Aqueduct, Saturday, March 12th, 2016

2/20/16: 4 Top Pick Winners ($36.40) 4 Cold Exactas ($92.00), 1 Cold Tri ($212.50), 1 Cold Double ($39.00) 1 Pick 4 ($324.00), Best Bet ($7.90)

2/27/16: 1 Top Pick Winner ($7.50), Best Bet ($7.50) – (Multiple scratches I never got to address)

3/5/16: 3 Top Pick Winners ($38.30) 3 Cold Exactas ($66.80), 3 Cold Tri ($99.20), 1 Cold Double ($14.00), 1 Pick 4 ($356.00)

I wish everyone a Happy March Madness Holiday. My favorite 4 days of the year next Thursday-Sunday and when they end you know spring is right around the corner with the likes of my two favorite tracks Monmouth Park and Belmont. I wish everyone the best of luck to their university and brackets. Let’s Go Duke…. Get Hot Stay Hot!

Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $360
Race 1: 1,2,4,6,7
Race 2: 2,5,6
Race 3: 3,4,5,7
Race 4: 2,5,6,8
Race 5: 1,4,6

Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $48
Race 1: 1,2,4,6,7
Race 2: 2,6
Race 3: 3,4
Race 4: 2,8
Race 5: 1,4,6

Early Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $72
Race 2: 2,5,6
Race 3: 3,4,5,7
Race 4: 2,4,6,8
Race 5: 1,4,6

Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $12
Race 2: 2,6
Race 3: 3.4
Race 4: 2,8
Race 5: 1,4,6

Late Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $200
Race 6: 4,6,10,11,12
Race 7: 2,3,6,7,8
Race 8: 3,6,9,10
Race 9: 1,2,3,4

Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $4
Race 6: 4,10
Race 7: 3
Race 8: 9
Race 9: 1,2,3,4

Race 1: Claiming, 3YO, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Have to go with the chalk early #1 The Great Whiteway has beaten just about the entire field already and all multiple times. Has proved versatility as he can set the pace or sit off it and close. Has also proved that the inside post is a non-issue. Jockey/Trainer have a very nice ROI together over the last 30 days. #2 No Entiendo took second to my winner last time out and the same outcome the time before that, both by 3+ lengths. Went wide on a soft pace but also lost on a hot pace the time before that. Can’t see why this outcome would be any different. #4 The Silver Sniper has very good numbers the last few races but this barn hits at a very low percentage off layoffs 60+ days which is the layoff that this one is coming off of. If that figure could be overcome, has the better speed figures to take these.

#1 The Great Whiteway 8/5
#2 No Entiendo 7/2
#4 The Silver Sniper 4/1

Race 2: Claiming, 4YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
My main man Moochie did me dirty on last week’s picks and analysis, but one never loses faith in their favorite jockey, so we go right back to him on #6 Storm Pursuit here who is going after a 4th straight victory. Like my winner in the previous race; has shown a ton of versatility sitting off the slow pace and also closing the hot one. Moochie and Englehart have also had a sneaky successful winter meet. #2 War Academy drops off the claim for Rudy Rod, a.k.a this horse will be involved. If the price is there, could be a very nice exacta box as I think this will be a 2 horse race only. I don’t think I need to waste time listing Rudy’s stats this meet or the ROI and success with Jose Ortiz combined and Ortiz’s success this meet either, just know they are very good. #7 Non Stop goes off the Greg Sacco claim after running to expectation last time out. However, the numbers Sacco offers with dirt sprinters off the claim are absolutely terrible. The outside post gives the mere opportunity for perfect stalking position.

#6 Storm Pursuit 2/1
#2 War Academy 3/1
#7 Non Stop 6/1

Race 3: Allowance, 4YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Back to Back with Moochie as I go to #3 Hey Bro. Trainer Danny Gargan is second to only Rudy Rod on absolutely cleaning up at this meet. The combination with Moochie Man presents and outstanding ROI. I really liked the effort out of this horse also on February 12th, think she is rounding back into shape and should improve even more here. Hot pace up front gives opportunity for a one run close. What a price. #4 Knuckle Curve has failed to put together back to back quality starts. Is elite in a hand ride and then follows that up in a really poor effort continuously. Last effort was elite so this would seem to be the fall. For the paddock pick believers, this may be one to look at. Competition is much weaker then he’s faced previously, workouts have been very good and the jockey switch will only help. All positive signs to a possible elite back to back one time. #5 Waymond Boyd did not fare very well in California for Bob Baffert but now makes the trip back to local territory and barn in New York with a new owner and trainer. I have to expect better off the long layoff.

#3 Hey Bro 10/1
#4 Knuckle Curve 2/1
#5 Waymond Boyd 3/1

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight, 3YO, 1 Mile & 70 Yards, (Dirt)
#2 Big Gillette will take one of my two best bet selections on the day. Though having lost 3 times while taking money, all were a 2nd place finish by narrow margin. If you look forward, the winner in each of those races has gone on to win at least once, including a Grade 1 Stakes. Additionally, in each race the speed continues to get better. Would think those numbers would be superior to the rest of this field and the family isn’t too shabby either, not sure if you have ever heard of the horse Big Brown? Will try and get out right out front early and often. #5 Dixie Runner ships over from Florida after improving in every single race run. Moves even more forward with the best trainings of his career over the last 3. Last time out took second to another horse you may know, Mo Power. Would have to think that he will also try to go right to the front early and make it a race of whoever wins the pace dual. #7 Greyscale comes with my second shocking price of the day at 12/1. Was game vs a tough field of maidens last time out when the rail was the place to be and he was nowhere near it. Has to be fresh and live, think the other two are better but if you had the money may not be a bad idea to add to Pick 4/5 at this price.

#2 Big Gillette 5/2 – (Best Bet 1)
#5 Dixie Runner 2/1
#7 Greyscale 12/1

Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming, 4YO & Up, 1 Mile & 70 Yards, (Dirt)#1 Send It in nearly collected 5 straight wins but was second best to a photo. The NY bred has been successful on all 4 NYRA dirt racetracks. Last time out was easily not his best performance so that is a bit of a scare going forward, however was still enough to win the race. Pletcher rarely fails at picking the right spot and Franco loves being ITM. #6 Leave The Light On looks to be the lone pace setter and front speed of the race. Will look to get a solid lead over the closers and gate to wire this field. Will have to hold off Send It in as the closing speed fractions have been more impressive then this one’s pace speed fractions. #4 Farhaan 1 of 2 Olsen statistical plays of the day. Trainer with Jockey ROI, Trainer with Jockey ITM, Trainer with Jockey W%.

#1 Send It In 5/2
#6 Leave The Light On 2/1
#4 Farhaan 8/1

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 3YO, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Tough race with so many first time starters, watch the tote, keep an eye on the post parade. With all that being said, I will go with #4 Timber as my 2 of 2 Olsen statistical plays of the day. Franco and Orseno together are +140% ROI. Additionally, Dam 1st timers have a 100% winning percentage. Adds Lasix. Not a Best Bet, but I like it A LOT. #10 Saratoga Charlie is one of the non-first time starters. Was game last time out and had a recent bullet workout where he finished 3rd on the day. #6 Jet Black 3rd place key for me a few picks and analysis ago. Continues to go to the front to set pace but gets caught each time late. Has hung on for 3rd 3 out of 4 times. Will expect the same here with MOOCHIE.

#4 Timber 12/1
#10 Saratoga Charlie 7/2
#6 Jet Black 3/1

Race 7: Starter Allowance, 4YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Dirt)
Hardest Race on the card IMO. #3 Pass The Dice drops from a very good starter allowance field in which he lost to Lucky Lotto who is an outstanding inner track horse. Almost made him another one of my best bets, but I don’t see a very hot pace up front and I think that will hurt here as he will have to control the front solo instead of stalk. Still think he’s better than the rest but would not be so surprised if flattening again. #7 This Hard Land may end up becoming a very dangerous late running closer due to no horse knowing how to set the pace up front. As of now, has seen better than this last time out, but unsure as not all have come back yet. I really like the price for what may end up being a gift of a race setup. #8 Tug of War is coming off a win last time out for another barn that is quietly having a very good meet. Last time out was best race of career. This one also plays into how I view the race breaking down, if no pace is up front, will be on the close with the #7, If I am wrong about race setup, my selections will be a wash for sure.

#3 Pass The Dice 5/2
#7 This Hard Land 15/1
#8 Tug of War 6/1

Race 8: Tom Fool H. (Grade III), 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#9 Salutos Amigos gets my checkmark for my second best bet of the day. 3 for 3 on this inner track in graded stakes here last season for trainer David Jacobson. Will like getting back here as he is 0-8 on other surfaces in the same position. Won’t see him early, look for a heavy close late. #2 Angry Moon will be the one to catch with Moochie on board. Steps slightly up in class from optional claimers, is undefeated with Moochie on and is very dangerous when getting the lead early solo. In those 6 solo leads, 5 wins and 1 place. Easier to go up front solo vs. less competition, don’t think that happens here. Still wins pace dual vs my next selection but does not hold close. #11 Loki’s Vengeance will be up front with Angry Moon with an ideal post to meet him in the middle on the front. Trainer has a nice ROI and ITM with horses off 100-200 day layoff at 23%. Trifecta, Exacta and Superfecta box of the day. Add Dad’s Caps to complete the boxes.

#9 Salutos Amigos 2/1
#2 Angry Moon 12/1
#11 Loki’s Vengeance 20/1
#5 Dad’s Capa 4/1 – Ex,Tri,Super box only.

Race 9: Claiming, 4YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#3 Regulus re-claimed by Rudy Rod, probably at a good time to for any horse at this meet. Last race was on the mud so throw it out with a beautiful day tomorrow. Last workout on dry was an absolute bullet. Takes a slight drop in class and will be the late closer of the race. 1/1A Entry like the #1 Frazil a lot more than the 1A entry who is lacking speed so keep an eye on any pull out one. Should be up front competing for the pace dual with #4 Perfect Disco who was a game second last time out to a horse that has gone on to win twice since then.

#3 Regulus 3/1
#1/1A 9/2
#4 Perfect Disco 12/1


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