Monmouth Park, Saturday, May 14th, 2016

Very excited for the Monmouth Meet to begin. This will be my 18th straight opening day since my dad introduced me to this beautiful place, and you can find me there nearly every single Saturday and Sunday of the entire meet. I have been very successful at Monmouth and I hope to provide you with the same success over the meet writing for Dano. I will keep a results tab at the top for inquires also. If you ever want to meet up or have questions, please feel free to reach out on twitter @ryne_olsen and I will respond with my location or answer. This year will be slightly different for me also as I now also have some % ownership in some of these runners, so looking forward to that. I have been colder than a 711 Pina Colada Slurpee over the last 2 months, so I hope to get it going here early and often and not let that drag out. Get Hot Stay Hot.

Early Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket): $6
Race 1: 7
Race 2: 1,6,8
Race 3: 6
Race 4: 3,5
Race 5: 2,3

Early Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket): $240
Race 1: 2,7
Race 2: 1,2,6,8
Race 3: 3,6,7
Race 4: 1,3,5,6
Race 5: 2,3,4,6,8

Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket): $2
Race 3: 6
Race 4: 3,5
Race 5: 2,3
Race 6: 5

Early Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket): $120
Race 3: 3,6,7
Race 4: 1,3,5,6
Race 5: 2,3,4,6,8
Race 6: 2,3,5,7

Late Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket): $6
Race 7: 5
Race 8: 2,10
Race 9: 7
Race 10: 2,4,7
Race 11: 5,7

Late Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket): $144
Race 7: 1,2,4,5
Race 8: 2,10
Rae 9: 1,2,7,8
Race 10: 2,4,7
Race 11: 5,7,8

Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket): $6
Race 8: 2,10
Race 9: 7
Race 10: 2,4,7
Race 11: 5,7

Late Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket): $36
Race 8: 2,10
Race 9: 1,2,7,8
Race 10: 2,4,7
Race 11: 5,7,8

Race 1: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Best Bet – #7 Brother Bobo couldn’t find an argument to beat the best jockey on board over the last several years to open up the meet. Has gotten royally screwed by Gulfstream over the last 5 months, making Paco ecstatic to be back home. As for the horse, has the best speed and very versatile in terms of position. Should stalk the pace. Kelly Breen has had great success early on at Monmouth also. #2 Mongolian Chrome will be a tough test for Brother Bobo as they are essentially the same horse. Drops down in price off the claim and also very versatile in position. Winner could very well end up being the one with best stalking spot. Slight concern on a bounce, best figures out of nowhere, repeat would win but I have to see it twice to pay. #5 Blast Away struggled going a mile in tiring fashion so a drop to sprint could be exactly what this horse needs. The jockey, trainer, barn numbers are impossible for me to back in the win position, Bad.

#7 Brother Bobo 5/2 – Best Bet
#2 Mongolian Chrome 2/1
#5 Blast Away 7/2

Race 2: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile & 70 Yards, (Dirt)
Going to take a shot vs. one of my own here with #6 Untamed a veteran horse, who has a ton of experience at Monmouth park and the best races have come on that surface. J.J is on board who excels with the vets and is having a sneaky good year winning at a 22% clip. If you eliminate the races outside of Monmouth park the numbers become much different, especially ITM% which as I mentioned is really my main spot for this horse. One of my own and the likely winner #8 SourcesandMethods is the horse to beat but will be way to small of a price for me. Looks to be taking a drop in class but is actually rising. Could be the lone speed horse that may choose to set the pace and wire the field instead of stalk what is being set which has hurt him in the past. #1 Jonesy Boy take a big drop in class even while posting best Beyer figure last time out. Also has best Beyer figures among these but why the long layoff and the massive drop after success? Must add in the Pick 5 if this is a what looks too good to be true is not, but this will be my first large exchange wager of the day.

#6 Untamed 6/1
#8 SourcesandMethods 5/2
#1 Jonesy Boy 9/5

Race 3: Claiming, 3YO & UP, 1 1/16 Miles, (Turf)
#6 Royal Moment ran best race of career last time out, 1st time off the claim. Followed that up with a bullet work leading me to believe he is improving not taking a step backward in this one. May not even need top Beyer figure that he posted last time out as the tactical speed will allow Paco to pick whatever he wants. #3 Talent Show returns from a long layoff in a very ideal spot. Race lacks any type of pace setter outside of this one and Jose Ferrer could try and really use that to his advantage to get to far away to catch. I think Royal Moment gets him, but not sure any others will close that pace. #7 Broughton Kitten makes first start of the 2016 campaign and first since November. Though the book is very un-impressive and I agree, outside of the 2 starts at Golden Gate and the 1 start at Indiana Grand, this horse has faced an entire field better than him, and entire field better than all in this race outside of Royal Moment in every single other race. May catch some by surprise here ITM vs. horses of his own talent and not well behind it. However, the 9/2 morning line seems Brad Thomas is having the same thoughts as me.

#6 Royal Moment 2/1
#3 Talent Show 7/2
#7 Broughton Kitten 9/2

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#5 Ignorant Heist gets my tough race lean here. Has had the best works and several bullets leading up to this one. The dam was a two time graded stakes dirt sprint winner (Blind Devotion). Sounds like a recipe of success to me. #3 Leofric solid sire connections make this a Ryne Olsen statistical play. The average win with sire firsters are at about 10% overall, these are a solid 4% over that mark. Does not sound like a lot but in the long run surely is. #6 Scrap Iron Phil is the best of the one’s that already have a race/races under their belt. Most recent figure is the top Beyer number among these. If you lean to previous starters this is your winner, if you lean to firsters with bullets, then my pick is. Pick your poison.

#5 Ignorant Heist 5/1
#3 Leofric 9/5
#6 Scrap Iron Phil 2/1

Race 5: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Dirt)
#3 Lil Red Caboose has Daniel Centeno on board who is an absolute beast in sprint races. If you haven’t followed him during the winter check the guy’s stats out at Tampa Bay Downs. Some, consider Antonio Gallardo a top 10 Jockey in the world. Centeno overtook him in not one but the last two meets (4 months x2) in W% in sprint races and on the dirt and just missed the main track and turf by 2 winners. His ROI last time I checked in these races was also over $8 and change! He’s not rolling $2.20 winners. Trainer knows how to spot them at Monmouth, always has and I have to back him here vs. a weak field of sprinters IMO. I think the horse needs about half as much of what the others need with him on board to do the rest in his style of racing. #2 Don’s Marsh comes off a 9-month layoff at a track where he has only finished out of the money 3 times ever (2 of which were gate stumbles). Put the math together, 4 divided by 5, horse is ITM 80% of the time at Monmouth over the last two years. How could I expect any different based on what’s in the field? #4 Guinness Spice is a straight up barn statistic play with maiden claimers in first starts. 32% ITM with a $5.00 ROI. 10/1 sign me up for a Superfecta key. I do think this race is wide open, I also have power points on Pico and LWI Love Me Do to win to add in the Super.

#3 Lil Red Caboose 4/1
#2 Don’s Marsh 2/1
#4 Guinness Spice 10/1

Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#5 Bustin Out was extremely good and sharp last summer here winning me a ton of money in single opportunities. I know the layoff has been lengthy, but if you are a statistical player, that Beyer figure last time out tops the field. Can be versatile and set a race with no pace or sit off something hot up front. #7 Rowd E Allie is also very tactical and versatile. If Bustin Out is not yet live after this lengthy layoff, will be tough to beat as she is already not far off from being the top selection. #3 Boheme de Lavi takes a drop in class after a poor performance. Would expect that to be a rare bad run as the previous Beyer figures put her in the mix here.

#5 Bustin Out 2/1
#7 Rowd E Allie 5/2
#3 Boheme de Lavi 3/1

Race 7: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 & 1/16 Miles, (Turf)
#5 Foxhall Drive tries hard to have me go against with past performances. However, has faced better more often than not, has Paco on board with the connections of Breen as the trainer. May easily be a runaway finally placed in a good and the right spot winner. #2 Azure Dragon needs a hot pace to be any type of factor. In the races that he was poor at Tampa Bay, he got caught in a crowd of horses stalking a slow pace. The pace should be fairly hot, and the solid late kick that he possesses could finally make a difference. #1 Ringold will need exactly what Azure Dragon needs so there may be a stalking fight as like I said it should be a hot pace. Does have better figures than Azure Dragon as a closer, but needs to fight the rail along the way. You will know after about Race 2 or 3 at Monmouth Park if it is playing fast or dead, which could change this selection.

#5 Foxhall Drive 5/2
#2 Azure Drago 6/1
#1 Ringold 3/1

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile & 70 Yards, (Dirt)Best Bet – #10 Gombey Dancer is going after 3rd straight victory and was 3 for 3 at Monmouth last summer. Strongest figures of career have also come at Monmouth Park, so based on past 3 performances and previous Monmouth performances will be very tough to beat. Will need to be chased down at this is a wire to wire loving horse with Paco Lopez on board to turn him loose when ready and fight down the closers. #2 Port Aggregate will be tough to lay off of at the betting window if you can get anything near 5/1. While I do love the barn numbers with dirt routers and also horses moving turf to dirt, if you watch some of this horses race replays, could he get any better and cleaner trips over and over again. I need to see this horse fight a beast one time and not a highway type race as the field opens up for him like a Cop. #9 Pax in Terra is the main closing threat to Gombey Dancer but will need a MUCH better Beyer figure (such as his recent training) to compete with Gombey Dancer and Port Aggregate.

#10 Gombey Dancer 2/1
#2 Port Aggregate 5/1
#9 Pax in Terra 4/1

Race 9: Allowance, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#7 Mello Groove Centeno in a dirt sprint compared to the quality of the field just out weighs what else is available IMO. If he doesn’t win the other sprint, he wins this one, 50% for the day is not so bad. #1 Unruly Heir will look to have a clean break to clear the field sooner than later. If he doesn’t get the ability to move off the rail quickly to use the speed up front, will be a non-factor in the race. I don’t see another horse that will out run him there though, so he gets caught by my winner. #8 Bat Cave made me wrong when I had him and wrong when I didn’t have him. Looks like he could end up being the main stalking speed off the race, Paco on board blows the price down to un-betable for how this horse performs on a every race basis for my taste.

#7 Mello Groove 3/1
#1 Unruly Heir 4/1
#8 Bat Cave 7/2

Race 10: Decathlon S., 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#4 A.P Indian put forward best effort of career to win this race last year. Will be making first start off lengthy layoff but that has not been a problem in the past as he was a winner of the last two. Placed in a very good spot with sprint man Centeno on board (Could be 3-3 at this point, he will win 1 of the 3, Guaranteed!). Will need to face extensive pressure from the start to give any closer a shot at pulling him in, don’t see any horse doing so. #7 Delta Bluesman needs to be paid some respect after a very big effort last time out in a hand ride victory. However, got the perfect trip and pace for his style of racing, don’t see that here but can’t throw him out either. #2 Seeking the Sherif simply Paco/Jacobson in a big time spot are always tough to handle. Key in the Tri/Super’s, you know they will be ITM in the end of it all.

#4 A.P Indian 5/2
#7 Delta Bluesman 3/1
#2 Seeking the Sherif 2/1

Race 11: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 & 1/16 Miles, (Turf)
#7 Osceola Pond drops in for a tag for the first time in career for a barn that excels in that spot with turf horses and route runners. Has had very good works even dating back to March, I have to expect this one is just raring to Rock and Roll. #5 Lookin Up faced much better on the Cement a.k.a Gulfstream Turf course and now moves back to a softer track where one would think the times hold even while shedding a bit of the cement fractions. Have been waiting for Nicky to show up on the Monmouth card, expect a big year from him this year along with Rispoli and Trevor, and he is on this one. #8 My Bucky’s Boy adds blinkers after the need was clearly seen last race. Trainer has a ridiculous 30% winning percentage with the equipment change.

#7 Osceola Pond 5/2
#5 Lookin Up 6/1
#8 Bucky’s Boy 7/2

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE. PICKS & ANALYSIS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE MERELY OPINIONS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. PICKS DO NOT GUARANTEE ANY SUCCESSFUL OUTCOMES WHATSOEVER. PICKS ARE PROVIDED TO GUIDE YOUR STRATEGY TO PLAYING THE RACES. MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE IN NO WAY INTENDED TO ENCOURAGE GAMBLING. WHERE LEGAL, ALL WAGERS SHOULD BE MADE RESPONSIBLY AND ARE DONE SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.

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