Aqueduct, Saturday, March 5th, 2016

First off, a lot of people have been sending me direct messages in regards to my record at the meet for Dan. I have written analysis for my man Dan at different tracks, but will just give results of this Aqueduct meet starting 2 weeks ago and will continue it until the end  of the meet and then restart if a new track comes my way by Dan’s request. All $2 mythical plays, besides Pick 4/5/6 which cost is listed. A lot easier to provide via here than each message. Last but not least, if you have a question, reach out to me. I have no problem lending a hand, I want us all to go out winners, waiting until after the race doesn’t offer me the opportunity to help. Get Hot Stay Hot!

2/20/16: 4 Top Pick Winners ($36.40) 4 Cold Exacta’s ($92.00), 1 Cold Tri ($212.50), 1 Cold Double ($39.00) 1 Pick 4 ($324.00), Best Bet ($7.90)

2/27/16: 1 Top Pick Winner ($7.50), Best Bet ($7.50) – (Multiple scratches I never got to address)

.50 Cent Pick 5 (Race 1 – Race 5) – $160
Race 1: 1,2,4,5,6
Race 2: 6
Race 3: 1,4,6,7
Race 4: 3,4,5,7
Race 5: 2,3,4,6

.50 Cent Early Pick 4 (Race 2 – Race 5) – $96
Race 2: 1,6,7
Race 3: 1,4,6,7
Race 4: 3,4,5,7
Race 5: 2,3,4,6

.50 Cent Late Pick 4 (Race 7-Race 10) – $200 – I NEVER go this high, but think this sequence is worth it.
Race 7: 2,3,5,6
Race 8: 2,5,7,9,10
Race 9: 2,3,6,7,8
Race 10: 1,2,3,4

Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 3YO, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#3 Oashaar was game in debut only finishing behind an always dangerous Linda Rice 1st timer after breaking bad from the gate. Based on connections would have to believe she is ready for step up and should improve on a valuable experience race and clean start. #4 Ussery’s Alley showed great speed in which when all said and done was the strongest Maiden Special Weight race in the entire meet at Saratoga this summer. Came off layoff last race at Gulfstream and was bumped on inside and then also outside at the start and never could get in contention. If she races back to debut will be the speed of the race and could score. #6 Joy Drive as stated above, this is a first timer for Linda Rica barn making her dangerous. Purchased for 400k with connection to Quality Road whose progeny wins at 12% clip in debut. Based on February 20th run, still Ussery’s Alley has the better speed.

#3 Oashaar 3/1
#4 Ussery’s Alley 6/1
#6 Joy Drive 2/1

Race 2: Claiming, 4YO & Up, 1 Mile & 70 Yard, (Dirt)
#6 Unstoppable U has had a plethora of trainer changes but has held form all along. Has won last 3 straight while fighting off outstanding pace speed in the last two, and has also won 4 of the last 5. Is the speed in the race and clearly the one to beat. #2 Now We Are Free last race out was a step up in class and did not have enough to complete the close. Even with the drop to where he was a winner two back, think it will be just as tough of a time closing my winner. #7 Ground Control is claimed by the only heat and fire you feel at Aqueduct this time of year, Rudy Rod. Stretches out in distance, off a lengthy layoff after a lackluster performance last time. Will add to my virtual stable if performance is better than last, but have to see it first.

#6 Unstoppable U 2/1
#2 Now We Are Free 7/2
#7 Ground Control 5/2

Race 3: Maiden Special Weight, 3YO, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#4 Five Star Rampage is also a Quality Road filly and from the Grade 1 winners Tiznow/Budroyale family. Has had outstanding works while in Florida for trainer Jimmy Jerkens that would blow the rest of the field away if transferred to this NY field. #1 Candy Counter would be my grandmother’s choice without a doubt if we were at the track live, so have to give it some play after all the outstanding chicken parmigiana she has given back to me. Had a tough stumble stricken debut, but does add Lasix here. Need to see her twice before a decision is made. #2 Naked Express ran well following a stumble on the rail last time out vs a field that has showed success following their debuts. Switches to this meet’s leading rider and the connections have showed success in second time starts.

#4 Five Star Rampage 5/2
#1 Candy Counter 9/5
#2 Naked Express 7/2

Race 4: Claiming, 4YO & UP, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#7 Spearhead won only race with Jamie Rodriquez on board and then has had several jockey and distance changes outside of the only jockey and distance where he was winner. Also finished 2nd at this meet vs better, last time out stumbled out of gate and then was checked on stretch leading to a book deceiving 8th. Was 2nd on the day in a recent bullet work, so I would have to think this horse is live right now and is also dropping in distance to proven success. I always keep a keen eye on when a jockey wins then comes off horse and after success decimates the return of that jockey and distance at same time. You get that here. #8 Bensational was up vs. a heavy pace after stumbling last time out and really had no shot to gain that ground back with what was happening in front. My concern was that the jockey chose not to go 3 wide when it was open to get back into it, can’t tell me he knew that there was no horse left. The answer to that is maybe that’s the reason for the jockey change as he does get a better one here. During the lengthy layoff, has showed much better speed in training then the last two races. #4 Memory Keeper does have great early speed and has improved while looking to go gate to wire in this one. Won last time out in that fashion but if you look at the horses in that race, very un-impressive. There is better here, and I need to something outside of a free pick your path rides vs no competition to put any money on him.

#7 Spearhead 12/1
#8 Bensational 3/1
#4 Memory Keeper 5/1

Race 5: Claiming, 4YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#4 Dance Champion has faced tougher competition multiple times then any single horse in this race and drops in price again. With that being said, jockey/trainer need to figure out if he’s going to sit on pace or close. Sometimes he’s raced to front, sometimes he sits in the middle and goes up early to try and re-create the pace. Can’t change horse’s mentality each race and expect him to be successful. Recent workouts have been very good compared to this field, if the experience of facing better from previous races wasn’t enough already. May even be able to get away with finding the horses spot in this one and still win. #6 Marble Falls will be out front early and the horse that Dance Champion will be looking to close if rode correctly this time out. Don’t see another horse that keeps this one from getting to the front clear early. #2 Because He Can has finished game in the last two races including a 2nd place finish to 10-time winner Cho Time last time out. Will be in stalking position with Dance Champion and if this one gets better path and or Dance Champion fails to make a decision again on type of ride, could complete a successful close.

#4 Dance Champion 5/2
#6 Marble Falls 4/1
#2 Because He Can 3/1

Race 6: Claiming, 4YO & Up, 1 Mile & 70 Yards, (Dirt)
My winner is essentially the same horse as Dance Champion and Race 6 is the same race makeup as the 5th. #8 Casiguapo has faced much better competition, has the best speed and class ratings and if he races anything back to his previous races he is the best horse in the race. Takes a massive class drop. I’m sorry but I will always go with the horses that have faced much better and been competitive in those races than the rest of the field. #7 Coaches Challenge went gate to wire in October in his only career race like this. Will look to get out front and clear early again, but an additional stretch out in distance may be too much. #2 Summit Moon will be the other horse that would like to get out of the gate early and clear. I would think that the #2 post position will help greatly in saving ground and make it easier to get out. Need to see the horse finish first and he has been caught in the same spot. I would guess that the ML maker agrees with me as 8/1 is quite high for a horse with equally the same talent as Coaches Challenge who opens at 5/2.

#8 Casiguapo 3/1
#7 Coaches Challenge 5/2
#2 Summit Moon 8/1

Race 7: Heavenly Prize Invitational S., 4YO & Up, 1 & 1/16 Miles, (Dirt)
#2 Mei Ling is the lone speed horse of the race and will look to get out clear early and set the pace. The 2 post position will only help in that matter. Last bullet workout leads me to believe she is also more live than any other horse in this race, while also dropping 6 pounds. Ortiz and Pletcher have outstanding connection percentages together. Pletcher makes the move to this spot from Laurel. Usually that bothers me but the horse has shown success at multiple tracks. #6 Cali Star is daughter to Street Cry. Will look to beat Mei Ling to the front end and take it gate to wire. I think Mei Ling with the ideal post position beats Irad to the spot which translates into a 2-way dual up front that Cali Star losses. I must say I am absolutely shocked this horse is 8/5. May be the most beatable favorite I have ever seen. #3 House Rules failed to match up vs better competition then this, having to go up against the likes of 1 of my 3 favorite horses ever Wedding Toast, and also Breeders Cup Distaff winner, StopChargingMaria. With that being said, though they are much better it’s not like she was competitive in those races where I say she faced that much better and was second best. Has been successful after all 3 layoffs, should be involved.

#2 Mei Ling 8/1
#6 Cali Star 8/5
#3 House Rules 4/1

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming, 4YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#5 True Bet is my best bet of the day. When facing similar was forced to go to the lead early the last two times out due to lack of speed and faltered late and that is not his game. The paces he set were absolutely ridiculous so the faltering is actually understandable. The pace speed is there in this race so he now will sit off the pace and pounce full of speed instead of having exhausted it all up front. #4 The Big Deluxe has one of the top speed figures in this race. Will compete with the pace up front which may lead to a falter, however I expect him to be the last hanging around up front after being closed. Would not be surprised if he was not in top 3 after what I think will be quite an upfront battle, which is why I like True Bet so much. #10 Curious Cal returns off a layoff where he has shown success in the past and will be with True Bet to close down this fast pace. The trainer also has a ton of success in this spot off layoffs. Though True Bet is my best bet of the day, if he gets the better path, Love the price to be the closer over True Bet. This is also my Trifecta, Superfecta and Exacta box of the day, Throw in #7 Gypsum Johnny as the 4th.

Best Bet, Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta Box of the Day.
#5 True Bet 8/1 – Best Bet
#4 The Big Deluxe 5/2
#10 Curious Cal 15/1
#7 Gypsum Johnny 7/2

Race 9: Gotham S. (Grade III), 3YO, 1 & 1/16 Miles, (Dirt)
#3 Adventist despite having the toughest trip of any horse in the Withers last time out after stumbling out of the gate and then having to go 3-4 wide, still posted great speed figures. Has made great moves closing late and would have to think even more improvement is shown here. Additionally, to no one’s surprise who reads my articles weekly, don’t love anymore more than Lezcano and MOOOCHIE! Get Hot Stay Hot. #2 Shagaf will show us what the deal is today. Had a great debut but then took a step back last time out vs. not the most impressive of competition. First time taking a stab at two turns but the pedigree shouldn’t make that all too hard. Would be shocked if the very successful and talented combination of Irad and Brown haven’t had a successful plan for some time now, on Irad’s dirt; but will that be enough? #7 Sunny Ridge has one of the best speed figures among this and has shown he likes this surface winning 2 of the last 4. Franco grabbed the last winner and will hop right back on here. That winner came on this surface after shipping in, so the track is a non-issue also.

#3 Adventist 4/1
#2 Shagaf 3/1
#7 Sunny Ridge 7/2

Race 10: Claiming, 4YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#1 Thnxtomyuncle a Ryne Olsen statistical play always has to come up at least once on a card, I am glad this one arises at 12/1, though I see more like 5/1 at post. Plain and Simple, look up ROI with Saez and Sciacca teamed up together in this spot, WOW. Additionally, highest earning in entire race. #4 Bustin the Bank is the one to beat. Won first time off the claim last time out and earned a speed figure in that race that is a vast margin better to the rest of this field. With that being said, the field was weak and he got the perfect trip a horse could ask for. The barn is having a sneaky good meet. Over 17 years of handicapping, the last race of every card always seems like a non-favorite winner, I’ll stick to that trend here. #6 Saint Joseph will be the one to catch out front early. Comes off a layoff for a near barn and also takes a drop in class vs. a weaker field then this. Not sure if the setup of the race lets him go gate to wire or hold this field.

#1 Thnxtomyuncle 12/1
#4 Bustin the Bank 2/1
#6 Saint Joseph 4/1


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