it at all. #4 Albano will probably try to match Bradester the entire way and make the first or last move to beat him. He may run with him but Bradester is to game to be beat at his own race. #3 Adirondack King continues to improve Beyer figures race after race. Another Beyer improvement and this one would actually beat these so I had to add him to the money to dance tickets. However, also in a prime spot for a bounce.

#2 Bradester 7/5 – Best Bet
#4 Albano 8/1
#3 Adirondack King 4/1

Race 11: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#4 One for Don can’t say enough about how much this horse has won for me at Monmouth. Yes the W% stinks, he blows short price a lot and rarely hits the big price, but how about that W% at Monmouth 66% with Gallardo and Ness, Sign me up for it again. #1 Libery St. Outlaw I like more than coupled entry. Returns from first start off a layoff. I know very little about the trainer but the statistics are very good in a short sample size at both Monmouth, first start off layoffs and W% in those spots. Major Threat. #9 Bama Bound Paco Lopez with Jason Servis at Monmouth with both the best tactical speed and versatility in the race. I know this is crazy but I’ve been going for 18+ years. I don’t know the stat, but I would bet a hefty amount of my saving Paco wins at less than 5% on the last race of a card. Over and Over again he’s a heavy favorite and he never ever cashes. I know that has nothing to do with horse, surface, trainer etc. I’m just saying I know it’s not good at all and I won’t be paying for the short price to see it again here.

#4 One for Don 3/1
#1 Liberty St. Outlaw 6/1
#9 Bama Bound 5/2

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE. PICKS & ANALYSIS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE MERELY OPINIONS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. PICKS DO NOT GUARANTEE ANY SUCCESSFUL OUTCOMES WHATSOEVER. PICKS ARE PROVIDED TO GUIDE YOUR STRATEGY TO PLAYING THE RACES. MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE IN NO WAY INTENDED TO ENCOURAGE GAMBLING. WHERE LEGAL, ALL WAGERS SHOULD BE MADE RESPONSIBLY AND ARE DONE SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.

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