Aqueduct, Saturday, April 23rd, 2016

2/20/16: 4 Top Pick Winners ($36.40), 4 Cold Exactas ($92.00), 1 Cold Tri ($212.50), 1 Cold Double ($39.00) 1 Pick 4 ($324.00), Best Bet ($7.90)

2/27/16: 1 Top Pick Winner ($7.50), Best Bet ($7.50) – (Multiple scratches I never got to address)

3/5/16: 3 Top Pick Winners ($38.30), 3 Cold Exactas ($66.80), 3 Cold Tri ($99.20), 1 Cold Double ($14.00), 1 Pick 4 ($356.00)

3/11/16: 4 Top Pick Winners ($43.80), 2 Cold Exactas ($62.80), 1 Cold Double ($30.20)

3/26/16: 3 Top Pick Winners ($27.20), 3 Cold Exactas ($58.40), 1 Cold Tri ($85.50), 1 Cold Double ($10.80), 1 Pick 4 ($900.00)

4/2/16: 7 Top Pick Winners ($60.20), 3 Cold Exactas ($52.20), 2 Cold Tri ($65.00), 6 Cold Double ($67.90), 2 Best Bets ($17.70), 1 Pick 4 ($57.00), 1 Pick 5 ($131.00)

4/16/16: 3 Top Pick Winners ($27.50), 1 Cold Exacta ($40.80), 2 Cold Tri ($152.90), Superfecta Box of Day ($506.00), 2 Cold Double ($15.90)

I apologize if my response time has gone down significantly. Taking some time off from the game till next weekend’s Top 50 SSC players NHC qualifier invitational only at Monmouth. Lost my 17th straight 5/6 or 4/5 ticket for a total of $565K in payouts last week and I’d be lying if I said it hasn’t taken its toll on myself, my game and my mental confidence significantly and I really need to be fresh for my biggest tournament to date in my young career thus far next weekend. Had a piss poor week for you guys last week, so I apologize for that to. Hope my final card of the Big A meet is a profitable one and we can finish with over 40% winners on the meet for Dano. Currently sitting at 42% Winners this meet.

I will see you guys again on my home turf in 3 weeks writing for Dano on Saturday’s at Monmouth Park where I promise to prove my worth there with at least 40% winners the entire meet and several Pick 4 & 5 scores. That’s right, PROMISE. Get Hot Stay Hot.

Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $8
Race 1: 4,5
Race 2: 5,7
Race 3: 2,10
Race 4: 6,7
Race 5: 12

Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $216
Race 1: 4,5,6
Race 2: 1,2,5,7
Race 3: 2,4,10
Race 4: 1,2,6,7
Race 5: 2,7,12

Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $4
Race 2: 5,7
Race 3: 2,10
Race 4: 6,7
Race 5: 12

Early Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $72
Note: Would only play if knocked out of 1st leg of early Pick 5
Race 2: 1,2,5,7
Race 3: 2,4,10
Race 4: 1,2,6,7
Race 5: 2,7,12

Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $2
Race 6: 7,9
Race 7: 2,7
Race 8: 8
Race 9: 11

Late Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $96
Race 6: 5,7,9
Race 7: 2,4,7,8
Race 8: 1,3,6,8
Race 9: 8,10,11,15

Race 1: Maiden Claiming, 6 ½ Furlongs, 3YO & Up, (Dirt)
#4 Fleeting Gold is a late runner who did not get the hot contested pace last time out up front and it led to him just missing a score. Was also buried on the lane in that one. Draws a very nice post for his style in this one and the #6 In Condition should be contested the whole way which would lead to a perfect trip for my winner. #5 Excluded seems to make this a two horse race with my winner. Burned the lane start to finish last time out and dropped out of the money while my winner passed him along the way. I was getting engaged during that race, so I could not see if the rail was not the place to be on that day. If that was the case, then easily could be the winner and a $4 exacta to start the day between these 2. I’m not paying 4/5 to see if it was the rail though. The aforementioned #6 In Condition returns from a lengthy layoff and will absolutely be the speed up front, however there’s others that may run him to exhaustion. I like the steady work tabs over the last few months and based off those if no one goes up to contest could take this one wire to wire. Must add in Pick 4/5 if you have the cash and don’t see the pace contestants that I do.

#4 Fleeting Gold 6/5
#5 Excluded 9/5
#6 In Condition 7/2

Race 2: Claiming, 1 Mile, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
#7 Hurry Up Alan was a winner for me at a price last time out but must avoid the bounce here. Recorded career best 91 Beyer figure in that one but it was start number 46, not 2. However, first workout for new barn and it was a bullet 1/51, which has to lead me to believe he’s holding form up to this point. #5 Pass The Dice before you make a comment watch the race replay and stat line from last time out. Yes, he was disqualified for a substantial drift, slowing himself and the other. However, the horse got back up for victory and posted best figure of career. That race is won bump or not and the figures to proceed with the bump make it that more impressive to me. Also drops in class and the barn has had a very good meet. Must use in all exotics. #2 LongFor the City should have the lead gift wrapped in a bow. However, don’t like the trip always taken to get to the lead as tiring always seems to be in the works. Has had some tough trips but even the clean ones seem to return all the same. I expect the same tiring here but should sit on to grasp the show.

#7 Hurry Up Alan 7/2
#5 Pass The Dice 5/2
#2 Longfor The City 2/1

Race 3: Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile, 3YO & UP, (Turf)
#10 Datamining failed to finish a game close out on what turned out to be an elite group of Maiden Special Weights last time out, including 2 graded stakes winners. Looks to be much the best at a money line price that has very little shot at holding. The only other horse I see with a shot is #2 Liam’s Prince but this is one of those reaches for me. The horse reportedly had a shoe issue last time out in a rough performance cutting back. His two best figures have come at Big A on the turf so that leads to a shot. Not putting my money on an even money horse with “a reported shoe issue”. #4 Moegan Avenue was competitive last time out at Gulfstream trying to run down an explosive pace. A couple in that one has shown success after and this one has much more speed than the other closers to snag some pool money.

#10 Datamining 4/1
#2 Liam’s Prince 5/2
#4 Moegan Avenue 7/2

Race 4: Allowance, 1 Mile, 3YO & UP, (Dirt)
#7 In Spite of Mama comes off a lengthy layoff for a barn that has a ridiculous ROI following 60+ day layoffs and a horse that has shown best success off layoffs which include 3 victories. The workouts aren’t too shabby either, top 10% on each day. Ready to fire. #6 Literata has been at her best around one turn and the 6 hole is a prime post for her style of racing. Moves up in class for burning hot Rudy Rod, but the rider change to another horse is this race is very concerning to me. #2 A Few Good Friends recently broke her maiden for trainer Mark Hennig. Has really suffered from bad track conditions for quite some time, but the weather looks ideal for this one finally. Last time it was ideal, she smoked the competition. Part of my Superfecta box play of the day add the #1 Fast Retailing.

#7 In Spite of Mama 6/1
#6 Literata 5/2
#2 A Few Good Friends 15/1
#1 Fast Retailing 4/1 – Add to Superfecta Box Play of Day

Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles, 3YO & Up, (Turf)
#12 Startup Nation will be a single for many in the pools and key in the exotics. I do agree but it’s not an unbeatable favorite that’s for sure. If you really want to score here, I added a few in the Pick 4,5, would chop the pool in at least half if not more. Anywho, you will remember this one as a top contender in the Breeders cup Juvenile turf event. Chad Brown is 30% with turf routers off of 180 day layoffs. Will be fresh and ready to pounce late with the drawn up race setup. #7 Mark My Style returns off a “turf track only” layoff. This horse ended 2015 in great fashion and will look to have added a will to win for 2016. Will be on the close late with my winner, would have to prove he can win the duel going forward. #2 Glowing Ember will be the pacesetter in this one and it is usually a hot one, that’s why I like these closers over him. Will be setting it as early as possible and look to wire to wire the field. Trainer does come in with a very good ROI on 100-200 day layoffs.

#12 Startup Nation 1/1 – Best Bet
#7 Mark My Style 6/1
#2 Glowing Ember 12/1

Race 6: Claiming, 6 Furlongs, 3YO & Up, (Dirt)
#9 Ideal Quality rode a rail completely dry last time out when I selected him for Dano leading to a second place finish. Has showed the versatility to be able to compete in several different make ups and post positions but tends to always get placed on the inside. I will go back to him again as I actually think this outside post will lead to success with a horse that would rather stalk than anything else. #7 Suckitupbuster looks to continue his 2016 campaign with back to back victories with Luis Saez. Had best race of career last time out and the rest of the field is not all that impressive. 7/1 is a steal IMO, hope it stays there or I may have gone elsewhere for second. #5 Gunlock also looks to build on a win last time out but faces winners for the first time. Speeds figures are weak but they put him in even company. Trainers numbers really made me second guess my placement. Not good. Really tough race to open to Late Pick 4. Load up if possible.

#9 Ideal Quality 5/2
#7 Suckitupbuster 8/1
#5 Gunlock 5/1

Race 7: Woodhaven S., 1 & 1/16 Miles, 3YO, (Turf)
#7 Unbridled Daddy drew away from allowance company comfortably in season debut at Gulfstream. Stakes bound colt registered a bullet half mile just last week. IMO has by far the most upside in the race. However, #2 Highland Sky has seen an abundance of troubled trips thus far which is quite concerning for my winner if he finally gets the clean start to finish. Like both #8 Rappel who ran a game race vs. my winner but was ridden very conservatively when it mattered most and #5 Mighty Mo who will be setting the pace and try to hold off the closers and stalkers, also coming off a troubled trip going to wide on what should have been a victory. Add both underneath the 2/7.

#7 Unbridled Daddy 5/2
#2 Highland Sky 3/1
#8 Rappel 10/1
#5 Mighty Mo 5/1

Race 8: New York Stallion S., 6 ½ Furlongs, 3YO, (Dirt)
My second Best Bet goes to #8 Behrnik’s Bank returning off a layoff and the one to catch who gets a very nice post position to funnel down to the front. Has shown the ability over several tries to get well clear, but there is talent that she must hold. Trainer also laid into jockey on board last effort, would hope those issues are straightened out for this affair. #6 Wonderment cuts back in distance after adding Lasix in victorious fashion. My winner should set a hot pace for this one to catch. Setter vs. Closer. #3 Frosty Margarita burns me for place when on her and burns me to win when off her. Have her for 3rd, that means she will probably win this one. I like the switch back to Edwin Gonzalez who took this horse to the winner’s circle for 2 of the 4 victories. Hard to put this horse out of the money when it’s 8 of 8 2nd or higher.

#8 Behrnik’s Bank 5/2 – Best Bet
#6 Wonderment 4/1
#3 Frosty Margarita 3/1

Race 9: Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles, 3YO & Up, (Turf)
#11 Humboldt n Frost returns from a minor layoff as the one to catch. Needs to get clear as unquestionable the best when in that spot. Don’t see many pace contenders on the inside or outside, therefore this should be a clear and away run away wire to wire. #10 Geo Niko will be trying to close in my winner taking a pretty hefty class drop also to do so. Just don’t like the race setup for this one to win, ITM sure but not to win. If horses try to exhaust my winner he has to fight through traffic dropping all around, if he sits off the pace with the rest he has to hope crosses and falls into the perfect path with the rest of the traffic, bad post for this one to be successful with what’s ahead. #8 Baldonnel also returns off a brief layoff. Trainer is 15% with routers starting for the first time out of his barn.

#11 Humboldt n Frost 7/2
#10 Geo Niko 5/1
#8 Baldonnel 6/1


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