Monmouth Park, Saturday, May 28th, 2016

Meet Record: 22 (13-1-2) 59% Winners, 72% ITM – Best Bet 6 (6-0-0) 100% Winners, 100% ITM
Money Invested: $1,368 – Money Returned:$4,145.10

Last Week: 7 Top Pick Winners ($66.00), 4 Best Bet Winners ($34.60), 4 Exacta’s ($77.20), 1 Trifecta ($20.40), 4 Cold Double ($42.80), 1 Got Money to Dance Pick 5 ($127.80), 1 Tight Bankroll Pick 5 ($127.80) 2 Got Money to Dance Pick 4 ($272.55), 2 Tight Bankroll Pick 4 ($272.55)

Happy Memorial Day Weekend! We continued the good start in my promise of over 10K profit and 40% winners during the entire meet last week with 7 Top Pick Winners. Was ecstatic that the rain held off as I mentioned my best bets were late in the card and we hit 6 straight going away. Was really hoping that this card would be juiced up on Memorial day weekend and that it would start halting the chalk, but the fields are extremely short. Cannot deny that the chalk is getting extremely frustrating and nearly unplayable for any of us Monmouth veterans and even the young guns I converse with. Something needs to change. Anywho, Let’s keep this crazy train on the rails. Bringing my Dad on Saturday, need to make him some money now to! As Always, keep an eye on Pick 4/5 and Top Pick winner changes in the morning on Twitter after scratches. Lastly, If you have the money, go away from my Paco single in the last race, I will be. As stated last week and topped off with 4 odds on favorite losers back to back Saturday’s and Sunday’s, He NEVER wins the last race of day. Get Hot Stay Hot.

Early Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $54
Race 1: 1,3,4
Race 2: 2,6
Race 3: 1,2
Race 4: 1,5,8
Race 5: 1,3,5

Early Pick 5 (If You’re Crazy Ticket) – $480
Race 1: 1,3,4,6
Race 2: 2,5,6
Race 3: 1,2,3,5
Race 4: 1,3,5,8
Race 5: 1,3,4,5,6

Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $27
Race 3: 1,2
Race 4: 1,5,8
Race 5: 1,3,5
Race 6: 1,2,5

Early Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $120
Race 3: 1,2,3,5
Race 4: 1,3,5,8
Race 5: 1,3,4,5,6
Race 6: 1,2,5

Late Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $12
Race 6: 1,2,5
Race 7: 3,4
Race 8: 4,6
Race 9: 6,9
Race 10: 4

Late Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $108
Race 6: 1,2,5
Race 7: 1,3,4
Race 8: 3,4,6
Race 9: 1,3,6,9
Race 10: 3,4

Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $4
Race 7: 3,4
Race 8: 4,6
Race 9: 6,9
Race 10: 4

Late Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $36
Race 7: 1,3,4
Race 8: 3,4,6
Race 9: 1,3,6,9
Race 10: 3,4

Race 1: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Dirt)
Brutal opener as I cannot talk you off of any single one of these. My literal arm hair lean goes to #3 Ruthless T who fell out of the gate last time out and then “lost the rider”. Is dangerous only when on the front end and would be successful with a clean trip up front. #4 Urban Sombrero takes a big class drop but why after the recent figure? Maybe I’m looking too much into it, if so, this is your winner going away. Must add to Pick 4/5. #1 U.S Point did not fare well in debut, but has some very good works coming in which would indicate she may be better than what we have seen. Enters with Lasix for the second time and Wilson is a very nice 22%-win rate at this distance and surface.

#3 Ruthless T 2/1
#4 Urban Sombrero 3/1
#1 U.S Point 8/1

Race 2: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Turf)
Best Bet – #2 Money Illusion has lost as the favorite in last two attempts which does give me some concern here. However, was game in last race and has faced much better then these. Appears to be lone speed with top speed figures in race while in a field of no speed. #6 FiveKindsofCrazy expecting a better race from this one as the last looked like a bounce after 2 very good speed figure races. Ferrer is on board who is cleaning up over the last 2 weeks. #5 Over The Limit has the combination of Gonzales and Navarro. What Navarro has done at the meet thus far is quite ridiculous and what they have done together is very good also. Don’t count out #4 Trapon at 15/1. Expected better last weekend when added to both my tickets and was really not impressed, may just need another one here, will have my eyes and will be in a few small tickets if the ML stays anything over 10/1.

Best Bet – #2 Money Illusion 2/1
#6 FiveKindsOfCrazy 6/1
#5 Over The Limit 7/2
#4 Trapon 15/1

Race 3: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile & 70 Yards, (Dirt)#2 Firsthand Report comes back for Pletcher with a Beyer figure much the best even while tiring and blowing a pretty secure lead. Expect that figure or better with a close out in this one. #1 Red River Heidi will be interesting to see how this horse runs. May try and dual Firsthand Report on the front or let the two to the immediate right do the work and stalk. Don’t think the dual or stalk is won, but it wouldn’t be crazy to see Firsthand Report closed again by another horse with stalking speed if given the right trip. #3 Bold Quality may need a few more races under the belt to compete with these. However, will be the 3rd horse up front with the decision of running away or stalking. Would say this one is 3rd best in the race setup I expect.

#2 Firsthand Report 9/5
#1 Red River Heidi 7/2
#3 Bold Quality 2/1

Race 4: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Turf)
#8 Shoo Daddy looks to be the main speed of a race that will be lacking any type of pace. If the trip across is clean, will greatly benefit from the shorter distance and could run away with it. #5 Spanish Armada has to be threat returning to the turf. However, I’ve mentioned this to people several times in the past. Going from a cement Turf at Gulfstream to a forgiving Turf at Monmouth takes an adjustment. May need another 1 and you have to shave some time off the Gulfstream figures. #1 Dothraki Warrior hates winning, but loves to be in the money. Expect him to be too far back as always to be a factor but clean the show late.

#8 Shoo Daddy 9/2
#5 Spanish Armada 3/1
#1 Dothraki Warrior 5/2

Race 5: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Dirt)
Have to roll right back to #5 One For Don for my second straight top selection on him this meet. Secured a $77 double for my followers and I last time out and his last efforts, including Beyer figures are much the best. Will go first off the claim for successful Monmouth barn and makes an extremely fast turnaround for a sprinter which I always like. #1/1A Entry both have top end speed and it would seem will stay in and work together to set up a going away trip with MyBrotherJohnnyA while Conquest Outlaw will stalk that pace if exhaustion comes before the wire. #3 Just Ace will also enter in here for Sacco, essentially making this a split entry. I think my winner is better and faster, However, always found it shady when you have 6 multiple entries in one race, if they all stay, we don’t know the plan. Tread lightly.

#5 One For Don 5/2
#1/1A 6/1
#3 Just Ace 2/1

Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Turf)
Finding a hard time going against #1 Chamois. Class is well above these and takes a cut in distance after posting a speed figure well and above these also. Not much of a fan of Jockey or Trainer on short money despite their numbers together so this will be merely in my Pick 4/5 and will probably spread my winning bet elsewhere. #5 Nuciefra should get a very hot pace to sit behind. Needs to make the commitment to a stalking trip instead of continuing to gas on the front end and falter late. Has best closing speed, needs to be used correctly. #2 Cement Clement cuts back in distance after weakening on the front end at 9 furlongs so this should easily work in his favor. However, to many other horses love it hot up front so he will be contested all the way around and caught late if he does not get away early.

#1 Chamois 2/1
#5 Nuciefra 9/2
#2 Cement Clement 5/2

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile & 70 Yards, (Dirt)
#3 Conviction posted speed figure last time out much better than this and have posted several better along the way. Pletcher enters him into quite the ideal spot here as he improved last time out going longer vs. better. Hardest competition in race will come from his stablemate #4 Fetisov who failed on the turf in debut and now switches to dirt for Pletcher who bangs the win rate in second time starter surface switches better than anyone in the game. #1 Buon Gusto will likely use the inside post position to jump right out to the front as the early speed. Has had some troubled trips out of the gate costing him a few times, need to see that cleaned up before I can put my money on.

#3 Conviction 9/5
#4 Fetisov 2/1
#1 Buon Gusto 4/1

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & UP, 1 Mile, (Turf)
Best Bet – #4 Al Khazaaliya will start a $100 Best Bet single,single,single Pick 3 for me and will be really tough to beat in the form he is in right now. Would be coming into this one looking for 3rd straight victory if it wasn’t for a photo finish loss last time out. Beyer’s are better than the rest, training tabs are better than the rest, last bullet work is better than the rest and best tactical horse in the race. Will be in prime stalking position ready to roll on the turn. #6 Sea Coast has yet to win in the U.S.A despite being game in all 3. Good Beyer figures and as stated earlier, the connections I can’t stand are very successful. Still will never pay for it at even money. #3 Resilient One is my pick your poison selection. A few could go in this slot, if playing the TRI select ALL. Would venture to say Decarlo will not be the jockey tomorrow and a rider upgrade could help. Not winning.

Best Bet – #4 Al Khazaaliya 5/2
#6 Sea Coast 3/1
#3 Resilient One 6/1

Race 9: John J. Reilly H., 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Best Bet – #6 Green Gratto is going to be extremely tough to catch. The book will tell you 3 straight losses, but look at the times and pace in those, everything extremely hot up top. This one lacks pace and will be a huge advantage. Faces easier competition in state breds and has a +100 speed figure to boot vs. this field. Would not be surprised if he clears and wires the field in a hand ride. #9 Visionary Ruler makes first start of the claim for sizzling hot Navarro. Not only is he smoking this meet, he has also always been very successful with horses off the claim. #3 Saucy Don has struggled recently in sprints but I see a better effort to come with rising jockey Nicky to grab his first ITM piece in some time.

Best Bet – #6 Green Gratto 3/1
#9 Visionary Ruler 6/1
#3 Saucy Don 4/1

Race 10: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Best Bet – #4 Pico is an absolute stand out on the card and in the finale. I stated last week and earlier PACO NEVER EVER WINS IN THE FINALE. Juice your tickets on one without him and single him on another ticket, but let me tell you something, If he doesn’t win this one, that may be my best stat in my arsenal because this should not be close. As hard as I try like the last two weeks finding the winner over him, there is NOTHING compelling behind him at all, I mean nothing. I mean seriously, look at the crop behind this horse? I’m sorry, I just can’t do it. Will tweet on the juiced ticket adds tomorrow afternoon.

Best Bet – #4 Pico 6/5

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE. PICKS & ANALYSIS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE MERELY OPINIONS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. PICKS DO NOT GUARANTEE ANY SUCCESSFUL OUTCOMES WHATSOEVER. PICKS ARE PROVIDED TO GUIDE YOUR STRATEGY TO PLAYING THE RACES. MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE IN NO WAY INTENDED TO ENCOURAGE GAMBLING. WHERE LEGAL, ALL WAGERS SHOULD BE MADE RESPONSIBLY AND ARE DONE SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Monmouth Park, Saturday, May 21st, 2016

Meet Record: 11 (6-1-1) 54% Winners, 72% ITM – Best Bet 2 (2-0-0) 100% Winners, 100% ITM

Money Invested: $646 – Money Returned: $3,064.20

Last Week: 6 Top Pick Winners ($77.50), 3 Cold Exacta ($92.80), 2 Cold Double ($34.60), 1 Got Money to Dance Pick 5 ($1,326.90), 1 Got Money to Dance Pick 4 ($766.20), 1 Tight Bankroll Pick 4 ($766.20)

We got off to a good start in my promise of over 10K profit and 40% winners during the entire meet. Will hope to continue that this week; however I really don’t like the circumstances to do so. NJ has contradicting weather reports, some have mid day downpour, and some say it will hold till after race card while others say no rain at all. I would definitely make many adjustments on the fly, but will probably not have the ability to do so on here. If it stays fast and firm play away, if not start to tread lightly. Additionally, the beginning of the card till Race 5 is very tough. Would really be unfortunate if my big plays and singles later on are altered by the rain. Happy Sloppy Preakness Day. Cherry Wine? Get Hot Stay Hot.

DELETE TICKETS WITH SURFACE CHANGES, MY TICKETS ARE BASED ON FAST AND FIRM!

Early Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $27
Race 1: 8,9
Race 2: 1,2,3
Race 3: 2,3,7
Race 4: 3,6,8
Race 5: 1

Early Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $200
Race 1: 1,6,8,9,10
Race 2: 1,2,3,5
Race 3: 1,2,3,4,7
Race 4: 1,3,6,8
Race 5: 1 (If you have a better dance than I do, add the 3)

Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $9
Race 3: 2,3,7
Race 4: 3,6,8
Race 5: 1
Race 6: 4

Early Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $60
Race 3: 1,2,3,4,7
Race 4: 1,3,6,8
Race 5: 1,3
Race 6: 2,3,4

Late Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $4
Race 7: 4,8
Race 8: 3
Race 9: 1,7
Race 10: 2
Race 11: 1,4

Late Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $216
Race 7: 2,4,8
Race 8: 1,3,5
Race 9: 1,4,7,9
Race 10: 1,2,3,4
Race 11: 1,4,9

Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $2
Race 8: 3
Race 9: 1,7
Race 10: 2
Race 11: 1,4

Late Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $72
Race 8: 1,3,5
Race 9: 1,4,7,9
Race 10: 1,2,3,4
Race 11: 1,4,9

Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Turf)
In a match of two elite turf jockey’s at their own perspective homes, #8 Super Stan opens the card on the turf with the best (regardless if I hate him or not) turf jockey at Monmouth Park, Joey Bravo. Has posted very good figures and is quicker than this bunch. With that being said Joey loves to sit far back on the turf races and that horse falters there. Needs to stay close and Plesa Jr. needs to let Joey know that in the morning. #9 Stockyard gets Antonio Gallardo on board from Tampa Bay Downs. Antonio is considered by some to be a top 10 jockey in the world and he has cleaned up on the Tampa Bay turf for some time. I’ve always found the Tampa Turf to be slightly quicker, so a softer surface and learning curve here are my negatives. #12 Cavity is my next pick if the rain holds as he will AE in for the MTO horse. Beyer figures are second to none in this one but the money will be way too short for me for a horse that LOVES to run 2nd.

#8 Super Stan 7/2
#9 Stockyard 5/2
#12 Cavity 7/2

Race 2: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Hate to be that guy but really have two top picks here. #2 Rockette Jet and #1 Scotland Boy are both the pace setters and may get in a duel up front right away. If they do Scotland Boy will win in a run away, if Rockette Jet slightly stalks, she is the winner. She can hang as long as she doesn’t exhaust herself on the front end. I think this one will be prime off the layoff, but it’s the ride that determines the outcome.  #1 Scotland Boy is coming off best figure of her career and is prime for a bounce here if stalked/challenged. #3 Don’s Escapade broke her maiden here last time out off essentially the exact same length of layoff, will look to pick of the pieces late from what’s left on top.

#2 Rockette Jet 12/1
#1 Scotland Boy 1/1
#3 Don’s Escapade 3/1

Race 3: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#2 Gemonade ran gamely on only start on the main track. Tried to run with a hot pace in that one and ended up faltering late to future winners. Learning from past vs. weaker should stalk here and be in prime position late to take over before the wire with some of the top speed figures in entire race. #3 Malala comes off the layoff with some very good works leading up to this one. Field is weaker than she is used to but is a closer in a need of a hot pace and I’m not sure she gets it. Hoping my winner chooses to stalk with her and not set, if my winner sets, Malala is your winner. #7 Beautiful Success as stated last week, can never ever count Lopez/Sacco at Monmouth out of the money on the main track. Would be silly not to include in some fashion.

#2 Gemonade 12/1
#3 Malala 7/2
#7 Beautiful Success 2/1

Race 4: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 1/16 Miles, (Turf)
#8 Mini Cosmo looks to be the pace and speed while I would rather see this one on the dirt as an elite contender, Bravo would rather see this one on the turf for an elite contender to him. Field seems super weak to me and absolutely up in the air. Horse has not done anything on the Turf to have me say no thank you and I can’t count out Bravo who loves taking the midday crowd on his back. #3 Inside the Pipe has a beautiful post draw and great tactical speed for his style of racing. Both could lead to an ideal trip to make a big move on the turn. Beyer figures would also agree with me. My concern is that when you draw this perfect thing up, it never goes perfect, if one thing goes wrong such as position, break or the move, so does first place for this one. Have to include #6 Film Making as a mere what this horse could be but can you honestly put your money on what will be a 1/1 or 4/5 shot with these past performances? I can’t.

#8 Mini Cosmo 7/2
#3 Inside the Pipe 5/1
#6 Film Making 5/2

Race 5: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Dirt)
Best Bet – #1 Social Stranger has not only some of the best Beyer figures in the field but also on the day. Can’t go wrong with Navarro at Monmouth. Has early speed, lone speed and draws the inside post to use it in a race that has no speed, pace or flow. Should roll. #3 Tarpon should benefit given from no pace scenario. Did ok going long and will try again. Has been successful in career with best Beyer figures when coming off a layoff. Expect a repeat here but still not enough. Pick your poison for 3rd. I will go with #2 Full Pads who given the no pace scenario, I could see deciding to run out early and get away. It won’t be enough however but could only get caught by 2 and hold on to the show. Will not be in my Pick 4 or 5.

#1 Social Stranger 9/5 – Best Bet
#3 Tarpon 10/1
#2 Full Pads 6/1

Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Best Bet – #4 Awesome Slew battled in the Grade 2 Stanford which is a much better field than the rest. Has to be a big threat in an allowance optional sprint. I would also argue that the layoff was deserved. Is very versatile, can be placed where needed, will be tough. IMO the only threat to my winner, #3 Town Policy will break the gate hard and fast and try to go wire to wire and hold off my winning beast behind him. If rode correctly, with the winner chasing instead of sitting, could steal this one. Must add in Pick 4 if you can go deep in case he holds on. #2 Midnight Drifter Bravo/Servis ROI and ITM% at Monmouth together is a must add to the money pools.

#4 Awesome Slew 2/1 – Best Bet
#3 Town Policy 5/2
#2 Midnight Drifter 7/2

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 3YO & Up, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Dirt)
#8 More Trix has quite the pedigree with Paco Lopez on board. Dam has won five races for roughly 240k while the sire was a multiple graded stakes winning sprinter. Comes into this one with a few bullets and also decent works, with a field that has 1 threat. #4 Fairbanks E Jet is that sole threat. Drastically lacks the speed to compete with More Tix, but that tells you all you need to know about what’s behind as I have this one second. Will need something extremely hot up front for a late exhausting close. #2 Sue’s Stones has a good Beyer figure coming into this one but literally got it hand wrapped with a bow. Either bounces, doesn’t get the Santa Clause trip or runs that number and it’s still not enough for the top 2. Added merely to the Pick 5 in case More Trix is all pedigree hype and the race completely breaks down. Definitely removable if you are trying to slim.

#8 More Trix 3/1
#4 Fairbanks E Jet 9/2
#2 Sue’s Stones 7/2

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Best Bet – #3 Defer Heaven will be quick out of the gate for successful Monmouth trainer Navarro. Is the lone speed of the race in a sprint none to less which should be way too much for these. Lost his 5th straight win streak last time out in a race setup that was completely vs. his style. If he runs to any of his Beyer figures he will be furlongs away. #1 El Charro I like much better than his entry mate. If the winner does not get away early this will be the threat in a closing fashion, however think this distance may be too short and if the winner is too far away you know Bravo is packing it in early. #5 Chipit can’t leave out Paco/Pletcher combination on Paco’s home turf with new competition joining the circuit.

#3 Defer Heaven 2/1 – Best Bet
#1/1A Entry 9/2
#5 Chipit 5/2

Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 1/16 Miles, (Turf)
#7 Riviere Du Loup will hope it is still on the turf at this point as both the Beyer figures and the connections put the rest of these to shame and far behind. #1 Street Lord is more appealing to me then his coupled entry. Unlike my winner, would rather have the dirt surface but has not been bad on turf when being able to get away out front and clear. Fractions are much quicker than when others are around. #9 Super Spender will be the one looking to clean up the pieces behind my winner and 2nd selection. Will look to reel what is hot up front late, but think this is as far as that gets.

#7 Riviere Du Loup 3/1
#1/1A Entry 7/2
#9 Super Spender 8/1

Race 10: Majestic Light S. 3YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Dirt)
Best Bet – #2 Bradester reminds me of some very great days at Monmouth last summer. Ran big ones over and over again which I believe included the Monmouth Cup and Salvator Mile. Also remembering him losing one when he stumbled out of the gate and was forced to stalk instead of set which is not his specialty. Would need to be put away very early on, just don’t see it at all. #4 Albano will probably try to match Bradester the entire way and make the first or last move to beat him. He may run with him but Bradester is to game to be beat at his own race. #3 Adirondack King continues to improve Beyer figures race after race. Another Beyer improvement and this one would actually beat these so I had to add him to the money to dance tickets. However, also in a prime spot for a bounce.

#2 Bradester 7/5 – Best Bet
#4 Albano 8/1
#3 Adirondack King 4/1

Race 11: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#4 One for Don can’t say enough about how much this horse has won for me at Monmouth. Yes the W% stinks, he blows short price a lot and rarely hits the big price, but how about that W% at Monmouth 66% with Gallardo and Ness, Sign me up for it again. #1 Libery St. Outlaw I like more than coupled entry. Returns from first start off a layoff. I know very little about the trainer but the statistics are very good in a short sample size at both Monmouth, first start off layoffs and W% in those spots. Major Threat. #9 Bama Bound Paco Lopez with Jason Servis at Monmouth with both the best tactical speed and versatility in the race. I know this is crazy but I’ve been going for 18+ years. I don’t know the stat, but I would bet a hefty amount of my saving Paco wins at less than 5% on the last race of a card. Over and Over again he’s a heavy favorite and he never ever cashes. I know that has nothing to do with horse, surface, trainer etc. I’m just saying I know it’s not good at all and I won’t be paying for the short price to see it again here.

#4 One for Don 3/1
#1 Liberty St. Outlaw 6/1
#9 Bama Bound 5/2

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE. PICKS & ANALYSIS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE MERELY OPINIONS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. PICKS DO NOT GUARANTEE ANY SUCCESSFUL OUTCOMES WHATSOEVER. PICKS ARE PROVIDED TO GUIDE YOUR STRATEGY TO PLAYING THE RACES. MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE IN NO WAY INTENDED TO ENCOURAGE GAMBLING. WHERE LEGAL, ALL WAGERS SHOULD BE MADE RESPONSIBLY AND ARE DONE SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Monmouth Park, Saturday, May 14th, 2016

Very excited for the Monmouth Meet to begin. This will be my 18th straight opening day since my dad introduced me to this beautiful place, and you can find me there nearly every single Saturday and Sunday of the entire meet. I have been very successful at Monmouth and I hope to provide you with the same success over the meet writing for Dano. I will keep a results tab at the top for inquires also. If you ever want to meet up or have questions, please feel free to reach out on twitter @ryne_olsen and I will respond with my location or answer. This year will be slightly different for me also as I now also have some % ownership in some of these runners, so looking forward to that. I have been colder than a 711 Pina Colada Slurpee over the last 2 months, so I hope to get it going here early and often and not let that drag out. Get Hot Stay Hot.

Early Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket): $6
Race 1: 7
Race 2: 1,6,8
Race 3: 6
Race 4: 3,5
Race 5: 2,3

Early Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket): $240
Race 1: 2,7
Race 2: 1,2,6,8
Race 3: 3,6,7
Race 4: 1,3,5,6
Race 5: 2,3,4,6,8

Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket): $2
Race 3: 6
Race 4: 3,5
Race 5: 2,3
Race 6: 5

Early Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket): $120
Race 3: 3,6,7
Race 4: 1,3,5,6
Race 5: 2,3,4,6,8
Race 6: 2,3,5,7

Late Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket): $6
Race 7: 5
Race 8: 2,10
Race 9: 7
Race 10: 2,4,7
Race 11: 5,7

Late Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket): $144
Race 7: 1,2,4,5
Race 8: 2,10
Rae 9: 1,2,7,8
Race 10: 2,4,7
Race 11: 5,7,8

Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket): $6
Race 8: 2,10
Race 9: 7
Race 10: 2,4,7
Race 11: 5,7

Late Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket): $36
Race 8: 2,10
Race 9: 1,2,7,8
Race 10: 2,4,7
Race 11: 5,7,8

Race 1: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Best Bet – #7 Brother Bobo couldn’t find an argument to beat the best jockey on board over the last several years to open up the meet. Has gotten royally screwed by Gulfstream over the last 5 months, making Paco ecstatic to be back home. As for the horse, has the best speed and very versatile in terms of position. Should stalk the pace. Kelly Breen has had great success early on at Monmouth also. #2 Mongolian Chrome will be a tough test for Brother Bobo as they are essentially the same horse. Drops down in price off the claim and also very versatile in position. Winner could very well end up being the one with best stalking spot. Slight concern on a bounce, best figures out of nowhere, repeat would win but I have to see it twice to pay. #5 Blast Away struggled going a mile in tiring fashion so a drop to sprint could be exactly what this horse needs. The jockey, trainer, barn numbers are impossible for me to back in the win position, Bad.

#7 Brother Bobo 5/2 – Best Bet
#2 Mongolian Chrome 2/1
#5 Blast Away 7/2

Race 2: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile & 70 Yards, (Dirt)
Going to take a shot vs. one of my own here with #6 Untamed a veteran horse, who has a ton of experience at Monmouth park and the best races have come on that surface. J.J is on board who excels with the vets and is having a sneaky good year winning at a 22% clip. If you eliminate the races outside of Monmouth park the numbers become much different, especially ITM% which as I mentioned is really my main spot for this horse. One of my own and the likely winner #8 SourcesandMethods is the horse to beat but will be way to small of a price for me. Looks to be taking a drop in class but is actually rising. Could be the lone speed horse that may choose to set the pace and wire the field instead of stalk what is being set which has hurt him in the past. #1 Jonesy Boy take a big drop in class even while posting best Beyer figure last time out. Also has best Beyer figures among these but why the long layoff and the massive drop after success? Must add in the Pick 5 if this is a what looks too good to be true is not, but this will be my first large exchange wager of the day.

#6 Untamed 6/1
#8 SourcesandMethods 5/2
#1 Jonesy Boy 9/5

Race 3: Claiming, 3YO & UP, 1 1/16 Miles, (Turf)
#6 Royal Moment ran best race of career last time out, 1st time off the claim. Followed that up with a bullet work leading me to believe he is improving not taking a step backward in this one. May not even need top Beyer figure that he posted last time out as the tactical speed will allow Paco to pick whatever he wants. #3 Talent Show returns from a long layoff in a very ideal spot. Race lacks any type of pace setter outside of this one and Jose Ferrer could try and really use that to his advantage to get to far away to catch. I think Royal Moment gets him, but not sure any others will close that pace. #7 Broughton Kitten makes first start of the 2016 campaign and first since November. Though the book is very un-impressive and I agree, outside of the 2 starts at Golden Gate and the 1 start at Indiana Grand, this horse has faced an entire field better than him, and entire field better than all in this race outside of Royal Moment in every single other race. May catch some by surprise here ITM vs. horses of his own talent and not well behind it. However, the 9/2 morning line seems Brad Thomas is having the same thoughts as me.

#6 Royal Moment 2/1
#3 Talent Show 7/2
#7 Broughton Kitten 9/2

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#5 Ignorant Heist gets my tough race lean here. Has had the best works and several bullets leading up to this one. The dam was a two time graded stakes dirt sprint winner (Blind Devotion). Sounds like a recipe of success to me. #3 Leofric solid sire connections make this a Ryne Olsen statistical play. The average win with sire firsters are at about 10% overall, these are a solid 4% over that mark. Does not sound like a lot but in the long run surely is. #6 Scrap Iron Phil is the best of the one’s that already have a race/races under their belt. Most recent figure is the top Beyer number among these. If you lean to previous starters this is your winner, if you lean to firsters with bullets, then my pick is. Pick your poison.

#5 Ignorant Heist 5/1
#3 Leofric 9/5
#6 Scrap Iron Phil 2/1

Race 5: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 5 ½ Furlongs, (Dirt)
#3 Lil Red Caboose has Daniel Centeno on board who is an absolute beast in sprint races. If you haven’t followed him during the winter check the guy’s stats out at Tampa Bay Downs. Some, consider Antonio Gallardo a top 10 Jockey in the world. Centeno overtook him in not one but the last two meets (4 months x2) in W% in sprint races and on the dirt and just missed the main track and turf by 2 winners. His ROI last time I checked in these races was also over $8 and change! He’s not rolling $2.20 winners. Trainer knows how to spot them at Monmouth, always has and I have to back him here vs. a weak field of sprinters IMO. I think the horse needs about half as much of what the others need with him on board to do the rest in his style of racing. #2 Don’s Marsh comes off a 9-month layoff at a track where he has only finished out of the money 3 times ever (2 of which were gate stumbles). Put the math together, 4 divided by 5, horse is ITM 80% of the time at Monmouth over the last two years. How could I expect any different based on what’s in the field? #4 Guinness Spice is a straight up barn statistic play with maiden claimers in first starts. 32% ITM with a $5.00 ROI. 10/1 sign me up for a Superfecta key. I do think this race is wide open, I also have power points on Pico and LWI Love Me Do to win to add in the Super.

#3 Lil Red Caboose 4/1
#2 Don’s Marsh 2/1
#4 Guinness Spice 10/1

Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#5 Bustin Out was extremely good and sharp last summer here winning me a ton of money in single opportunities. I know the layoff has been lengthy, but if you are a statistical player, that Beyer figure last time out tops the field. Can be versatile and set a race with no pace or sit off something hot up front. #7 Rowd E Allie is also very tactical and versatile. If Bustin Out is not yet live after this lengthy layoff, will be tough to beat as she is already not far off from being the top selection. #3 Boheme de Lavi takes a drop in class after a poor performance. Would expect that to be a rare bad run as the previous Beyer figures put her in the mix here.

#5 Bustin Out 2/1
#7 Rowd E Allie 5/2
#3 Boheme de Lavi 3/1

Race 7: Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 & 1/16 Miles, (Turf)
#5 Foxhall Drive tries hard to have me go against with past performances. However, has faced better more often than not, has Paco on board with the connections of Breen as the trainer. May easily be a runaway finally placed in a good and the right spot winner. #2 Azure Dragon needs a hot pace to be any type of factor. In the races that he was poor at Tampa Bay, he got caught in a crowd of horses stalking a slow pace. The pace should be fairly hot, and the solid late kick that he possesses could finally make a difference. #1 Ringold will need exactly what Azure Dragon needs so there may be a stalking fight as like I said it should be a hot pace. Does have better figures than Azure Dragon as a closer, but needs to fight the rail along the way. You will know after about Race 2 or 3 at Monmouth Park if it is playing fast or dead, which could change this selection.

#5 Foxhall Drive 5/2
#2 Azure Drago 6/1
#1 Ringold 3/1

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 Mile & 70 Yards, (Dirt)Best Bet – #10 Gombey Dancer is going after 3rd straight victory and was 3 for 3 at Monmouth last summer. Strongest figures of career have also come at Monmouth Park, so based on past 3 performances and previous Monmouth performances will be very tough to beat. Will need to be chased down at this is a wire to wire loving horse with Paco Lopez on board to turn him loose when ready and fight down the closers. #2 Port Aggregate will be tough to lay off of at the betting window if you can get anything near 5/1. While I do love the barn numbers with dirt routers and also horses moving turf to dirt, if you watch some of this horses race replays, could he get any better and cleaner trips over and over again. I need to see this horse fight a beast one time and not a highway type race as the field opens up for him like a Cop. #9 Pax in Terra is the main closing threat to Gombey Dancer but will need a MUCH better Beyer figure (such as his recent training) to compete with Gombey Dancer and Port Aggregate.

#10 Gombey Dancer 2/1
#2 Port Aggregate 5/1
#9 Pax in Terra 4/1

Race 9: Allowance, 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#7 Mello Groove Centeno in a dirt sprint compared to the quality of the field just out weighs what else is available IMO. If he doesn’t win the other sprint, he wins this one, 50% for the day is not so bad. #1 Unruly Heir will look to have a clean break to clear the field sooner than later. If he doesn’t get the ability to move off the rail quickly to use the speed up front, will be a non-factor in the race. I don’t see another horse that will out run him there though, so he gets caught by my winner. #8 Bat Cave made me wrong when I had him and wrong when I didn’t have him. Looks like he could end up being the main stalking speed off the race, Paco on board blows the price down to un-betable for how this horse performs on a every race basis for my taste.

#7 Mello Groove 3/1
#1 Unruly Heir 4/1
#8 Bat Cave 7/2

Race 10: Decathlon S., 3YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#4 A.P Indian put forward best effort of career to win this race last year. Will be making first start off lengthy layoff but that has not been a problem in the past as he was a winner of the last two. Placed in a very good spot with sprint man Centeno on board (Could be 3-3 at this point, he will win 1 of the 3, Guaranteed!). Will need to face extensive pressure from the start to give any closer a shot at pulling him in, don’t see any horse doing so. #7 Delta Bluesman needs to be paid some respect after a very big effort last time out in a hand ride victory. However, got the perfect trip and pace for his style of racing, don’t see that here but can’t throw him out either. #2 Seeking the Sherif simply Paco/Jacobson in a big time spot are always tough to handle. Key in the Tri/Super’s, you know they will be ITM in the end of it all.

#4 A.P Indian 5/2
#7 Delta Bluesman 3/1
#2 Seeking the Sherif 2/1

Race 11: Maiden Claiming, 3YO & Up, 1 & 1/16 Miles, (Turf)
#7 Osceola Pond drops in for a tag for the first time in career for a barn that excels in that spot with turf horses and route runners. Has had very good works even dating back to March, I have to expect this one is just raring to Rock and Roll. #5 Lookin Up faced much better on the Cement a.k.a Gulfstream Turf course and now moves back to a softer track where one would think the times hold even while shedding a bit of the cement fractions. Have been waiting for Nicky to show up on the Monmouth card, expect a big year from him this year along with Rispoli and Trevor, and he is on this one. #8 My Bucky’s Boy adds blinkers after the need was clearly seen last race. Trainer has a ridiculous 30% winning percentage with the equipment change.

#7 Osceola Pond 5/2
#5 Lookin Up 6/1
#8 Bucky’s Boy 7/2

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