Aqueduct, Saturday, April 23rd, 2016

2/20/16: 4 Top Pick Winners ($36.40), 4 Cold Exactas ($92.00), 1 Cold Tri ($212.50), 1 Cold Double ($39.00) 1 Pick 4 ($324.00), Best Bet ($7.90)

2/27/16: 1 Top Pick Winner ($7.50), Best Bet ($7.50) – (Multiple scratches I never got to address)

3/5/16: 3 Top Pick Winners ($38.30), 3 Cold Exactas ($66.80), 3 Cold Tri ($99.20), 1 Cold Double ($14.00), 1 Pick 4 ($356.00)

3/11/16: 4 Top Pick Winners ($43.80), 2 Cold Exactas ($62.80), 1 Cold Double ($30.20)

3/26/16: 3 Top Pick Winners ($27.20), 3 Cold Exactas ($58.40), 1 Cold Tri ($85.50), 1 Cold Double ($10.80), 1 Pick 4 ($900.00)

4/2/16: 7 Top Pick Winners ($60.20), 3 Cold Exactas ($52.20), 2 Cold Tri ($65.00), 6 Cold Double ($67.90), 2 Best Bets ($17.70), 1 Pick 4 ($57.00), 1 Pick 5 ($131.00)

4/16/16: 3 Top Pick Winners ($27.50), 1 Cold Exacta ($40.80), 2 Cold Tri ($152.90), Superfecta Box of Day ($506.00), 2 Cold Double ($15.90)

I apologize if my response time has gone down significantly. Taking some time off from the game till next weekend’s Top 50 SSC players NHC qualifier invitational only at Monmouth. Lost my 17th straight 5/6 or 4/5 ticket for a total of $565K in payouts last week and I’d be lying if I said it hasn’t taken its toll on myself, my game and my mental confidence significantly and I really need to be fresh for my biggest tournament to date in my young career thus far next weekend. Had a piss poor week for you guys last week, so I apologize for that to. Hope my final card of the Big A meet is a profitable one and we can finish with over 40% winners on the meet for Dano. Currently sitting at 42% Winners this meet.

I will see you guys again on my home turf in 3 weeks writing for Dano on Saturday’s at Monmouth Park where I promise to prove my worth there with at least 40% winners the entire meet and several Pick 4 & 5 scores. That’s right, PROMISE. Get Hot Stay Hot.

Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $8
Race 1: 4,5
Race 2: 5,7
Race 3: 2,10
Race 4: 6,7
Race 5: 12

Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $216
Race 1: 4,5,6
Race 2: 1,2,5,7
Race 3: 2,4,10
Race 4: 1,2,6,7
Race 5: 2,7,12

Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $4
Race 2: 5,7
Race 3: 2,10
Race 4: 6,7
Race 5: 12

Early Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $72
Note: Would only play if knocked out of 1st leg of early Pick 5
Race 2: 1,2,5,7
Race 3: 2,4,10
Race 4: 1,2,6,7
Race 5: 2,7,12

Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $2
Race 6: 7,9
Race 7: 2,7
Race 8: 8
Race 9: 11

Late Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $96
Race 6: 5,7,9
Race 7: 2,4,7,8
Race 8: 1,3,6,8
Race 9: 8,10,11,15

Race 1: Maiden Claiming, 6 ½ Furlongs, 3YO & Up, (Dirt)
#4 Fleeting Gold is a late runner who did not get the hot contested pace last time out up front and it led to him just missing a score. Was also buried on the lane in that one. Draws a very nice post for his style in this one and the #6 In Condition should be contested the whole way which would lead to a perfect trip for my winner. #5 Excluded seems to make this a two horse race with my winner. Burned the lane start to finish last time out and dropped out of the money while my winner passed him along the way. I was getting engaged during that race, so I could not see if the rail was not the place to be on that day. If that was the case, then easily could be the winner and a $4 exacta to start the day between these 2. I’m not paying 4/5 to see if it was the rail though. The aforementioned #6 In Condition returns from a lengthy layoff and will absolutely be the speed up front, however there’s others that may run him to exhaustion. I like the steady work tabs over the last few months and based off those if no one goes up to contest could take this one wire to wire. Must add in Pick 4/5 if you have the cash and don’t see the pace contestants that I do.

#4 Fleeting Gold 6/5
#5 Excluded 9/5
#6 In Condition 7/2

Race 2: Claiming, 1 Mile, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
#7 Hurry Up Alan was a winner for me at a price last time out but must avoid the bounce here. Recorded career best 91 Beyer figure in that one but it was start number 46, not 2. However, first workout for new barn and it was a bullet 1/51, which has to lead me to believe he’s holding form up to this point. #5 Pass The Dice before you make a comment watch the race replay and stat line from last time out. Yes, he was disqualified for a substantial drift, slowing himself and the other. However, the horse got back up for victory and posted best figure of career. That race is won bump or not and the figures to proceed with the bump make it that more impressive to me. Also drops in class and the barn has had a very good meet. Must use in all exotics. #2 LongFor the City should have the lead gift wrapped in a bow. However, don’t like the trip always taken to get to the lead as tiring always seems to be in the works. Has had some tough trips but even the clean ones seem to return all the same. I expect the same tiring here but should sit on to grasp the show.

#7 Hurry Up Alan 7/2
#5 Pass The Dice 5/2
#2 Longfor The City 2/1

Race 3: Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile, 3YO & UP, (Turf)
#10 Datamining failed to finish a game close out on what turned out to be an elite group of Maiden Special Weights last time out, including 2 graded stakes winners. Looks to be much the best at a money line price that has very little shot at holding. The only other horse I see with a shot is #2 Liam’s Prince but this is one of those reaches for me. The horse reportedly had a shoe issue last time out in a rough performance cutting back. His two best figures have come at Big A on the turf so that leads to a shot. Not putting my money on an even money horse with “a reported shoe issue”. #4 Moegan Avenue was competitive last time out at Gulfstream trying to run down an explosive pace. A couple in that one has shown success after and this one has much more speed than the other closers to snag some pool money.

#10 Datamining 4/1
#2 Liam’s Prince 5/2
#4 Moegan Avenue 7/2

Race 4: Allowance, 1 Mile, 3YO & UP, (Dirt)
#7 In Spite of Mama comes off a lengthy layoff for a barn that has a ridiculous ROI following 60+ day layoffs and a horse that has shown best success off layoffs which include 3 victories. The workouts aren’t too shabby either, top 10% on each day. Ready to fire. #6 Literata has been at her best around one turn and the 6 hole is a prime post for her style of racing. Moves up in class for burning hot Rudy Rod, but the rider change to another horse is this race is very concerning to me. #2 A Few Good Friends recently broke her maiden for trainer Mark Hennig. Has really suffered from bad track conditions for quite some time, but the weather looks ideal for this one finally. Last time it was ideal, she smoked the competition. Part of my Superfecta box play of the day add the #1 Fast Retailing.

#7 In Spite of Mama 6/1
#6 Literata 5/2
#2 A Few Good Friends 15/1
#1 Fast Retailing 4/1 – Add to Superfecta Box Play of Day

Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles, 3YO & Up, (Turf)
#12 Startup Nation will be a single for many in the pools and key in the exotics. I do agree but it’s not an unbeatable favorite that’s for sure. If you really want to score here, I added a few in the Pick 4,5, would chop the pool in at least half if not more. Anywho, you will remember this one as a top contender in the Breeders cup Juvenile turf event. Chad Brown is 30% with turf routers off of 180 day layoffs. Will be fresh and ready to pounce late with the drawn up race setup. #7 Mark My Style returns off a “turf track only” layoff. This horse ended 2015 in great fashion and will look to have added a will to win for 2016. Will be on the close late with my winner, would have to prove he can win the duel going forward. #2 Glowing Ember will be the pacesetter in this one and it is usually a hot one, that’s why I like these closers over him. Will be setting it as early as possible and look to wire to wire the field. Trainer does come in with a very good ROI on 100-200 day layoffs.

#12 Startup Nation 1/1 – Best Bet
#7 Mark My Style 6/1
#2 Glowing Ember 12/1

Race 6: Claiming, 6 Furlongs, 3YO & Up, (Dirt)
#9 Ideal Quality rode a rail completely dry last time out when I selected him for Dano leading to a second place finish. Has showed the versatility to be able to compete in several different make ups and post positions but tends to always get placed on the inside. I will go back to him again as I actually think this outside post will lead to success with a horse that would rather stalk than anything else. #7 Suckitupbuster looks to continue his 2016 campaign with back to back victories with Luis Saez. Had best race of career last time out and the rest of the field is not all that impressive. 7/1 is a steal IMO, hope it stays there or I may have gone elsewhere for second. #5 Gunlock also looks to build on a win last time out but faces winners for the first time. Speeds figures are weak but they put him in even company. Trainers numbers really made me second guess my placement. Not good. Really tough race to open to Late Pick 4. Load up if possible.

#9 Ideal Quality 5/2
#7 Suckitupbuster 8/1
#5 Gunlock 5/1

Race 7: Woodhaven S., 1 & 1/16 Miles, 3YO, (Turf)
#7 Unbridled Daddy drew away from allowance company comfortably in season debut at Gulfstream. Stakes bound colt registered a bullet half mile just last week. IMO has by far the most upside in the race. However, #2 Highland Sky has seen an abundance of troubled trips thus far which is quite concerning for my winner if he finally gets the clean start to finish. Like both #8 Rappel who ran a game race vs. my winner but was ridden very conservatively when it mattered most and #5 Mighty Mo who will be setting the pace and try to hold off the closers and stalkers, also coming off a troubled trip going to wide on what should have been a victory. Add both underneath the 2/7.

#7 Unbridled Daddy 5/2
#2 Highland Sky 3/1
#8 Rappel 10/1
#5 Mighty Mo 5/1

Race 8: New York Stallion S., 6 ½ Furlongs, 3YO, (Dirt)
My second Best Bet goes to #8 Behrnik’s Bank returning off a layoff and the one to catch who gets a very nice post position to funnel down to the front. Has shown the ability over several tries to get well clear, but there is talent that she must hold. Trainer also laid into jockey on board last effort, would hope those issues are straightened out for this affair. #6 Wonderment cuts back in distance after adding Lasix in victorious fashion. My winner should set a hot pace for this one to catch. Setter vs. Closer. #3 Frosty Margarita burns me for place when on her and burns me to win when off her. Have her for 3rd, that means she will probably win this one. I like the switch back to Edwin Gonzalez who took this horse to the winner’s circle for 2 of the 4 victories. Hard to put this horse out of the money when it’s 8 of 8 2nd or higher.

#8 Behrnik’s Bank 5/2 – Best Bet
#6 Wonderment 4/1
#3 Frosty Margarita 3/1

Race 9: Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles, 3YO & Up, (Turf)
#11 Humboldt n Frost returns from a minor layoff as the one to catch. Needs to get clear as unquestionable the best when in that spot. Don’t see many pace contenders on the inside or outside, therefore this should be a clear and away run away wire to wire. #10 Geo Niko will be trying to close in my winner taking a pretty hefty class drop also to do so. Just don’t like the race setup for this one to win, ITM sure but not to win. If horses try to exhaust my winner he has to fight through traffic dropping all around, if he sits off the pace with the rest he has to hope crosses and falls into the perfect path with the rest of the traffic, bad post for this one to be successful with what’s ahead. #8 Baldonnel also returns off a brief layoff. Trainer is 15% with routers starting for the first time out of his barn.

#11 Humboldt n Frost 7/2
#10 Geo Niko 5/1
#8 Baldonnel 6/1


Aqueduct, Saturday, April 16th, 2016

2/20/16: 4 Top Pick Winners ($36.40), 4 Cold Exactas ($92.00), 1 Cold Tri ($212.50), 1 Cold Double ($39.00) 1 Pick 4 ($324.00), Best Bet ($7.90)

2/27/16: 1 Top Pick Winner ($7.50), Best Bet ($7.50) – (Multiple scratches I never got to address)

3/5/16: 3 Top Pick Winners ($38.30), 3 Cold Exactas ($66.80), 3 Cold Tri ($99.20), 1 Cold Double ($14.00), 1 Pick 4 ($356.00)

3/11/16: 4 Top Pick Winners ($43.80), 2 Cold Exactas ($62.80), 1 Cold Double ($30.20)

3/26/16: 3 Top Pick Winners ($27.20), 3 Cold Exactas ($58.40), 1 Cold Tri ($85.50), 1 Cold Double ($10.80), 1 Pick 4 ($900.00)

4/2/16: 7 Top Pick Winners ($60.20) 3 Cold Exactas ($52.20), 2 Cold Tri ($65.00), 6 Cold Double ($67.90), 2 Best Bets ($17.70), 1 Pick 4 ($57.00), 1 Pick 5 ($131.00)

Quietly had 7 Top Pick Winners last time out for Dano (the two top pick scratches were replaced by the 2 eventual winners on twitter totaling 7. (@ryne_olsen and also on Dano’s twitter account retweet). Unfortunately, as stated in my pre-analysis paragraph, the card was so chalky we actually lost a few dollars on the Pick 4 and Pick 5 I think. Hopefully you went with Win, Double and Exacta only and punched it several times as there was still money to be made there. Takes me to 45% winners for Dano this meet, excluding the non-tournament scratch fixes. There’s actually races without fields of only 4 horses this week, so let’s finally beat some overvalued favorites. Get Hot Stay Hot.

Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $12
Race 1: 1,7
Race 2: 3,4,5
Race 3: 1,7
Race 4: 5
Race 5: 1,2

Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $120
Race 1: 1,3,5,6,7
Race 2: 3,4,5,6
Race 3: 1,5,7
Race 4: 5,6
Race 5: 1,2

Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $6
Race 2: 3,4,5
Race 3: 1,7
Race 4: 5
Race 5: 1,2

Early Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $24
Race 2: 3,4,5,6
Race 3: 1,5,7
Race 4: 5,6
Race 5: 1,2

Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) -$16
Race 6: 6,7
Race 7: 1,10
Race 8: 2,7
Race 9: 4,7

Late Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $90
Race 6: 6,7
Race 7: 1,9,10
Race 8: 1/1A,2,4,7,8
Race 9: 2,4,7,10,12,16

Race 1: Claiming, 6 ½ Furlongs, 3YO & Up, (Dirt)
#1 Try Flying is the lone turn back speed horse in the race with very questionable speed elsewhere. Has improved under Gary Gullo after posting top Beyer figure, nearly winning on two turns in that race. Should have the pace up front to make the wanted run late. #7 Crowd Funding won a very questionable race last time out vs. an extremely weak field. This will be the first time vs. winners, however Chad Brown is 41% with claimers on dirt exiting maiden wins. #6 Park Ranger returns very quickly for a trainer that excels on 1-7 day turn arounds. Would have to think this one showed Randi Persaud the same as previous runners to make that call.

#1 Try Flying 5/2
#7 Crowd Funding 2/1
#6 Park Ranger 10/1

Race 2: Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 Mile, 3YO, (Turf)
Tough race as essentially all are changing surfaces for the first time or back to it for the first time in a long time. I lean to #4 Tapa Liath have a hunch here that the horse is primed to return to debut numbers. If so, best in the race. Have good knowledge of Blue Devil Racing Stables and Saez is no slouch either. #5 Miss Kew has done best work on the turf. Needs a hot tiring pace up front to be able to stalk and close late. #3 Flatware has already beaten my second choice but Miss Kew was ridiculously pace compromised in that race. Has also done best work on the turf and could be the one to beat if it was a dirt surface struggle and not the horse after all this time.

#4 Tapa Liath 7/2
#5 Miss Kew 2/1
#3 Flatware 9/5

Race 3: Claiming, 6 ½ Furlongs, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
#7 Whateveryouwant takes a monster class drop after finishing runner up to a graded stakes winner who went on to win the next two after that race. Is the outside speed putting him in prime position to stalk and pounce. Additionally, Michelle Nevin is 40% with dirt starters when taking a 50% price drop with a 5-year sample size. #1 Be A Hero takes a very questionable and annoying David Jacobson class drop after posting two best figures of career vs. better in class. Continuously ruining the game. #5 Frazil recently picked up win 20 of career like it was his first. That win also now makes him 3 for 3 at 6 ½ Furlongs. Will be looking to chase down my winner.

#7 Whateveryouwant 7/2
#1 Be A Hero 2/1
#5 Frazil 3/1

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles, 3YO & Up, (Turf)
Another chalky Best Bet of the Day #5 Cloontia faces NY Breds for the first time for sneaky successful trainer Jimmy Jerkens. Son of Sidney’s Candy, half to Wicked Strong and successful turf horse Abbey Street has performed well vs. much tougher on the turf, but does have a tendency to fail late (3 times at Gulfstream in the same spot). I think the lack of competition in this compared to what he faced in those faltering races will be the difference. #6 Call Provision is a half-brother to four turf winners, including two which have six figure earnings, and one that was a Graded 2 turf stakes winner. Additionally, Chad Brown is 31% on turf vs. NY Breds. Must add to Pick 4 and 5. #4 Analyze Dattt face planted in turf debut but gathered himself to make a move to be in contention. Had a brutal winter on the dirt and now returns to the turf where improvement should lie.

#5 Cloontia 4/5 – Best Bet
#6 Call Provision 4/1
#4 Analyze Dattt 15/1

Race 5: Allowance, 6 Furlongs, 3YO & Up, (Dirt)
#2 Bustin The Bank returns quickly for John Toscano after career best form in a narrow loss vs. claimers last time out. Based on the numbers, should easily be the controlling speed and could save ground by riding the rail dry if asked. #1 Private Thrill comes off 3 straight 70+ Beyer figures, a 4th straight figure in that range makes him one to beat. #3 Yakov was second best to a very good horse from the Zilla Racing Stables in Swell last time out. Gave Swell all he could handle in that one. It took Swell’s best figure in that race to hold off this horse. Will be up front early and the one for the other two to catch. Would be my winner, but Swell was very underwhelming last time out.

#2 Bustin The Bank 6/5
#1 Private Thrill 5/1
#3 Yakov 9/5

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, 3YO, (Dirt)
#6 Adulator was buried on the tote board last time out at Gulfstream where I’ve always found that board to be extremely sharp. Did not perform after a double face plant start. Sneaky good Jimmy Jerkens is the trainer here. Horse supports a good pedigree and very sharp work coming in. #7 Dark as Midnight was also heavily bet last time out, but went to wide on the turn to be a factor while chasing a slow pace. Better move this time out for arguably the hottest jockey in the game right now. Must add to Pick 4 and 5. #9 Market Sentiment is half-brother to seven winners including a multiple Grade 2 winner. Aqueduct training horse has bullet works on both the inner and main track.

#6 Adulator 5/2
#7 Dark as Midnight 2/1
#9 Market Sentiment 12/1

Race 7: Plenty of Grace S., 1 Mile, 4YO & Up, (Turf)
Really find this field extremely weak/overrated/overvalued so my value play of the day goes to #1 Angel Vision returns for Dilger quickly after a game race finishing 4 lengths from the winner. The jockey/trainer combination have great statistical numbers along with a lucrative ROI. Though many find no correlation, has faced better up in class on the foreign tracks and won. Has the numbers to be there closing late. #10 Mrs. Mcdougal will be the tough horse for my value play to beat but also presents to me little margin of error to be successful. Is a Grade 2 turf winner behind a Chad Brown barn that hits at 39% with turf routers on a 100-200 day break over the last 5 years. Seems to need the perfect trip to stalk and strike. #9 Harp n Halo took wins in both of his 2015 turf races at very nice prices in both. Comes in to this one 5 for 10 on career and most of the losses have come on unsuccessful dirt attempts.

#1 Angel Vision 20/1
#10 Mrs. Mcdougal 2/1
#9 Harp n Halo 6/1

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming, 7 Furlongs, 3YO & Up, (Dirt)
#2 Uncharted Course has posted extremely impressive numbers over the last two races in improvement. If he tops those or runs to the same would be instantly a gate to wire possibility with the inside post draw. #7 Beyond the Green was a maiden winner at this spot last season. Coming into the race following his best Beyer figure to date by an impressive 10-point improvement. #4 More Zen Tea got worn out chasing a very hot pace last time out and faltered. Based on the replays, it appeared to be his best race to date. The cutback in distance should help the tire and also a different pace up front puts him into a definite contender.

#2 Uncharted Course 5/2
#7 Beyond the Green 3/1
#4 More Zen Tea 6/1

Race 9: Claiming, 1 Mile, 4YO & Up, (Turf)
Thought the finale was wide open as you can see I went 6 deep in the pick 4 and could probably have added on. With that being said what’s currently being offered in the race my lean goes to #7 China Prince who had limited success until Velasquez got on board with one of his favorite partners in David Jacobson. Since then has opened up the 2016 season with 2 wins in 4 tries. I expect the train to keep rolling here in this open race. #4 Dream Man will be the tough one for my value play to beat. Was really compromised in a slow pace last time out but did finish ITM. Should get a better pace, leading to a better trip here and will be a good price. #2 Street Shark the son of Street Sense has the ideal post position today if already not dangerous as a very good turf horse. Add #10 Foxhall Drive or #12 Live in Joy underneath the winner for Superfecta/Trifecta box of day.

#7 China Prince 8/1
#4 Dream Man 4/1
#2 Street Shark 12/1


Aqueduct, Saturday, April 2nd, 2016

2/20/16: 4 Top Pick Winners ($36.40) 4 Cold Exactas ($92.00), 1 Cold Tri ($212.50), 1 Cold Double ($39.00) 1 Pick 4 ($324.00), Best Bet ($7.90)

2/27/16: 1 Top Pick Winner ($7.50), Best Bet ($7.50) – (Multiple scratches I never got to address)

3/5/16: 3 Top Pick Winners ($38.30) 3 Cold Exactas ($66.80), 3 Cold Tri ($99.20), 1 Cold Double ($14.00), 1 Pick 4 ($356.00)

3/11/16: 4 Top Pick Winners ($43.80) 2 Cold Exactas ($62.80), 1 Cold Double ($30.20)

3/26/16: 3 Top Pick Winners ($27.20) 3 Cold Exactas ($58.40), 1 Cold Tri ($85.50), 1 Cold Double ($10.80), 1 Pick 4 ($900.00)

Quietly picking 39% winners during this meet (excluding the tournament day scratches). That’s not so bad but would like to average at least 4-5 winners a card for you though. My expertise has always been in the Pick 4,5 pools and we’ve landed at least one on 3 of 4 cards, so I am definitely happy with that. Looking forward to the Florida Derby, some very good Final Four Basketball and Opening Day of Baseball this weekend. Glad I can finally put going 5/6 on two separate tickets in the Rainbow 6 last weekend (due to gate falls none to less) behind me with the events to come. I will absolutely dabble in what should be about a million-dollar Pick 5 pool at Gulfstream (backside). I will post that play on Saturday afternoon for you if you desire to dabble with me. Dano will also have one live, hopefully we can cash not 1 but 2 for the great and dedicated website he has going. Get Hot Stay Hot.

Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $8
Race 1: 2,4
Race 2: 3
Race 3: 2,3
Race 4: 2,6
Race 5: 1,6

Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $192
Race 1: 1,2,4,5
Race 2: 2,3,4,5
Race 3: 2,3
Race 4: 2,5,6
Race 5: 1,3,4,6

Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $4
Race 2: 3
Race 3: 2,3
Race 4: 2,6
Race 5: 1,6

Early Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $48
Race 2: 2,3,4,5
Race 3: 2,3
Race 4: 2,5,6
Race 5: 1,3,4,6

Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $3
Race 7: 3
Race 8: 3
Race 9: 4,9,10
Race 10: 6,10

Late Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $60
Race 7: 1,3,4
Race 8: 3,7
Race 9: 4,6,9,10
Race 10: 1,5,6,7,10

Race 1: Videogenic S., 6 Furlongs, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
#2 Sweet on Smokey has been in best form of career since last fall. Ships in following a failed game rally to multiple graded stakes winner Lady Sabelia. Best success is when substantial pace is up front and there’s 3 here that will secure that. Though coming from a high percentage barn, I have a stat here that they are 1 for their last 11, concerning. #4 Two Step Flor and #5 Bileaps and Bounds are both going first time off the claim. One for trainer meet leader Rudy Rod, and the other for 28% winner off the claim David Jacobson. These two will be in a speed duel up front. I like Two Step Flor better as this is daughter of Two Step Salsa; proven on the dirt. If one of these tires and fades from the dual, #1 Midnight Champagne with Moochie will be there to pick up the WPS pool pieces. Should get a beautiful trip on the inside rail and has been very successful on this inner track. Hopefully no one scratches, this is my 1st Exacta/Trifecta/Superfecta box of the day.

#2 Sweet on Smokey 1/1
#4 Two Step Flor 3/1
#5 Bileaps and Bounds 5/1
#1 Midnight Champagne 6/1 – Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta Box Addition

Race 2: Kelly Kip S., 6 Furlongs, 4 YO & Up, (Dirt)
#3 Rockford is a veteran horse that is as versatile as they come. Has win or placed in the last 7 races. In those 7, there has been fast and slow pace, sloppy, good, fast tracks and he has been the pace, stalked the pace and closed the pace. Won 2 back off the claim for Repole Stable and trainer Bruce Levine who is hitting at a 24% clip at this meet, in this spot. #4 Tug of War is a bettor’s dream, winning 4 times at 7/1 or higher since the summer all on NYRA dirt surfaces. Will be a square price again in this one, cuts back in distance and comes in with a very sharp work. The pace of Rockford may end up being the horse’s own doom if Tug of War can stalk it. #5 Hector’s Pride is 2 for 2 since adding blinkers and has done it forwardly and behind. Really beat up competition last time I selected him March 5th burning the rail right down to the ground start to finish. Trainer Carlos Martin is 4 for 9 in last 30 days. Add #2 Collin’s Pride for my 2nd Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta box of the day.

#3 Rockford 8/5 – Best Bet
#4 Tug of War 6/1
#5 Hector’s Pride 9/5
#2 Collin’s Smile 5/1 – Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta Box Addition

Race 3: Xtra Heat S., 6 Furlongs, 4YO & UP, (Dirt)
#2 SweetRayOfSunshine was very un-impressive last time out. Sat in a very good stalking position but let the pace get way too far to even threaten the closing stages. However, that horse has had additional success last time out and this field is not as good. Additionally, has never finished out of the money in a 6-furlong race and enters in with 10 wins.  The stalkers partner will be #3 Stormy Sky who has won or placed in the last 4 starts and did complete a last to first victory on this surface before. Like SweetRayOfSunshine, last time out let the pace setter get away also. However, the one that got away in that one has not had additional success and that field was not as good, that’s why I gave the nod to my winner. Pick your poison for 3rd, could not make an argument for any of them. I probably should go with the pace setter but none are as impressive to not be caught. Coin flip on the 3rd stalker #1 Distinctive Lady.

#2 SweetRayOfSunshine 8/5
#3 Stormy Sky 7/5
#1 Distinctive Lady 4/1

Race 4: More to Tell S., 1 Mile, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
This race and the next will be the Pick 4 & 5 ticket breaker or builder. Tough to have statistical faith in any of these. #6 Bears Personality is in the best form of his career over the last 3 races winning by a combined 20 lengths and will look to pick up his 4th straight victory in this one. Beat my 3rd selection last time out Mr. Palmer at Parx and will make this short trip to the NYRA track. Had limited success on synthetic but the same cannot be said for the switch to dirt as his only loss was a Graded 3 stakes where he drew the worst post and face planted out of the gate. Concerned that the trainer has shown essentially 0 success at this track in his lifetime. 8% for the amount of attempts makes this race a lot harder to pick a winner then people may think.  #2 Lucky Lotto prefers inner track and two turns and draws neither in this one. Best horse in the race yes, at this spot, no. #5 Mr. Palmer returns to his home dirt, gets wanted pace and I would think gets a better trip this time. Was better in every single race before last where he had absolutely no interest when called to fire. Concerning.

#6 Bears Personality 2/1
#2 Lucky Lotto 5/2
#5 Mr. Palmer 3/1

Race 5: Peeping Tom S., 6 Furlongs, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
As stated above, this one is no easier than the previous. As you can see I went 4 & 5 deep in the pool tickets, I see a lot of possibilities here. My slight lean in this one went to #6 Beach Hut as Navarro teams up with Preciado where they have a lot of success together but like stated in the last, Preciado has no success here, can he get 1 of the 2 home for me? Should be a vicious speed duel up front which would be huge for this horse in stalking. #1 Dad’z Laugh is son of Black Mambo and has been game in last 3, all in the money. Trainer wins at a 23% clip first off the claim. Will be setting the pace and could even instead attempt to get to far away for the heavy closers behind. #4 Jeter was a huge score for me last time out around $20 for every $2 in the tournament in a hand ride, propelled me to 3rd for majority of the day. Should again be in stalking position sitting near Beach Hut. Eddie Barker looks to score back to back off the claim victory. Plus, it’s my dog’s 2nd birthday today, named, Jeter.

#6 Beach Hut 2/1
#1 Dad’z Laugh 3/1
#4 Jeter 12/1

Race 6: Mr. Sinatra S., 1 1/18 Miles, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
#2 Royal Posse almost won the Haynesfield last time out but a move way too soon IMO changed that outcome as he lost ground on not just one but both turns. On his best day would blow this field away. The rider change will only help and the bullet trainings going into this one don’t hurt either. #4 DontBetWithBruno to no surprise has made drastic improvements since being claimed by Todd Pletcher.  Topped Beyer figure 3x in a row and adds 8 pounds for this one. However, first time on the main track and the pedigree did not like it which is a concern to me. Another pick your poison spot, my slight lean goes to #5 Little Jerry who will be the one to catch but I expect him to tire and hold on for the show. Switches surfaces for Jacobson, will need to get far away and not worry about the pace behind to take this one.

#2 Royal Posse 9/5
#4 DontBetWithBruno 2/1
#5 Little Jerry 5/1

Race 7: Stud Muffin S., 1 Mile, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
#3 Toledo Eddie is my 2nd best bet of the day, unfortunately at 7/5. After a lengthy layoff won by literally a pole at Santa Anita and recorded best Beyer figure in that race at 106 vs. horses that you will absolutely see win graded stakes races going forward. David Jacobson is the trainer and hits at 36% with these horses, in this spot. #1 Second City gives me a good price after being quite impressive last race out even in losing fashion. The favorite in that race wired the field and the jockey never got into him as it was never in doubt. Would expect more speed here as this one may not be in doubt but if it ends up in same fashion, may be primed for a big play next time out. #4 African Fighter steps down in competition and the pace of this field could play right into his hand. Son of Tiznow (something I always look for) is a two-time winner in this spot and had won 3 in a row prior to the last tough race. Must add to your late pick 4 if you have money to prime the ticket.

#3 Toledo Eddie 7/5 – Best Bet (Choice 2 of the 2)
#1 Second City 8/1
#4 African Fighter 3/1

Race 8: Sis City S., 1 Mile, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
#3 Can Can Babe is another very versatile horse having won the last 3 on 3 different track conditions. Ships in from California off a layoff and should be the controlling speed of the race. Jockey is at his best on the front end so they are a match made in heaven. However, this horse must be on the front end to win after looking at race history. Too bad you can’t live bet because if the horse isn’t there, neither is the victory. #7 Darnley Bay is my statistical play of the day. Love Moochie, love him more with Domino. If the race breaks down as drawn up, should clean up the place/show pool. #1 Just Got Out broke out of the gate poorly last time out but ran great after to secure the victory. Will need the rest of the field to run Can Can Babe to exhaustion so that the close is wide open. Don’t think that happens but I do think the late kick gets on the board.

#3 Can Can Babe 4/5 – Best Bet (Choice 1 of 2)
#7 Darnley Bay 8/1
#1 Just Got Out 6/1

Race 9: Caixa Eletronica S., 7 Furlongs, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
The late Pick 4 ticket breaker lies here. #4 Eighty Three is in best form of career and should get an outstanding trip based on race breakdown. Only successful in stalking/closer position and loves to make you sweat it out late, seems to love the joy of the photo finish flash at the wire. #9 Cerro goes first off the claim for one of this meet’s sneaky best, Danny Gargan. Will be the early speed on the front end that my winner will look to catch. My concern is that there is a ton of speed in here and this horse is not successful unless clear on the front end. Danny Gargan also really excels on the front end so it’s a must. Running next to Cerro may be #10 Nubin Ridge who has sat off the pace to close with Eighty Three successfully but also sat on the front end to give Cerro a run for his money, which he has before but lost that battle. Outside post is ideal for the late close with Eighty Three but may not get that opportunity if jockey/trainer agree to much speed to sit and try and battle back late.

#4 Eighty Three 3/1
#9 Cerro 7/2
#10 Nubin Ridge 4/1

Race 10: Karakorum Elektra S., 7 Furlongs, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
My value play of the day goes to #6 Winning for Sarah who is also in best form of career, coming off career best race on March 10th. Rios and Antonucci together have a ROI of +54%. Have to ride the wave of continuous improvement here. Speed figure has gone up a full 10 points the last 3 races, EACH RACE, not total, that’s no joke. #10 Brenda’s Way fits the class position but seems to be caught all too often for me, especially at racetracks that really don’t show me all that much. Would expect the same here on the front end trying to control the speed as my value comes up and takes it down. #7 Nuffsaid Nuffsaid will be with Brenda’s way on the front end for heavy front end trainer Danny Gargan. Has no business being in the spot last race and not even sure if she has enough for this one. Very quick, but need to see more. I see a lot of possible winners here. If I have a good day and got you a good amount of money to this point, or you are live to a nice payoff in Pick 4. Add #1 Stroke Play and #5 La Inesperada to some type of Trifecta, Exacta, Superfecta Box with what I’ve already listed. Will pay very nice if the value play lands on top. 3rd Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta Box of the day if we’re cooking with straight gasoline to this point.

#6 Winning for Sarah 10/1 – Value Play of the Day
#10 Brenda’s Way 6/1
#7 Nuffsaid Nuffsaid 9/2
#1 Stroke Play 5/2 – For Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta Purposes

#5 La Inesperada 7/2 – For Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta Purposes