Aqeuduct, Saturday, February 20, 2016

It’s supposed to be a beautiful day at the Big A – 60 in February! Here we go, Get Hot Stay Hot!

Early Pick 4 – Race 2 – Race 5 – $120
Race 2: 2,3,4,7
Race 3: 1,4,6
Race 4: 1,2,3,5,7
Race 5: 3,5,6,7

Late Pick 4 – $200K Guarantee – Race 7 – Race 10 (Tight Bankroll Ticket) – $48
Race 7: 2,6,7,12,13,14
Race 8: 1,4,6,7
Race 9: 6,7,8,9
Race 10: 6

Late Pick 4 – $200K Guarantee – Race 7 – Race 10 (Got Money to Dance Ticket) – $144
Race 7: 2,6,7,12,13,14

Race 8: 1,4,6,7
Race 9: 6,7,8,9
Race 10: 1,2,6

Race 1: Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs, 3YO, (Dirt)
Wide open Maiden Claiming races are always tough to get a good feel on. In this one I will lean to #9 Stella Who recently posted a bullet workout and doubled her Beyer figure last time out. Like Sweet Peaches, also takes a drop from a much better Maiden Special Weight. #8 Sweet Peaches who showed vast improvement in speed earlier this fall and takes the drop from maiden special weight company. This barn usually excels with fresh runners and this horse has been off for some time. However, I am not overly impressed with Owner or Jockey statistics together or individually this entire meet, but Danny Gargan who has been absolute fire this meet has now taken over as trainer. Should get a great trip off the outside draw and sit at the front. #6 Grace’s Joy has the top figures in the race but had a clear path at a win last time out and finished second best. This was a follow up to an early stumble first time out and was never involved. Lacks a consistent gate to wire trip yet to put winning money on but could definitely improve.

#9 Stella Who 5/2
#8 Sweet Peaches 3/1
#6 Grace’s Joy 7/2

Race 2: Claiming, 1 Mile & 70 Yards, 4YO & UP, (Dirt)
#4 City Steel son of City Zip returns from a brief layoff. He was second at 2015 Parx finale vs. a 7/5 favorite who has showed success following that race. City Steel is the main speed in the race with a post position that will only help that following a good break. Has had to come off the outside post in all other game races thus far. As a Trainer, Michael Vino’s only start this meet was a 3/1 winner in Bust Another and his horses have won at a 25% clip as owner. Will be up front early. #2 CJ’s Awesome have to go with a statistical play here, in a weak statistical field this one stands out. Jockey/Trainer combination finishes ITM 39% of the time and the Owner adds in a 29% clip. In a weak field, that alone has to put the #2 in my top 3. #5 Now We Are Free won last time out and now takes a minor step up in class. Needs a very hot pace up front and moderate to heavy speed the whole way to have a shot. Nobody loves Carmouche more than Peter Rotondo Sr. and I; MOOUCHIE!If he gets correct setup he’s the winner, 3 needed factors are too many for me though.

#4 City Steel 7/2
#2 CJ’S Awesome 3/1
#5 Now We Are Free 5/1

Race 3: Franklin Square S., 6 Furlongs, 3YO, (Dirt)
#1 Clipthecouponannie won her debut with a lengthy hand ride over four next out graduates and then was arguably even more impressive beating allowance rivals next time out. Gate speed was drastically improved from debut also. The statistics continue in a good favor as the top 5 respective jockey, trainer and owner at this meet are all also part of this horse at 22% winning clips or better. #4 Wondermet has already beaten Frosty Margarita earlier this meet who is my 3rd selection in this race and faced a ton of trouble to do so. Returned 10 days following that race in a stake race such the same and like Clipthecouponannie, also won with a hand ride. A definite threat to both favorites. #6 Frosty Margarita takes a cutback in distance after a two turn win, but needs the pace up front to be a factor, not sure she gets that dual this time out. Can never cut out the beast Rudy Rodriquez as trainer of this one. Like a doctor; will be on call late.

#1Clipthecouponannie 7/5
#4 Wonderment 7/2
#6 Frosty Margarita 8/5

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, 3YO, (Dirt)
Toughest Race on the card IMO. A lot of what can be, what ifs and what will they become in this field. With all that being said, my arm hair length lean goes to #3 Aragonite who has had two really bad rides thus far in career being taken extremely wide when unneeded both times. Now changes to Irad in a sprint race, just don’t think we have seen the horses best yet and if it happens today, will be best in field. Owner and Trainer statistics this meet do though make my stomach turn. #2 Jet Black gets the next lean who has already beaten the #1 Brooklyn Major and the #5 Feets of Strength in a tough post position last time out. In that race though the pace was super-hot up front and does need that again to be a factor. Owner and Trainer have yet to win this meet. #1 Brooklyn Major also benefited from the hot pace in the above mentioned race. Can make the excuse about being caught in traffic, if that is in fact the case the upgrade in ride to Mr. Franco and the addition of Lasix for the first time should certainly help.

#3 Aragonite 4/1
#2 Jet Black 3/1
#1 Brooklyn Major 8/1

Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 Mile 1/16 Miles, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
#6 Cerro takes a slight bump in class but will be the speed and has posted the top speed figure of this bunch last time out when he won by 10 furlongs. Repeat effort is the question. Will go out front right away and will absolutely be the one to catch. J.Ortiz is on board who is tied with Irad for the top winning clip at this meet, would be shocked if you got the current 7/1 price. Chasing will be #7 Zambian Dream looking to fire away with journeyman Manual Franco and the ever dangerous Todd Pletcher as the trainee. Both with massive PS % clips at this meet. #3 Towering Moon will be the other horse in chase mode. Had the best 2015 campaign among these, comes off a slight layoff for the best going right now Rudy Rod who has an equal winning % clip rate at this meet to winning % number with horses in 45-90 day breaks at 33%. (which this one has had). Needs a hot and also contested pace up front though, has shown struggles when he does not get those factors for the close.

#6 Cerro 7/1
#7 Zambian Dream 5/2
#3 Towering Moon 7/2

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile, 3YO, (Dirt)
#1 Just Been Jammin will look to sit at the front and gate to wire the field. Slight concern with the stretch out from Los Alamitos, but extremely tough to go against the leading barn and trainer Rudy Rodriguez at this meet who is absolutely blowing everyone else away and it’s really not even close. 33% winning clip on 100 starts. Jockey John Bisono is no slouch either, though rarely called upon has hit at 17% clip. I have to think they know exactly what they are doing here with this horse. #7 Cadeyrn will be the competition up front for my winning pick here. Puts blinkers on after 3 straight ITM finishes. Had a bullet workout last week at this distance which finished 1/61. Jockey Manuel Franco finishes ITM 40% of the time, and trainer Jeremiah Englehart 41% with dirt routers. #4 Stevie Q plain and simple surface switch selection here. Barn hits 37% of time turf to dirt and Irad is ITM an astounding 62% of the time with trainer Chad Brown ITM an astounding 60% of the time.

#1 Just Been Jammin 7/2
#7 Cadeyrn 3/1
#4 Stevie Q 5/1

Race 7: Claiming, 6 Furlongs, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
#7 Nevada Kid took time off to fix a lengthy time of gate struggles. Even in gate struggles you could tell the horse had life and did finish game after just could never get involved after such drastic issues. Returned last time out in the mud and where you think gate struggles would continue, this time they were diminished. Throw the race out but the diminished struggles not. Takes a huge drop here like many of the others, but the others are dropping due to performance not due to a corrected gate issue, which leads me to believe that if the issue is fixed, this is by far the best horse in the race. #2 Buckleberry Grey should be sitting 4 wide or mid pack looking to pounce late. The rail draw should help him save closing speed early on. As stated earlier Michael Pino and Breakaway stables have little information to offer but Eric Cancel lands in the PS spot over 50% of the time. #6 Frazil takes the biggest drop of what will be the 61st race of his career. This horse has tallied 30% winning clip and 50% clip second best. Don’t have much on Jockey/Owner/Trainer and this drop does make me wonder if the good days are behind him.

#7 Nevada Kid 3/1
#2 Buckleberry Grey 6/1
#6 Frazil 7/2

Race 8: Starter Allowance, 1 & 1/16 Miles, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
#6 Mills has transferred to the dirt like he’s been there all along. Won with a hand ride the first time and then followed that up with a fight and dual that he won, showing he can do it both ways. The drop to an easier spot after back to back wins slightly concerns me as one would think you would go the opposite way after those two performances. I don’t know much about the owner so this will give me some good information going forward. #7 Lucky Lotto finished behind Mills a little over a month ago and followed that up with just about the same times and ride. Both would lead me to believe he lands right here or third again. I also like the fact that trainer Edward R. Barker has had a quietly very good meet. #1 Longforthecity goes 2nd off the layoff for Rudy Rod. Has worked sharply the entire month of January. Set a great pace last but weakened late. I need to see a consistent pace and finish before I think the horse can hold off a great closer in Mills and not falter to the closers again.

#6 Mills 3/1
#7 Lucky Lotto 7/2
#1 Longforthecity 4/1

Race 9: Allowance, 6 Furlongs, 4YO & Up, (Dirt)
#8 Still KRZ won twice on the woodbine synthetic and has been even better on dirt. Last two times out has sat back to far and left the closing opportunity a lot to be desired. I would think Jacobson being the great trainer he is, has learned and will let Velazquez know he wants him closer this time. Would be frustrating and a removal for me if that hasn’t been learned yet. #6 Dannie’s Deceiver returns off a layoff with a much needed rider change after doing nothing on the rail last time out. As stated earlier, Irad is over 60% ITM, the trainer is 50% in the money and owner 50% ITM. All 3 have a ton of starts this meet, so the sample size is far from small. Tasty numbers for a player statistical player like me with a current 6/1 ML. #7 May Be a Diamond put on blinkers for the last two which has led to some serious gate issues. With that being said, the numbers following the gate issues have improved under the new Charlton Baker barn. Blinkers are currently off this time, so getting the pace may come easier which will lead to a smoother ride and a full gate to wire performance. Have not seen the best yet.

#8 Still KRZ 7/2
#6 Dannie’s Deceiver 6/1
#7 May Be a Diamond 3/1

Race 10: Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, 3YO, (Dirt)
#6 Gaming returns off a layoff for trainer Gary Gullo after facing much better last time out and being beaten by a four time stakes winner Sudden Surprise. Is fresh and drops in class to a spot he lost by a nose last time. He hits those numbers he blows this field away by 8-10 furlongs, slight decline, wins by 3-4 furlongs. My best bet of the day. #2 Fleeting Gold has intriguing statistical numbers on the dirt, which includes a very nice jockey/trainer/owner combination. The price seems quite high considering what is a very weak field after Gaming. Could be a very nice exacta. Jamie Rodriguez is also very underrated IMO. #5 Indian Soldier son of Street Boss, was bumped out of the gate and then bobbled later on last time out and still nearly pulled off the win at triple digits. Is the horse this good or was that field that bad?

#6 Gaming 5/2 – Best Bet
#2 Fleeting Gold 12/1
#5 Indian Soldier 4/1

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