Aqueduct, Saturday, March 26th, 2016

2/20/16: 4 Top Pick Winners ($36.40) 4 Cold Exacta’s ($92.00), 1 Cold Tri ($212.50), 1 Cold Double ($39.00) 1 Pick 4 ($324.00), Best Bet ($7.90)

2/27/16: 1 Top Pick Winner ($7.50), Best Bet ($7.50) – (Multiple scratches I never got to address)

3/5/16: 3 Top Pick Winners ($38.30) 3 Cold Exacta’s ($66.80), 3 Cold Tri ($99.20), 1 Cold Double ($14.00), 1 Pick 4 ($356.00)

3/11/16: 4 Top Pick Winners ($43.80) 2 Cold Exacta’s ($62.80), 1 Cold Double ($30.20)

This card leaves a lot to be desired with the small fields and monster favorites. However, last time I said that there were 2 $100 horses and a few more over $30.00, so what do I know? Nothing. Get some buddies together and dabble in that monster Rainbow pick 6 mandatory payout, that will be guaranteed good advice, I can promise you that. Get Hot Stay Hot.

Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $6
Race 1: 1,2
Race 2: 1,6
Race 3: 4
Race 4: 7
Race 5: 1,5,6

Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $54
Race 1: 1,2,3,4
Race 2: 1,6,7
Race 3: 4
Race 4: 1,6,7
Race 5: 1,5,6

Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $3
Race 2: 1,6
Race 3: 4
Race 4: 7
Race 5: 1,5,6

Early Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $54
Race 2: 1,6,7
Race 3: 1,2,3,4
Race 4: 1,6,7
Race 5: 1,5,6

Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $9
Race 6: 4,7
Race 7: 2,3,5
Race 8: 4
Race 9: 3,6,9

Late Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $75
Race 6: 1/1A,4,6,7,8
Race 7: 2,3,5
Race 8: 2,4
Race 9: 1,3,4,6,9

Race 1: Allowance, 6 Furlongs, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
#1 Zippity Zoom hit highest figure of career last time out and has improved in every single race. I’ve mentioned the ROI and W% enough through my articles with Rice as trainer and Cornelio on board so I’ll leave it at that. In reality I refuse to put my money on the likes of a 9/5 morning line favorite like #2 Golden Gem who is obsessed with not cashing in when it matters. Clearly the horse to beat and has already taken care of business vs. entire field besides #4 Moondance Joy who ran a nice race last time out vs. open company. Big effort win second time off the claim and you always have to keep an eye on the Ortiz brothers on board.

#1 Zippity Zoom 5/2
#2 Golden Gem  9/5
#4 Moondance Joy 2/1

Race 2: Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile & 70 Yards, 3YO, (Dirt)
#1 Auburn Avenue drops down and ships in from “Pletcher-stream” and is a Pletcher trained horse going turf to dirt but most importantly changes to Jose Ortiz who excels in the spot change with Pletcher. Had highest speed figure of career last time out, even though it was quite low, surprisingly still better than rest of field. #6 Greyscale is only one of two in race that has not already lost for a claiming tag. Would expect this one to be coming very late. #7 Snowfly call it favoritism or call it knowledge on watching your favorite. Moochie always seems to find these weak spots to grab the race when unexpected and Pino is having a sneaky good meet also. Would expect the same here, if not will clip a piece of your show pool.

#1 Auburn Avenue 7/5
#6 Greyscale 5/2
#7 Snowfly 8/1

Race 3: Cicada S., 6 Furlongs, 3YO, (Dirt)
I’m sorry but if this is all you can come up with for a field, don’t run the race… rant over. #4 Constellation will absolutely embarrass and bury the other 3 horses, yes I said 3. 10 length winner at odds of 1/1,000 last time out and will be the same here. Highest everything in field, not worth listing. #1 Takrees has improved each race with Kiaran training and Moochie on board. Will need best race of career and my 3rd selection #3 Lost Raven to absolutely run Constellation into exhaustion to have any shot. As for Lost Raven, the cutback will help. For the superfecta add in the #2 Anydayismyday, oh wait….I  guess the rant wasn’t over.

#4 Constellation 1/1,000 – Best Bet
#1 Takrees 6/1
#3 Lost Raven 10/1

Race 4: Claiming, 1 & 1/16 Miles, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
#7 Day of Fury like Golden Gem earlier in card, best horse of the race but hasn’t been successful lately. I contribute this one’s at least to some bad luck. Destroyed field 3 months ago, then caught slop, then moved to California where things did not go well. Takes massive drop and returns to NY. Has beaten better, has faced better in losses and is back on dirt of success. Had highest training of day heading into this race. Jose Ortiz may be 4 for 4 at this point, rolling double? #1 Hurry Up Alan was game after chasing wide first time out and just barely ran out of gas when needed most. Would expect a much better and different trip here and more out of this horse then what was already shown first time out. #6 Divine Child will be the horse I have my eyes on here. Have had him in many of the analysis for Dano this year, has yet to not be in a race with Unstoppable U this meet. If you haven’t been following he’s at least 4 for 4 if not better. He’s not in this one so let’s see what this horse has as the speed figures have been good in defeat. The #3 in here will also appreciate Unstoppable U being sidelined. Mack Miller was one of my favorite pregame rappers, wish I could have found some involvement for this one, but not sure he even makes it out of the gate.

#7 Day of Fury 3/5
#1 Hurry Up Alan 8/1
#6 Divine Child 4/1

Race 5: Claiming, 6 Furlongs, 4YO & UP, (Dirt)
Most competitive race on the card and will be looking forward to it after more chalk then I will buy for my future children. My tiniest of all leans goes to #5 Norm The Giant who has competed with and been at an equal level of my 3 picks in this one (all coming out of the same race), which are all better than the rest.  Takes a big drop in class, comes off a game try and will get that jockey back to back. Trainer/Jockey have a very good statistical ROI. #1 Overcontrol seems to be stuck in the same race setup as the March 5th contest. Lone pace of the race in a small field with a long shot in the #2 that will make him burn the pace and Norm the Giant catches him again. Really at a disadvantage to begin the race, maybe if the field was bigger Norm the Giant has to fight through traffic, but 6 deep isn’t going to help any pace setter with a burner on top and a clear pick your path behind. #6 Ideal Quality like stated about same pace and race setup leads to same results. Does get Gabriel Saez back on board this time though where success has been in the past. The field size and odds are a shame because these 3 are much better than the rest, but what’s the trifecta return $21.00?

#5 Norm The Giant 5/2
#1 Overcontrol 8/5
#6 Ideal Quality 9/5

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, 3YO, (Dirt)
#4 Hot Squad coming off a very strong effort less than 30 days ago. Lone speed of the race with Stevie and Moochie, take it to the bank. #7 At Guard sat on the lead early until the turn when there was some first timer struggles, put in another fight shortly after the fall but didn’t follow the ask. Parx has never really impressed me so not sure about that field yet and this barn has very minimal success this meet. Merely an improvement facture and lack of other options with a race under belt. #6 City Traveler has be by far the best of entries in terms of several bullet workouts, so merely going off of that. As always, watch the tote, paddock and post parade with first timers. This will be the one to mess up your pick 5 and 6.

#4 Hot Squad 5/2
#7 At Guard 2/1
#6 City Traveler 8/1

Race 7: Claiming, 1 Mile, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
#4 Hunt Road’s set the pace and nearly gate to wired the field last time out before tiring and giving up the lead right before the finish. Would expect the same here except I expect the gate to wire to be completed. That last effort was very sharp, gains experience and the quick comeback for Pletcher leads me to believe he is more than capable and ready here. #5 Persuasive Devil is my statistical pick of the day. Second start off a layoff vs. better for a barn that is 10 of 11 in the money on dirt this meet. #2 Mr. Canada don’t think he is tough enough yet on the stretch to make the full close, possible yes but not yet for me, either way, show money should be in grasp.

#4 Hunt’s Road 2/1
#5 Persuasive Devil 5/2
#2 Mr. Canada 5/1

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs, 4YO & UP, (Dirt)
#4 Geaux Mets faced better when pulling up for second last time out. Race before hit for a big time purse, looks to rebound from the no game effort last time out for the leading barn at this meet. Seems like well and beyond the class of the race. #2 Uncharted Course comes off his best effort and fastest performance of career and Englehart responds with automatically placing vs. tougher. Leads me to believe this has been seen before and was expected. Must be ready, in form and live. #6 Bass River Road like uncharted course posted top Beyer figure of career of a claim in quite a layoff. Slightly concerned here the layoff left the horse so fresh and super live there so the quick return forces a setback here. Don’t see any other options vs. a very solid favorite so rolling with it.

#4 Geaux Mets 9/5 – Best Bet
#2 Uncharted Course 5/2
#6 Bass River Road 2/1

Race 9: Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs, 3YO & UP, (Dirt)
#6 Double Mane heading into this race with just 10 days off which is always a positive sign to me. Was game in that race also, not lackluster, got closed out and still caught some of the money. Faced much tougher in the last 3 compared to these state breeds. Will be one of my biggest plays of the day if the current favorite keeps taking the money. #9 Lil Renegade after a long layoff faced a tough trip and could not prevail. Then came back after another lengthy layoff to a better trip but not enough for first. Returns this time after 6 weeks, why should I expect any different than this spot? Most vulnerable favorite of day.  #3 Naughty Grace had top number of career last time out which rates better than all but Double Mane and the pickings are slim for third. This would be the 15th time without a victory, is 15 the charm?

#6 Double Mane 7/2
#9 Lil Renegade 7/5
#3 Naughty Grace


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