Aqueduct, Saturday, April 16th, 2016

2/20/16: 4 Top Pick Winners ($36.40), 4 Cold Exactas ($92.00), 1 Cold Tri ($212.50), 1 Cold Double ($39.00) 1 Pick 4 ($324.00), Best Bet ($7.90)

2/27/16: 1 Top Pick Winner ($7.50), Best Bet ($7.50) – (Multiple scratches I never got to address)

3/5/16: 3 Top Pick Winners ($38.30), 3 Cold Exactas ($66.80), 3 Cold Tri ($99.20), 1 Cold Double ($14.00), 1 Pick 4 ($356.00)

3/11/16: 4 Top Pick Winners ($43.80), 2 Cold Exactas ($62.80), 1 Cold Double ($30.20)

3/26/16: 3 Top Pick Winners ($27.20), 3 Cold Exactas ($58.40), 1 Cold Tri ($85.50), 1 Cold Double ($10.80), 1 Pick 4 ($900.00)

4/2/16: 7 Top Pick Winners ($60.20) 3 Cold Exactas ($52.20), 2 Cold Tri ($65.00), 6 Cold Double ($67.90), 2 Best Bets ($17.70), 1 Pick 4 ($57.00), 1 Pick 5 ($131.00)

Quietly had 7 Top Pick Winners last time out for Dano (the two top pick scratches were replaced by the 2 eventual winners on twitter totaling 7. (@ryne_olsen and also on Dano’s twitter account retweet). Unfortunately, as stated in my pre-analysis paragraph, the card was so chalky we actually lost a few dollars on the Pick 4 and Pick 5 I think. Hopefully you went with Win, Double and Exacta only and punched it several times as there was still money to be made there. Takes me to 45% winners for Dano this meet, excluding the non-tournament scratch fixes. There’s actually races without fields of only 4 horses this week, so let’s finally beat some overvalued favorites. Get Hot Stay Hot.

Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $12
Race 1: 1,7
Race 2: 3,4,5
Race 3: 1,7
Race 4: 5
Race 5: 1,2

Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $120
Race 1: 1,3,5,6,7
Race 2: 3,4,5,6
Race 3: 1,5,7
Race 4: 5,6
Race 5: 1,2

Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $6
Race 2: 3,4,5
Race 3: 1,7
Race 4: 5
Race 5: 1,2

Early Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $24
Race 2: 3,4,5,6
Race 3: 1,5,7
Race 4: 5,6
Race 5: 1,2

Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) -$16
Race 6: 6,7
Race 7: 1,10
Race 8: 2,7
Race 9: 4,7

Late Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $90
Race 6: 6,7
Race 7: 1,9,10
Race 8: 1/1A,2,4,7,8
Race 9: 2,4,7,10,12,16

Race 1: Claiming, 6 ½ Furlongs, 3YO & Up, (Dirt)
#1 Try Flying is the lone turn back speed horse in the race with very questionable speed elsewhere. Has improved under Gary Gullo after posting top Beyer figure, nearly winning on two turns in that race. Should have the pace up front to make the wanted run late. #7 Crowd Funding won a very questionable race last time out vs. an extremely weak field. This will be the first time vs. winners, however Chad Brown is 41% with claimers on dirt exiting maiden wins. #6 Park Ranger returns very quickly for a trainer that excels on 1-7 day turn arounds. Would have to think this one showed Randi Persaud the same as previous runners to make that call.

#1 Try Flying 5/2
#7 Crowd Funding 2/1
#6 Park Ranger 10/1

Race 2: Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 Mile, 3YO, (Turf)
Tough race as essentially all are changing surfaces for the first time or back to it for the first time in a long time. I lean to #4 Tapa Liath have a hunch here that the horse is primed to return to debut numbers. If so, best in the race. Have good knowledge of Blue Devil Racing Stables and Saez is no slouch either. #5 Miss Kew has done best work on the turf. Needs a hot tiring pace up front to be able to stalk and close late. #3 Flatware has already beaten my second choice but Miss Kew was ridiculously pace compromised in that race. Has also done best work on the turf and could be the one to beat if it was a dirt surface struggle and not the horse after all this time.

#4 Tapa Liath 7/2
#5 Miss Kew 2/1
#3 Flatware 9/5

Race 3: Claiming, 6 ½ Furlongs, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
#7 Whateveryouwant takes a monster class drop after finishing runner up to a graded stakes winner who went on to win the next two after that race. Is the outside speed putting him in prime position to stalk and pounce. Additionally, Michelle Nevin is 40% with dirt starters when taking a 50% price drop with a 5-year sample size. #1 Be A Hero takes a very questionable and annoying David Jacobson class drop after posting two best figures of career vs. better in class. Continuously ruining the game. #5 Frazil recently picked up win 20 of career like it was his first. That win also now makes him 3 for 3 at 6 ½ Furlongs. Will be looking to chase down my winner.

#7 Whateveryouwant 7/2
#1 Be A Hero 2/1
#5 Frazil 3/1

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles, 3YO & Up, (Turf)
Another chalky Best Bet of the Day #5 Cloontia faces NY Breds for the first time for sneaky successful trainer Jimmy Jerkens. Son of Sidney’s Candy, half to Wicked Strong and successful turf horse Abbey Street has performed well vs. much tougher on the turf, but does have a tendency to fail late (3 times at Gulfstream in the same spot). I think the lack of competition in this compared to what he faced in those faltering races will be the difference. #6 Call Provision is a half-brother to four turf winners, including two which have six figure earnings, and one that was a Graded 2 turf stakes winner. Additionally, Chad Brown is 31% on turf vs. NY Breds. Must add to Pick 4 and 5. #4 Analyze Dattt face planted in turf debut but gathered himself to make a move to be in contention. Had a brutal winter on the dirt and now returns to the turf where improvement should lie.

#5 Cloontia 4/5 – Best Bet
#6 Call Provision 4/1
#4 Analyze Dattt 15/1

Race 5: Allowance, 6 Furlongs, 3YO & Up, (Dirt)
#2 Bustin The Bank returns quickly for John Toscano after career best form in a narrow loss vs. claimers last time out. Based on the numbers, should easily be the controlling speed and could save ground by riding the rail dry if asked. #1 Private Thrill comes off 3 straight 70+ Beyer figures, a 4th straight figure in that range makes him one to beat. #3 Yakov was second best to a very good horse from the Zilla Racing Stables in Swell last time out. Gave Swell all he could handle in that one. It took Swell’s best figure in that race to hold off this horse. Will be up front early and the one for the other two to catch. Would be my winner, but Swell was very underwhelming last time out.

#2 Bustin The Bank 6/5
#1 Private Thrill 5/1
#3 Yakov 9/5

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, 3YO, (Dirt)
#6 Adulator was buried on the tote board last time out at Gulfstream where I’ve always found that board to be extremely sharp. Did not perform after a double face plant start. Sneaky good Jimmy Jerkens is the trainer here. Horse supports a good pedigree and very sharp work coming in. #7 Dark as Midnight was also heavily bet last time out, but went to wide on the turn to be a factor while chasing a slow pace. Better move this time out for arguably the hottest jockey in the game right now. Must add to Pick 4 and 5. #9 Market Sentiment is half-brother to seven winners including a multiple Grade 2 winner. Aqueduct training horse has bullet works on both the inner and main track.

#6 Adulator 5/2
#7 Dark as Midnight 2/1
#9 Market Sentiment 12/1

Race 7: Plenty of Grace S., 1 Mile, 4YO & Up, (Turf)
Really find this field extremely weak/overrated/overvalued so my value play of the day goes to #1 Angel Vision returns for Dilger quickly after a game race finishing 4 lengths from the winner. The jockey/trainer combination have great statistical numbers along with a lucrative ROI. Though many find no correlation, has faced better up in class on the foreign tracks and won. Has the numbers to be there closing late. #10 Mrs. Mcdougal will be the tough horse for my value play to beat but also presents to me little margin of error to be successful. Is a Grade 2 turf winner behind a Chad Brown barn that hits at 39% with turf routers on a 100-200 day break over the last 5 years. Seems to need the perfect trip to stalk and strike. #9 Harp n Halo took wins in both of his 2015 turf races at very nice prices in both. Comes in to this one 5 for 10 on career and most of the losses have come on unsuccessful dirt attempts.

#1 Angel Vision 20/1
#10 Mrs. Mcdougal 2/1
#9 Harp n Halo 6/1

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming, 7 Furlongs, 3YO & Up, (Dirt)
#2 Uncharted Course has posted extremely impressive numbers over the last two races in improvement. If he tops those or runs to the same would be instantly a gate to wire possibility with the inside post draw. #7 Beyond the Green was a maiden winner at this spot last season. Coming into the race following his best Beyer figure to date by an impressive 10-point improvement. #4 More Zen Tea got worn out chasing a very hot pace last time out and faltered. Based on the replays, it appeared to be his best race to date. The cutback in distance should help the tire and also a different pace up front puts him into a definite contender.

#2 Uncharted Course 5/2
#7 Beyond the Green 3/1
#4 More Zen Tea 6/1

Race 9: Claiming, 1 Mile, 4YO & Up, (Turf)
Thought the finale was wide open as you can see I went 6 deep in the pick 4 and could probably have added on. With that being said what’s currently being offered in the race my lean goes to #7 China Prince who had limited success until Velasquez got on board with one of his favorite partners in David Jacobson. Since then has opened up the 2016 season with 2 wins in 4 tries. I expect the train to keep rolling here in this open race. #4 Dream Man will be the tough one for my value play to beat. Was really compromised in a slow pace last time out but did finish ITM. Should get a better pace, leading to a better trip here and will be a good price. #2 Street Shark the son of Street Sense has the ideal post position today if already not dangerous as a very good turf horse. Add #10 Foxhall Drive or #12 Live in Joy underneath the winner for Superfecta/Trifecta box of day.

#7 China Prince 8/1
#4 Dream Man 4/1
#2 Street Shark 12/1


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