Aqueduct, Saturday, April 2nd, 2016

2/20/16: 4 Top Pick Winners ($36.40) 4 Cold Exactas ($92.00), 1 Cold Tri ($212.50), 1 Cold Double ($39.00) 1 Pick 4 ($324.00), Best Bet ($7.90)

2/27/16: 1 Top Pick Winner ($7.50), Best Bet ($7.50) – (Multiple scratches I never got to address)

3/5/16: 3 Top Pick Winners ($38.30) 3 Cold Exactas ($66.80), 3 Cold Tri ($99.20), 1 Cold Double ($14.00), 1 Pick 4 ($356.00)

3/11/16: 4 Top Pick Winners ($43.80) 2 Cold Exactas ($62.80), 1 Cold Double ($30.20)

3/26/16: 3 Top Pick Winners ($27.20) 3 Cold Exactas ($58.40), 1 Cold Tri ($85.50), 1 Cold Double ($10.80), 1 Pick 4 ($900.00)

Quietly picking 39% winners during this meet (excluding the tournament day scratches). That’s not so bad but would like to average at least 4-5 winners a card for you though. My expertise has always been in the Pick 4,5 pools and we’ve landed at least one on 3 of 4 cards, so I am definitely happy with that. Looking forward to the Florida Derby, some very good Final Four Basketball and Opening Day of Baseball this weekend. Glad I can finally put going 5/6 on two separate tickets in the Rainbow 6 last weekend (due to gate falls none to less) behind me with the events to come. I will absolutely dabble in what should be about a million-dollar Pick 5 pool at Gulfstream (backside). I will post that play on Saturday afternoon for you if you desire to dabble with me. Dano will also have one live, hopefully we can cash not 1 but 2 for the great and dedicated website he has going. Get Hot Stay Hot.

Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $8
Race 1: 2,4
Race 2: 3
Race 3: 2,3
Race 4: 2,6
Race 5: 1,6

Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $192
Race 1: 1,2,4,5
Race 2: 2,3,4,5
Race 3: 2,3
Race 4: 2,5,6
Race 5: 1,3,4,6

Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $4
Race 2: 3
Race 3: 2,3
Race 4: 2,6
Race 5: 1,6

Early Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $48
Race 2: 2,3,4,5
Race 3: 2,3
Race 4: 2,5,6
Race 5: 1,3,4,6

Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $3
Race 7: 3
Race 8: 3
Race 9: 4,9,10
Race 10: 6,10

Late Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $60
Race 7: 1,3,4
Race 8: 3,7
Race 9: 4,6,9,10
Race 10: 1,5,6,7,10

Race 1: Videogenic S., 6 Furlongs, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
#2 Sweet on Smokey has been in best form of career since last fall. Ships in following a failed game rally to multiple graded stakes winner Lady Sabelia. Best success is when substantial pace is up front and there’s 3 here that will secure that. Though coming from a high percentage barn, I have a stat here that they are 1 for their last 11, concerning. #4 Two Step Flor and #5 Bileaps and Bounds are both going first time off the claim. One for trainer meet leader Rudy Rod, and the other for 28% winner off the claim David Jacobson. These two will be in a speed duel up front. I like Two Step Flor better as this is daughter of Two Step Salsa; proven on the dirt. If one of these tires and fades from the dual, #1 Midnight Champagne with Moochie will be there to pick up the WPS pool pieces. Should get a beautiful trip on the inside rail and has been very successful on this inner track. Hopefully no one scratches, this is my 1st Exacta/Trifecta/Superfecta box of the day.

#2 Sweet on Smokey 1/1
#4 Two Step Flor 3/1
#5 Bileaps and Bounds 5/1
#1 Midnight Champagne 6/1 – Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta Box Addition

Race 2: Kelly Kip S., 6 Furlongs, 4 YO & Up, (Dirt)
#3 Rockford is a veteran horse that is as versatile as they come. Has win or placed in the last 7 races. In those 7, there has been fast and slow pace, sloppy, good, fast tracks and he has been the pace, stalked the pace and closed the pace. Won 2 back off the claim for Repole Stable and trainer Bruce Levine who is hitting at a 24% clip at this meet, in this spot. #4 Tug of War is a bettor’s dream, winning 4 times at 7/1 or higher since the summer all on NYRA dirt surfaces. Will be a square price again in this one, cuts back in distance and comes in with a very sharp work. The pace of Rockford may end up being the horse’s own doom if Tug of War can stalk it. #5 Hector’s Pride is 2 for 2 since adding blinkers and has done it forwardly and behind. Really beat up competition last time I selected him March 5th burning the rail right down to the ground start to finish. Trainer Carlos Martin is 4 for 9 in last 30 days. Add #2 Collin’s Pride for my 2nd Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta box of the day.

#3 Rockford 8/5 – Best Bet
#4 Tug of War 6/1
#5 Hector’s Pride 9/5
#2 Collin’s Smile 5/1 – Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta Box Addition

Race 3: Xtra Heat S., 6 Furlongs, 4YO & UP, (Dirt)
#2 SweetRayOfSunshine was very un-impressive last time out. Sat in a very good stalking position but let the pace get way too far to even threaten the closing stages. However, that horse has had additional success last time out and this field is not as good. Additionally, has never finished out of the money in a 6-furlong race and enters in with 10 wins.  The stalkers partner will be #3 Stormy Sky who has won or placed in the last 4 starts and did complete a last to first victory on this surface before. Like SweetRayOfSunshine, last time out let the pace setter get away also. However, the one that got away in that one has not had additional success and that field was not as good, that’s why I gave the nod to my winner. Pick your poison for 3rd, could not make an argument for any of them. I probably should go with the pace setter but none are as impressive to not be caught. Coin flip on the 3rd stalker #1 Distinctive Lady.

#2 SweetRayOfSunshine 8/5
#3 Stormy Sky 7/5
#1 Distinctive Lady 4/1

Race 4: More to Tell S., 1 Mile, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
This race and the next will be the Pick 4 & 5 ticket breaker or builder. Tough to have statistical faith in any of these. #6 Bears Personality is in the best form of his career over the last 3 races winning by a combined 20 lengths and will look to pick up his 4th straight victory in this one. Beat my 3rd selection last time out Mr. Palmer at Parx and will make this short trip to the NYRA track. Had limited success on synthetic but the same cannot be said for the switch to dirt as his only loss was a Graded 3 stakes where he drew the worst post and face planted out of the gate. Concerned that the trainer has shown essentially 0 success at this track in his lifetime. 8% for the amount of attempts makes this race a lot harder to pick a winner then people may think.  #2 Lucky Lotto prefers inner track and two turns and draws neither in this one. Best horse in the race yes, at this spot, no. #5 Mr. Palmer returns to his home dirt, gets wanted pace and I would think gets a better trip this time. Was better in every single race before last where he had absolutely no interest when called to fire. Concerning.

#6 Bears Personality 2/1
#2 Lucky Lotto 5/2
#5 Mr. Palmer 3/1

Race 5: Peeping Tom S., 6 Furlongs, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
As stated above, this one is no easier than the previous. As you can see I went 4 & 5 deep in the pool tickets, I see a lot of possibilities here. My slight lean in this one went to #6 Beach Hut as Navarro teams up with Preciado where they have a lot of success together but like stated in the last, Preciado has no success here, can he get 1 of the 2 home for me? Should be a vicious speed duel up front which would be huge for this horse in stalking. #1 Dad’z Laugh is son of Black Mambo and has been game in last 3, all in the money. Trainer wins at a 23% clip first off the claim. Will be setting the pace and could even instead attempt to get to far away for the heavy closers behind. #4 Jeter was a huge score for me last time out around $20 for every $2 in the tournament in a hand ride, propelled me to 3rd for majority of the day. Should again be in stalking position sitting near Beach Hut. Eddie Barker looks to score back to back off the claim victory. Plus, it’s my dog’s 2nd birthday today, named, Jeter.

#6 Beach Hut 2/1
#1 Dad’z Laugh 3/1
#4 Jeter 12/1

Race 6: Mr. Sinatra S., 1 1/18 Miles, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
#2 Royal Posse almost won the Haynesfield last time out but a move way too soon IMO changed that outcome as he lost ground on not just one but both turns. On his best day would blow this field away. The rider change will only help and the bullet trainings going into this one don’t hurt either. #4 DontBetWithBruno to no surprise has made drastic improvements since being claimed by Todd Pletcher.  Topped Beyer figure 3x in a row and adds 8 pounds for this one. However, first time on the main track and the pedigree did not like it which is a concern to me. Another pick your poison spot, my slight lean goes to #5 Little Jerry who will be the one to catch but I expect him to tire and hold on for the show. Switches surfaces for Jacobson, will need to get far away and not worry about the pace behind to take this one.

#2 Royal Posse 9/5
#4 DontBetWithBruno 2/1
#5 Little Jerry 5/1

Race 7: Stud Muffin S., 1 Mile, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
#3 Toledo Eddie is my 2nd best bet of the day, unfortunately at 7/5. After a lengthy layoff won by literally a pole at Santa Anita and recorded best Beyer figure in that race at 106 vs. horses that you will absolutely see win graded stakes races going forward. David Jacobson is the trainer and hits at 36% with these horses, in this spot. #1 Second City gives me a good price after being quite impressive last race out even in losing fashion. The favorite in that race wired the field and the jockey never got into him as it was never in doubt. Would expect more speed here as this one may not be in doubt but if it ends up in same fashion, may be primed for a big play next time out. #4 African Fighter steps down in competition and the pace of this field could play right into his hand. Son of Tiznow (something I always look for) is a two-time winner in this spot and had won 3 in a row prior to the last tough race. Must add to your late pick 4 if you have money to prime the ticket.

#3 Toledo Eddie 7/5 – Best Bet (Choice 2 of the 2)
#1 Second City 8/1
#4 African Fighter 3/1

Race 8: Sis City S., 1 Mile, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
#3 Can Can Babe is another very versatile horse having won the last 3 on 3 different track conditions. Ships in from California off a layoff and should be the controlling speed of the race. Jockey is at his best on the front end so they are a match made in heaven. However, this horse must be on the front end to win after looking at race history. Too bad you can’t live bet because if the horse isn’t there, neither is the victory. #7 Darnley Bay is my statistical play of the day. Love Moochie, love him more with Domino. If the race breaks down as drawn up, should clean up the place/show pool. #1 Just Got Out broke out of the gate poorly last time out but ran great after to secure the victory. Will need the rest of the field to run Can Can Babe to exhaustion so that the close is wide open. Don’t think that happens but I do think the late kick gets on the board.

#3 Can Can Babe 4/5 – Best Bet (Choice 1 of 2)
#7 Darnley Bay 8/1
#1 Just Got Out 6/1

Race 9: Caixa Eletronica S., 7 Furlongs, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
The late Pick 4 ticket breaker lies here. #4 Eighty Three is in best form of career and should get an outstanding trip based on race breakdown. Only successful in stalking/closer position and loves to make you sweat it out late, seems to love the joy of the photo finish flash at the wire. #9 Cerro goes first off the claim for one of this meet’s sneaky best, Danny Gargan. Will be the early speed on the front end that my winner will look to catch. My concern is that there is a ton of speed in here and this horse is not successful unless clear on the front end. Danny Gargan also really excels on the front end so it’s a must. Running next to Cerro may be #10 Nubin Ridge who has sat off the pace to close with Eighty Three successfully but also sat on the front end to give Cerro a run for his money, which he has before but lost that battle. Outside post is ideal for the late close with Eighty Three but may not get that opportunity if jockey/trainer agree to much speed to sit and try and battle back late.

#4 Eighty Three 3/1
#9 Cerro 7/2
#10 Nubin Ridge 4/1

Race 10: Karakorum Elektra S., 7 Furlongs, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
My value play of the day goes to #6 Winning for Sarah who is also in best form of career, coming off career best race on March 10th. Rios and Antonucci together have a ROI of +54%. Have to ride the wave of continuous improvement here. Speed figure has gone up a full 10 points the last 3 races, EACH RACE, not total, that’s no joke. #10 Brenda’s Way fits the class position but seems to be caught all too often for me, especially at racetracks that really don’t show me all that much. Would expect the same here on the front end trying to control the speed as my value comes up and takes it down. #7 Nuffsaid Nuffsaid will be with Brenda’s way on the front end for heavy front end trainer Danny Gargan. Has no business being in the spot last race and not even sure if she has enough for this one. Very quick, but need to see more. I see a lot of possible winners here. If I have a good day and got you a good amount of money to this point, or you are live to a nice payoff in Pick 4. Add #1 Stroke Play and #5 La Inesperada to some type of Trifecta, Exacta, Superfecta Box with what I’ve already listed. Will pay very nice if the value play lands on top. 3rd Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta Box of the day if we’re cooking with straight gasoline to this point.

#6 Winning for Sarah 10/1 – Value Play of the Day
#10 Brenda’s Way 6/1
#7 Nuffsaid Nuffsaid 9/2
#1 Stroke Play 5/2 – For Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta Purposes

#5 La Inesperada 7/2 – For Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta Purposes

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