Aqueduct, Saturday, March 26th, 2016

2/20/16: 4 Top Pick Winners ($36.40) 4 Cold Exacta’s ($92.00), 1 Cold Tri ($212.50), 1 Cold Double ($39.00) 1 Pick 4 ($324.00), Best Bet ($7.90)

2/27/16: 1 Top Pick Winner ($7.50), Best Bet ($7.50) – (Multiple scratches I never got to address)

3/5/16: 3 Top Pick Winners ($38.30) 3 Cold Exacta’s ($66.80), 3 Cold Tri ($99.20), 1 Cold Double ($14.00), 1 Pick 4 ($356.00)

3/11/16: 4 Top Pick Winners ($43.80) 2 Cold Exacta’s ($62.80), 1 Cold Double ($30.20)

This card leaves a lot to be desired with the small fields and monster favorites. However, last time I said that there were 2 $100 horses and a few more over $30.00, so what do I know? Nothing. Get some buddies together and dabble in that monster Rainbow pick 6 mandatory payout, that will be guaranteed good advice, I can promise you that. Get Hot Stay Hot.

Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $6
Race 1: 1,2
Race 2: 1,6
Race 3: 4
Race 4: 7
Race 5: 1,5,6

Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $54
Race 1: 1,2,3,4
Race 2: 1,6,7
Race 3: 4
Race 4: 1,6,7
Race 5: 1,5,6

Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $3
Race 2: 1,6
Race 3: 4
Race 4: 7
Race 5: 1,5,6

Early Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $54
Race 2: 1,6,7
Race 3: 1,2,3,4
Race 4: 1,6,7
Race 5: 1,5,6

Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $9
Race 6: 4,7
Race 7: 2,3,5
Race 8: 4
Race 9: 3,6,9

Late Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $75
Race 6: 1/1A,4,6,7,8
Race 7: 2,3,5
Race 8: 2,4
Race 9: 1,3,4,6,9

Race 1: Allowance, 6 Furlongs, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
#1 Zippity Zoom hit highest figure of career last time out and has improved in every single race. I’ve mentioned the ROI and W% enough through my articles with Rice as trainer and Cornelio on board so I’ll leave it at that. In reality I refuse to put my money on the likes of a 9/5 morning line favorite like #2 Golden Gem who is obsessed with not cashing in when it matters. Clearly the horse to beat and has already taken care of business vs. entire field besides #4 Moondance Joy who ran a nice race last time out vs. open company. Big effort win second time off the claim and you always have to keep an eye on the Ortiz brothers on board.

#1 Zippity Zoom 5/2
#2 Golden Gem  9/5
#4 Moondance Joy 2/1

Race 2: Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile & 70 Yards, 3YO, (Dirt)
#1 Auburn Avenue drops down and ships in from “Pletcher-stream” and is a Pletcher trained horse going turf to dirt but most importantly changes to Jose Ortiz who excels in the spot change with Pletcher. Had highest speed figure of career last time out, even though it was quite low, surprisingly still better than rest of field. #6 Greyscale is only one of two in race that has not already lost for a claiming tag. Would expect this one to be coming very late. #7 Snowfly call it favoritism or call it knowledge on watching your favorite. Moochie always seems to find these weak spots to grab the race when unexpected and Pino is having a sneaky good meet also. Would expect the same here, if not will clip a piece of your show pool.

#1 Auburn Avenue 7/5
#6 Greyscale 5/2
#7 Snowfly 8/1

Race 3: Cicada S., 6 Furlongs, 3YO, (Dirt)
I’m sorry but if this is all you can come up with for a field, don’t run the race… rant over. #4 Constellation will absolutely embarrass and bury the other 3 horses, yes I said 3. 10 length winner at odds of 1/1,000 last time out and will be the same here. Highest everything in field, not worth listing. #1 Takrees has improved each race with Kiaran training and Moochie on board. Will need best race of career and my 3rd selection #3 Lost Raven to absolutely run Constellation into exhaustion to have any shot. As for Lost Raven, the cutback will help. For the superfecta add in the #2 Anydayismyday, oh wait….I  guess the rant wasn’t over.

#4 Constellation 1/1,000 – Best Bet
#1 Takrees 6/1
#3 Lost Raven 10/1

Race 4: Claiming, 1 & 1/16 Miles, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
#7 Day of Fury like Golden Gem earlier in card, best horse of the race but hasn’t been successful lately. I contribute this one’s at least to some bad luck. Destroyed field 3 months ago, then caught slop, then moved to California where things did not go well. Takes massive drop and returns to NY. Has beaten better, has faced better in losses and is back on dirt of success. Had highest training of day heading into this race. Jose Ortiz may be 4 for 4 at this point, rolling double? #1 Hurry Up Alan was game after chasing wide first time out and just barely ran out of gas when needed most. Would expect a much better and different trip here and more out of this horse then what was already shown first time out. #6 Divine Child will be the horse I have my eyes on here. Have had him in many of the analysis for Dano this year, has yet to not be in a race with Unstoppable U this meet. If you haven’t been following he’s at least 4 for 4 if not better. He’s not in this one so let’s see what this horse has as the speed figures have been good in defeat. The #3 in here will also appreciate Unstoppable U being sidelined. Mack Miller was one of my favorite pregame rappers, wish I could have found some involvement for this one, but not sure he even makes it out of the gate.

#7 Day of Fury 3/5
#1 Hurry Up Alan 8/1
#6 Divine Child 4/1

Race 5: Claiming, 6 Furlongs, 4YO & UP, (Dirt)
Most competitive race on the card and will be looking forward to it after more chalk then I will buy for my future children. My tiniest of all leans goes to #5 Norm The Giant who has competed with and been at an equal level of my 3 picks in this one (all coming out of the same race), which are all better than the rest.  Takes a big drop in class, comes off a game try and will get that jockey back to back. Trainer/Jockey have a very good statistical ROI. #1 Overcontrol seems to be stuck in the same race setup as the March 5th contest. Lone pace of the race in a small field with a long shot in the #2 that will make him burn the pace and Norm the Giant catches him again. Really at a disadvantage to begin the race, maybe if the field was bigger Norm the Giant has to fight through traffic, but 6 deep isn’t going to help any pace setter with a burner on top and a clear pick your path behind. #6 Ideal Quality like stated about same pace and race setup leads to same results. Does get Gabriel Saez back on board this time though where success has been in the past. The field size and odds are a shame because these 3 are much better than the rest, but what’s the trifecta return $21.00?

#5 Norm The Giant 5/2
#1 Overcontrol 8/5
#6 Ideal Quality 9/5

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, 3YO, (Dirt)
#4 Hot Squad coming off a very strong effort less than 30 days ago. Lone speed of the race with Stevie and Moochie, take it to the bank. #7 At Guard sat on the lead early until the turn when there was some first timer struggles, put in another fight shortly after the fall but didn’t follow the ask. Parx has never really impressed me so not sure about that field yet and this barn has very minimal success this meet. Merely an improvement facture and lack of other options with a race under belt. #6 City Traveler has be by far the best of entries in terms of several bullet workouts, so merely going off of that. As always, watch the tote, paddock and post parade with first timers. This will be the one to mess up your pick 5 and 6.

#4 Hot Squad 5/2
#7 At Guard 2/1
#6 City Traveler 8/1

Race 7: Claiming, 1 Mile, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
#4 Hunt Road’s set the pace and nearly gate to wired the field last time out before tiring and giving up the lead right before the finish. Would expect the same here except I expect the gate to wire to be completed. That last effort was very sharp, gains experience and the quick comeback for Pletcher leads me to believe he is more than capable and ready here. #5 Persuasive Devil is my statistical pick of the day. Second start off a layoff vs. better for a barn that is 10 of 11 in the money on dirt this meet. #2 Mr. Canada don’t think he is tough enough yet on the stretch to make the full close, possible yes but not yet for me, either way, show money should be in grasp.

#4 Hunt’s Road 2/1
#5 Persuasive Devil 5/2
#2 Mr. Canada 5/1

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs, 4YO & UP, (Dirt)
#4 Geaux Mets faced better when pulling up for second last time out. Race before hit for a big time purse, looks to rebound from the no game effort last time out for the leading barn at this meet. Seems like well and beyond the class of the race. #2 Uncharted Course comes off his best effort and fastest performance of career and Englehart responds with automatically placing vs. tougher. Leads me to believe this has been seen before and was expected. Must be ready, in form and live. #6 Bass River Road like uncharted course posted top Beyer figure of career of a claim in quite a layoff. Slightly concerned here the layoff left the horse so fresh and super live there so the quick return forces a setback here. Don’t see any other options vs. a very solid favorite so rolling with it.

#4 Geaux Mets 9/5 – Best Bet
#2 Uncharted Course 5/2
#6 Bass River Road 2/1

Race 9: Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs, 3YO & UP, (Dirt)
#6 Double Mane heading into this race with just 10 days off which is always a positive sign to me. Was game in that race also, not lackluster, got closed out and still caught some of the money. Faced much tougher in the last 3 compared to these state breeds. Will be one of my biggest plays of the day if the current favorite keeps taking the money. #9 Lil Renegade after a long layoff faced a tough trip and could not prevail. Then came back after another lengthy layoff to a better trip but not enough for first. Returns this time after 6 weeks, why should I expect any different than this spot? Most vulnerable favorite of day.  #3 Naughty Grace had top number of career last time out which rates better than all but Double Mane and the pickings are slim for third. This would be the 15th time without a victory, is 15 the charm?

#6 Double Mane 7/2
#9 Lil Renegade 7/5
#3 Naughty Grace


Aqueduct, Saturday, March 12th, 2016

2/20/16: 4 Top Pick Winners ($36.40) 4 Cold Exactas ($92.00), 1 Cold Tri ($212.50), 1 Cold Double ($39.00) 1 Pick 4 ($324.00), Best Bet ($7.90)

2/27/16: 1 Top Pick Winner ($7.50), Best Bet ($7.50) – (Multiple scratches I never got to address)

3/5/16: 3 Top Pick Winners ($38.30) 3 Cold Exactas ($66.80), 3 Cold Tri ($99.20), 1 Cold Double ($14.00), 1 Pick 4 ($356.00)

I wish everyone a Happy March Madness Holiday. My favorite 4 days of the year next Thursday-Sunday and when they end you know spring is right around the corner with the likes of my two favorite tracks Monmouth Park and Belmont. I wish everyone the best of luck to their university and brackets. Let’s Go Duke…. Get Hot Stay Hot!

Pick 5 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $360
Race 1: 1,2,4,6,7
Race 2: 2,5,6
Race 3: 3,4,5,7
Race 4: 2,5,6,8
Race 5: 1,4,6

Pick 5 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $48
Race 1: 1,2,4,6,7
Race 2: 2,6
Race 3: 3,4
Race 4: 2,8
Race 5: 1,4,6

Early Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $72
Race 2: 2,5,6
Race 3: 3,4,5,7
Race 4: 2,4,6,8
Race 5: 1,4,6

Early Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $12
Race 2: 2,6
Race 3: 3.4
Race 4: 2,8
Race 5: 1,4,6

Late Pick 4 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $200
Race 6: 4,6,10,11,12
Race 7: 2,3,6,7,8
Race 8: 3,6,9,10
Race 9: 1,2,3,4

Late Pick 4 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $4
Race 6: 4,10
Race 7: 3
Race 8: 9
Race 9: 1,2,3,4

Race 1: Claiming, 3YO, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Have to go with the chalk early #1 The Great Whiteway has beaten just about the entire field already and all multiple times. Has proved versatility as he can set the pace or sit off it and close. Has also proved that the inside post is a non-issue. Jockey/Trainer have a very nice ROI together over the last 30 days. #2 No Entiendo took second to my winner last time out and the same outcome the time before that, both by 3+ lengths. Went wide on a soft pace but also lost on a hot pace the time before that. Can’t see why this outcome would be any different. #4 The Silver Sniper has very good numbers the last few races but this barn hits at a very low percentage off layoffs 60+ days which is the layoff that this one is coming off of. If that figure could be overcome, has the better speed figures to take these.

#1 The Great Whiteway 8/5
#2 No Entiendo 7/2
#4 The Silver Sniper 4/1

Race 2: Claiming, 4YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
My main man Moochie did me dirty on last week’s picks and analysis, but one never loses faith in their favorite jockey, so we go right back to him on #6 Storm Pursuit here who is going after a 4th straight victory. Like my winner in the previous race; has shown a ton of versatility sitting off the slow pace and also closing the hot one. Moochie and Englehart have also had a sneaky successful winter meet. #2 War Academy drops off the claim for Rudy Rod, a.k.a this horse will be involved. If the price is there, could be a very nice exacta box as I think this will be a 2 horse race only. I don’t think I need to waste time listing Rudy’s stats this meet or the ROI and success with Jose Ortiz combined and Ortiz’s success this meet either, just know they are very good. #7 Non Stop goes off the Greg Sacco claim after running to expectation last time out. However, the numbers Sacco offers with dirt sprinters off the claim are absolutely terrible. The outside post gives the mere opportunity for perfect stalking position.

#6 Storm Pursuit 2/1
#2 War Academy 3/1
#7 Non Stop 6/1

Race 3: Allowance, 4YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Back to Back with Moochie as I go to #3 Hey Bro. Trainer Danny Gargan is second to only Rudy Rod on absolutely cleaning up at this meet. The combination with Moochie Man presents and outstanding ROI. I really liked the effort out of this horse also on February 12th, think she is rounding back into shape and should improve even more here. Hot pace up front gives opportunity for a one run close. What a price. #4 Knuckle Curve has failed to put together back to back quality starts. Is elite in a hand ride and then follows that up in a really poor effort continuously. Last effort was elite so this would seem to be the fall. For the paddock pick believers, this may be one to look at. Competition is much weaker then he’s faced previously, workouts have been very good and the jockey switch will only help. All positive signs to a possible elite back to back one time. #5 Waymond Boyd did not fare very well in California for Bob Baffert but now makes the trip back to local territory and barn in New York with a new owner and trainer. I have to expect better off the long layoff.

#3 Hey Bro 10/1
#4 Knuckle Curve 2/1
#5 Waymond Boyd 3/1

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight, 3YO, 1 Mile & 70 Yards, (Dirt)
#2 Big Gillette will take one of my two best bet selections on the day. Though having lost 3 times while taking money, all were a 2nd place finish by narrow margin. If you look forward, the winner in each of those races has gone on to win at least once, including a Grade 1 Stakes. Additionally, in each race the speed continues to get better. Would think those numbers would be superior to the rest of this field and the family isn’t too shabby either, not sure if you have ever heard of the horse Big Brown? Will try and get out right out front early and often. #5 Dixie Runner ships over from Florida after improving in every single race run. Moves even more forward with the best trainings of his career over the last 3. Last time out took second to another horse you may know, Mo Power. Would have to think that he will also try to go right to the front early and make it a race of whoever wins the pace dual. #7 Greyscale comes with my second shocking price of the day at 12/1. Was game vs a tough field of maidens last time out when the rail was the place to be and he was nowhere near it. Has to be fresh and live, think the other two are better but if you had the money may not be a bad idea to add to Pick 4/5 at this price.

#2 Big Gillette 5/2 – (Best Bet 1)
#5 Dixie Runner 2/1
#7 Greyscale 12/1

Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming, 4YO & Up, 1 Mile & 70 Yards, (Dirt)#1 Send It in nearly collected 5 straight wins but was second best to a photo. The NY bred has been successful on all 4 NYRA dirt racetracks. Last time out was easily not his best performance so that is a bit of a scare going forward, however was still enough to win the race. Pletcher rarely fails at picking the right spot and Franco loves being ITM. #6 Leave The Light On looks to be the lone pace setter and front speed of the race. Will look to get a solid lead over the closers and gate to wire this field. Will have to hold off Send It in as the closing speed fractions have been more impressive then this one’s pace speed fractions. #4 Farhaan 1 of 2 Olsen statistical plays of the day. Trainer with Jockey ROI, Trainer with Jockey ITM, Trainer with Jockey W%.

#1 Send It In 5/2
#6 Leave The Light On 2/1
#4 Farhaan 8/1

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 3YO, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
Tough race with so many first time starters, watch the tote, keep an eye on the post parade. With all that being said, I will go with #4 Timber as my 2 of 2 Olsen statistical plays of the day. Franco and Orseno together are +140% ROI. Additionally, Dam 1st timers have a 100% winning percentage. Adds Lasix. Not a Best Bet, but I like it A LOT. #10 Saratoga Charlie is one of the non-first time starters. Was game last time out and had a recent bullet workout where he finished 3rd on the day. #6 Jet Black 3rd place key for me a few picks and analysis ago. Continues to go to the front to set pace but gets caught each time late. Has hung on for 3rd 3 out of 4 times. Will expect the same here with MOOCHIE.

#4 Timber 12/1
#10 Saratoga Charlie 7/2
#6 Jet Black 3/1

Race 7: Starter Allowance, 4YO & Up, 1 Mile, (Dirt)
Hardest Race on the card IMO. #3 Pass The Dice drops from a very good starter allowance field in which he lost to Lucky Lotto who is an outstanding inner track horse. Almost made him another one of my best bets, but I don’t see a very hot pace up front and I think that will hurt here as he will have to control the front solo instead of stalk. Still think he’s better than the rest but would not be so surprised if flattening again. #7 This Hard Land may end up becoming a very dangerous late running closer due to no horse knowing how to set the pace up front. As of now, has seen better than this last time out, but unsure as not all have come back yet. I really like the price for what may end up being a gift of a race setup. #8 Tug of War is coming off a win last time out for another barn that is quietly having a very good meet. Last time out was best race of career. This one also plays into how I view the race breaking down, if no pace is up front, will be on the close with the #7, If I am wrong about race setup, my selections will be a wash for sure.

#3 Pass The Dice 5/2
#7 This Hard Land 15/1
#8 Tug of War 6/1

Race 8: Tom Fool H. (Grade III), 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#9 Salutos Amigos gets my checkmark for my second best bet of the day. 3 for 3 on this inner track in graded stakes here last season for trainer David Jacobson. Will like getting back here as he is 0-8 on other surfaces in the same position. Won’t see him early, look for a heavy close late. #2 Angry Moon will be the one to catch with Moochie on board. Steps slightly up in class from optional claimers, is undefeated with Moochie on and is very dangerous when getting the lead early solo. In those 6 solo leads, 5 wins and 1 place. Easier to go up front solo vs. less competition, don’t think that happens here. Still wins pace dual vs my next selection but does not hold close. #11 Loki’s Vengeance will be up front with Angry Moon with an ideal post to meet him in the middle on the front. Trainer has a nice ROI and ITM with horses off 100-200 day layoff at 23%. Trifecta, Exacta and Superfecta box of the day. Add Dad’s Caps to complete the boxes.

#9 Salutos Amigos 2/1
#2 Angry Moon 12/1
#11 Loki’s Vengeance 20/1
#5 Dad’s Capa 4/1 – Ex,Tri,Super box only.

Race 9: Claiming, 4YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#3 Regulus re-claimed by Rudy Rod, probably at a good time to for any horse at this meet. Last race was on the mud so throw it out with a beautiful day tomorrow. Last workout on dry was an absolute bullet. Takes a slight drop in class and will be the late closer of the race. 1/1A Entry like the #1 Frazil a lot more than the 1A entry who is lacking speed so keep an eye on any pull out one. Should be up front competing for the pace dual with #4 Perfect Disco who was a game second last time out to a horse that has gone on to win twice since then.

#3 Regulus 3/1
#1/1A 9/2
#4 Perfect Disco 12/1


Aqueduct, Saturday, March 5th, 2016

First off, a lot of people have been sending me direct messages in regards to my record at the meet for Dan. I have written analysis for my man Dan at different tracks, but will just give results of this Aqueduct meet starting 2 weeks ago and will continue it until the end  of the meet and then restart if a new track comes my way by Dan’s request. All $2 mythical plays, besides Pick 4/5/6 which cost is listed. A lot easier to provide via here than each message. Last but not least, if you have a question, reach out to me. I have no problem lending a hand, I want us all to go out winners, waiting until after the race doesn’t offer me the opportunity to help. Get Hot Stay Hot!

2/20/16: 4 Top Pick Winners ($36.40) 4 Cold Exacta’s ($92.00), 1 Cold Tri ($212.50), 1 Cold Double ($39.00) 1 Pick 4 ($324.00), Best Bet ($7.90)

2/27/16: 1 Top Pick Winner ($7.50), Best Bet ($7.50) – (Multiple scratches I never got to address)

.50 Cent Pick 5 (Race 1 – Race 5) – $160
Race 1: 1,2,4,5,6
Race 2: 6
Race 3: 1,4,6,7
Race 4: 3,4,5,7
Race 5: 2,3,4,6

.50 Cent Early Pick 4 (Race 2 – Race 5) – $96
Race 2: 1,6,7
Race 3: 1,4,6,7
Race 4: 3,4,5,7
Race 5: 2,3,4,6

.50 Cent Late Pick 4 (Race 7-Race 10) – $200 – I NEVER go this high, but think this sequence is worth it.
Race 7: 2,3,5,6
Race 8: 2,5,7,9,10
Race 9: 2,3,6,7,8
Race 10: 1,2,3,4

Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 3YO, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#3 Oashaar was game in debut only finishing behind an always dangerous Linda Rice 1st timer after breaking bad from the gate. Based on connections would have to believe she is ready for step up and should improve on a valuable experience race and clean start. #4 Ussery’s Alley showed great speed in which when all said and done was the strongest Maiden Special Weight race in the entire meet at Saratoga this summer. Came off layoff last race at Gulfstream and was bumped on inside and then also outside at the start and never could get in contention. If she races back to debut will be the speed of the race and could score. #6 Joy Drive as stated above, this is a first timer for Linda Rica barn making her dangerous. Purchased for 400k with connection to Quality Road whose progeny wins at 12% clip in debut. Based on February 20th run, still Ussery’s Alley has the better speed.

#3 Oashaar 3/1
#4 Ussery’s Alley 6/1
#6 Joy Drive 2/1

Race 2: Claiming, 4YO & Up, 1 Mile & 70 Yard, (Dirt)
#6 Unstoppable U has had a plethora of trainer changes but has held form all along. Has won last 3 straight while fighting off outstanding pace speed in the last two, and has also won 4 of the last 5. Is the speed in the race and clearly the one to beat. #2 Now We Are Free last race out was a step up in class and did not have enough to complete the close. Even with the drop to where he was a winner two back, think it will be just as tough of a time closing my winner. #7 Ground Control is claimed by the only heat and fire you feel at Aqueduct this time of year, Rudy Rod. Stretches out in distance, off a lengthy layoff after a lackluster performance last time. Will add to my virtual stable if performance is better than last, but have to see it first.

#6 Unstoppable U 2/1
#2 Now We Are Free 7/2
#7 Ground Control 5/2

Race 3: Maiden Special Weight, 3YO, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#4 Five Star Rampage is also a Quality Road filly and from the Grade 1 winners Tiznow/Budroyale family. Has had outstanding works while in Florida for trainer Jimmy Jerkens that would blow the rest of the field away if transferred to this NY field. #1 Candy Counter would be my grandmother’s choice without a doubt if we were at the track live, so have to give it some play after all the outstanding chicken parmigiana she has given back to me. Had a tough stumble stricken debut, but does add Lasix here. Need to see her twice before a decision is made. #2 Naked Express ran well following a stumble on the rail last time out vs a field that has showed success following their debuts. Switches to this meet’s leading rider and the connections have showed success in second time starts.

#4 Five Star Rampage 5/2
#1 Candy Counter 9/5
#2 Naked Express 7/2

Race 4: Claiming, 4YO & UP, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#7 Spearhead won only race with Jamie Rodriquez on board and then has had several jockey and distance changes outside of the only jockey and distance where he was winner. Also finished 2nd at this meet vs better, last time out stumbled out of gate and then was checked on stretch leading to a book deceiving 8th. Was 2nd on the day in a recent bullet work, so I would have to think this horse is live right now and is also dropping in distance to proven success. I always keep a keen eye on when a jockey wins then comes off horse and after success decimates the return of that jockey and distance at same time. You get that here. #8 Bensational was up vs. a heavy pace after stumbling last time out and really had no shot to gain that ground back with what was happening in front. My concern was that the jockey chose not to go 3 wide when it was open to get back into it, can’t tell me he knew that there was no horse left. The answer to that is maybe that’s the reason for the jockey change as he does get a better one here. During the lengthy layoff, has showed much better speed in training then the last two races. #4 Memory Keeper does have great early speed and has improved while looking to go gate to wire in this one. Won last time out in that fashion but if you look at the horses in that race, very un-impressive. There is better here, and I need to something outside of a free pick your path rides vs no competition to put any money on him.

#7 Spearhead 12/1
#8 Bensational 3/1
#4 Memory Keeper 5/1

Race 5: Claiming, 4YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#4 Dance Champion has faced tougher competition multiple times then any single horse in this race and drops in price again. With that being said, jockey/trainer need to figure out if he’s going to sit on pace or close. Sometimes he’s raced to front, sometimes he sits in the middle and goes up early to try and re-create the pace. Can’t change horse’s mentality each race and expect him to be successful. Recent workouts have been very good compared to this field, if the experience of facing better from previous races wasn’t enough already. May even be able to get away with finding the horses spot in this one and still win. #6 Marble Falls will be out front early and the horse that Dance Champion will be looking to close if rode correctly this time out. Don’t see another horse that keeps this one from getting to the front clear early. #2 Because He Can has finished game in the last two races including a 2nd place finish to 10-time winner Cho Time last time out. Will be in stalking position with Dance Champion and if this one gets better path and or Dance Champion fails to make a decision again on type of ride, could complete a successful close.

#4 Dance Champion 5/2
#6 Marble Falls 4/1
#2 Because He Can 3/1

Race 6: Claiming, 4YO & Up, 1 Mile & 70 Yards, (Dirt)
My winner is essentially the same horse as Dance Champion and Race 6 is the same race makeup as the 5th. #8 Casiguapo has faced much better competition, has the best speed and class ratings and if he races anything back to his previous races he is the best horse in the race. Takes a massive class drop. I’m sorry but I will always go with the horses that have faced much better and been competitive in those races than the rest of the field. #7 Coaches Challenge went gate to wire in October in his only career race like this. Will look to get out front and clear early again, but an additional stretch out in distance may be too much. #2 Summit Moon will be the other horse that would like to get out of the gate early and clear. I would think that the #2 post position will help greatly in saving ground and make it easier to get out. Need to see the horse finish first and he has been caught in the same spot. I would guess that the ML maker agrees with me as 8/1 is quite high for a horse with equally the same talent as Coaches Challenge who opens at 5/2.

#8 Casiguapo 3/1
#7 Coaches Challenge 5/2
#2 Summit Moon 8/1

Race 7: Heavenly Prize Invitational S., 4YO & Up, 1 & 1/16 Miles, (Dirt)
#2 Mei Ling is the lone speed horse of the race and will look to get out clear early and set the pace. The 2 post position will only help in that matter. Last bullet workout leads me to believe she is also more live than any other horse in this race, while also dropping 6 pounds. Ortiz and Pletcher have outstanding connection percentages together. Pletcher makes the move to this spot from Laurel. Usually that bothers me but the horse has shown success at multiple tracks. #6 Cali Star is daughter to Street Cry. Will look to beat Mei Ling to the front end and take it gate to wire. I think Mei Ling with the ideal post position beats Irad to the spot which translates into a 2-way dual up front that Cali Star losses. I must say I am absolutely shocked this horse is 8/5. May be the most beatable favorite I have ever seen. #3 House Rules failed to match up vs better competition then this, having to go up against the likes of 1 of my 3 favorite horses ever Wedding Toast, and also Breeders Cup Distaff winner, StopChargingMaria. With that being said, though they are much better it’s not like she was competitive in those races where I say she faced that much better and was second best. Has been successful after all 3 layoffs, should be involved.

#2 Mei Ling 8/1
#6 Cali Star 8/5
#3 House Rules 4/1

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming, 4YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#5 True Bet is my best bet of the day. When facing similar was forced to go to the lead early the last two times out due to lack of speed and faltered late and that is not his game. The paces he set were absolutely ridiculous so the faltering is actually understandable. The pace speed is there in this race so he now will sit off the pace and pounce full of speed instead of having exhausted it all up front. #4 The Big Deluxe has one of the top speed figures in this race. Will compete with the pace up front which may lead to a falter, however I expect him to be the last hanging around up front after being closed. Would not be surprised if he was not in top 3 after what I think will be quite an upfront battle, which is why I like True Bet so much. #10 Curious Cal returns off a layoff where he has shown success in the past and will be with True Bet to close down this fast pace. The trainer also has a ton of success in this spot off layoffs. Though True Bet is my best bet of the day, if he gets the better path, Love the price to be the closer over True Bet. This is also my Trifecta, Superfecta and Exacta box of the day, Throw in #7 Gypsum Johnny as the 4th.

Best Bet, Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta Box of the Day.
#5 True Bet 8/1 – Best Bet
#4 The Big Deluxe 5/2
#10 Curious Cal 15/1
#7 Gypsum Johnny 7/2

Race 9: Gotham S. (Grade III), 3YO, 1 & 1/16 Miles, (Dirt)
#3 Adventist despite having the toughest trip of any horse in the Withers last time out after stumbling out of the gate and then having to go 3-4 wide, still posted great speed figures. Has made great moves closing late and would have to think even more improvement is shown here. Additionally, to no one’s surprise who reads my articles weekly, don’t love anymore more than Lezcano and MOOOCHIE! Get Hot Stay Hot. #2 Shagaf will show us what the deal is today. Had a great debut but then took a step back last time out vs. not the most impressive of competition. First time taking a stab at two turns but the pedigree shouldn’t make that all too hard. Would be shocked if the very successful and talented combination of Irad and Brown haven’t had a successful plan for some time now, on Irad’s dirt; but will that be enough? #7 Sunny Ridge has one of the best speed figures among this and has shown he likes this surface winning 2 of the last 4. Franco grabbed the last winner and will hop right back on here. That winner came on this surface after shipping in, so the track is a non-issue also.

#3 Adventist 4/1
#2 Shagaf 3/1
#7 Sunny Ridge 7/2

Race 10: Claiming, 4YO & Up, 6 Furlongs, (Dirt)
#1 Thnxtomyuncle a Ryne Olsen statistical play always has to come up at least once on a card, I am glad this one arises at 12/1, though I see more like 5/1 at post. Plain and Simple, look up ROI with Saez and Sciacca teamed up together in this spot, WOW. Additionally, highest earning in entire race. #4 Bustin the Bank is the one to beat. Won first time off the claim last time out and earned a speed figure in that race that is a vast margin better to the rest of this field. With that being said, the field was weak and he got the perfect trip a horse could ask for. The barn is having a sneaky good meet. Over 17 years of handicapping, the last race of every card always seems like a non-favorite winner, I’ll stick to that trend here. #6 Saint Joseph will be the one to catch out front early. Comes off a layoff for a near barn and also takes a drop in class vs. a weaker field then this. Not sure if the setup of the race lets him go gate to wire or hold this field.

#1 Thnxtomyuncle 12/1
#4 Bustin the Bank 2/1
#6 Saint Joseph 4/1