Santa Anita, Saturday, January 16, 2016

$0.50 Early Pick 5 $54 (Tight Bankroll Ticket)
Race 1: 6,7
Race 2: 1,3,8
Race 3: 2,6,7
Race 4: 5,7,10
Race 5: 8,10

$0.50 Early Pick 5 $168 (Got Money to Dance Ticket)
Race 1: 6,7
Race 2: 8
Race 3: 2,5,6,7
Race 4: 1,2,5,7,9,10
Race 5: 1,2,3,4,5,8,10

$0.50 Early Pick 4 $9 (Tight Bankroll Ticket)
Race 2: 8
Race 3: 2,6,7
Race 4: 5,7,10
Race 5: 8,10

$0.50 Early Pick 4 $252 (Got Money to Dance Ticket)
Race 2: 1,3,8
Race 3: 2,5,6,7
Race 4: 1,2,5,7,9,10
Race 5: 1,2,3,4,5,8,10

$0.50 Late Pick 4 $48 (Tight Money Ticket)
Race 6: 6,7,8,9
Race 7: 5,7
Race 8: 1,5,7,11
Race 9: 9,10,11

$0.50 Late Pick 4 $160 (Got Money to Dance Ticket)
Race 6: 6,7,8,9
Race 7: 5,7
Race 8: 1,2,4,5,7,9,10,11
Race 9: 6,7,9,10,11

Race 1: Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles, 4YO & Up (Dirt)
The opener leaves a lot to be desired as the two heavy favorites of the race look to be the entire race but I guess that is what is expected in a $8,000 claimer. #6 Candy for Debbie will be one of two front runners. Jockey Rafael Bejarano gets on board where he hits at 50% with trainer Andy Mathis. Should be at the front, control the speed and choose whatever path wanted. Has won here in the past and drops to his lowest level ever. #7 Dive Down is the only other speed in the race to compete with Candy for Debbie. Should also be in the front in a stalking position outside. Would be shocked if this was not a 1 on 1 dual and/or Win and Place finish. #5 Volkonsky is the closer of the race. Like this spot after finishing 3rd last time out vs. tougher competition. Top 2, Exacta box of the day.

#6 Candy for Debbie 8/5
#7 Dive Down 9/5
#5 Volkonsky 4/1

Race 2: Maiden Special Weight, 6 ½ Furlongs Downhill, 3YO (Turf)
The race on deck does not shed the chalk anymore then the opener. #8 Tiz A Billy has faced much tougher; including a runner up finish to Grade 3 Stakes winner Collected and also Stakes winner Hollywood Don last time out on this track/course. The speed, outside post, freshness and training figures would suggest this is a “gallop in the park” victory. #3 Freemark tired last time in the debut after a ridiculous pace. His Dam includes Graded stakes winner Mufajaah, always have to watch improvement after second start. #1 Archaeo continues to struggle on dirt and now moves back to turf where the program and figures would agree he belongs.

#8 Tiz a Billy 6/5 (Best Bet)
#3 Freemark 3/1
#1 Archaeo 4/1

Race 3: Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles, 4YO & UP, F & M (Dirt)
#6 Holograeme a notorious far back closer lost by a nose last time on the first ride for Santiago Gonzalez. Would think she will sit mid pack instead of the back of the pack this time as the photo loss would then change to a nose win. Slight concern would be back of pack and same result. #2 Melanistic has won twice in this spot before (3 including DQ). The drop to her proven winning spot makes her a serious threat but think one time she has to falter going back and forth in what would be the 6th time. #7 Big Break is a Ryne Olsen special here. Jockey/Trainer/Owner combination, check. Jockey/Trainer combination, check. Maldonado in the money 31% of the time, in the show 62% of the time at this meet, check.

#6 Holograeme 5/2
#2 Melanistic 3/1
#7 Big Break 5/1

Race 4: Claiming, 7 Furlongs, 4YO & UP, (Dirt)
#7 HadFunLastNight before you get on me about his 2015 campaign, check this stat. In 32 starts, has finished 1st or 2nd in 16 of these starts. That’s not a typo, 16. Additionally, before this race goes off, watch the last few race replays, why is the horse on the lead (0 ITM finishes) when the proven success lies as a mid pack rally closer? First off the claim for George Papapadromou, I know those replays were seen by him. 3rd start off a layoff would lead me to believe that George agrees with my perception and has worked on it in that time.  Honestly, this shouldn’t even be a contest if rode correctly and re trained correctly. #10 Syndicated stumbled out of the gate and faltered trying to rally from dead last, last time out. Races previous to that one would suggest that he is best, but which ride and horse are we gonna see. I’m not buying an immediate change, there’s a reason they tried a drastic one last time. #5 Hear the Footsteps one name David Jacobson. If this was on my East coast, this is the winner, but I’m not sure how the stats will translate to the west coast. Here they are anyway: 33% ITM with claiming horses dropping 50% in price, 50% with claiming horses 50% in price on the dirt.

#7 HadFunLastNight 3/1
#10 Syndicated 4/1
#5 Hear The Footsteps 5/2

Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, 3YO, Fillies, (Dirt)
#10 Lily is another Ryne Olsen special with connection, owner, jockey, trainer statistics. This one has Songbird connections of Jerry Hollendorfer, Mike Smith and owner Rick Porter who I just spoke with on RaceTrackers. Sire to Uncle Mo whose progeny has won at a 23% clip first time out and the Dam of G1 winner Proud Accolade. Workouts have been sharp and draws the outside post. Slight concern to Mike Smith’s struggles at Santa Anita this meet. #8 Power Cat has been an absolute boss at 5 a.m. This will be the first opportunity for the Baffert trained filly to show it’s skill. For what it’s worth, she destroyed stablemate Edzactly who won 2 days ago by 10 lengths without asking. #6 She’sashocker is a Josh Hamilton type play for my baseball followers. Was a star last summer until an injury after putting up absolutely stunning figures. Rested for three months before returning to training and not only picked of where she left off, but better. Sired by First Dude and Dam has two horses that were also first time starter winners.

#10 Lily 5/2
#8 Power Car 7/2
#6 She’sashocker 12/1 (WPS play at anything above 8/1)

Race 6: Claiming, 1 Mile, 4YO & Up, F & M, (Turf)
#7 Bottle Blonde has been placed in an exact same spot before in terms of layoff, price, field and spot. That time she absolutely crushed the field without looking back. Will sit at the front and if they let her get away just a bit, it’s game over. #8 Doodetta has been ITM all 3 starts at Santa Anita. Is the closer of the race on a first time drop into a claimer. Previous race figures would suggest late competition here. #6 Vanlose Stairway is plain and simple a Ryne Olsen special. Drops out of the same race as bottle blonde, but goes in this time with Bill Spawr stable who is hotter then, well I’m not sure what, but 54% Winners. Trifecta box of the day.

#7 Bottle Blonde 7/2
#8 Doodetta 6/1
#6 Vanlose Stairway 5/1

Race 7: La Canada Stakes (Grade III), 1 1/16 Miles, 4YO & Up, F & M, (Dirt)#7 Taris is a seasoned and mature 6 for 10. Will sit at the front and could dominate this field if they let her loose to run her own pace. Stevens is on board, making it even more dangerous with in race changes. The big concern is a two turn race for only the second time. Will the speed outlast the length in distance. #5 Yahilwa will challenge Taris on first start after two months. Will also sit at the front and make the first call. Can not beat a grade winner but also has not be beaten by any horse but grade winners. #1 Tara’s Tango is what looks to be a two turn specialist for Jerry Hollendorfer with Martin Garcia on board who finishes 3rd more than any other spot in a possible field and is 43% in the money overall at this meet.

#7 Taris 2/1
#5 Yahilwa 5/2
#1 Tara’s Tango 4/1

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 ½ Furlongs Downhill, 4 YO & Up, F & M, (Turf)#1 Dreamologist enters in a two turn race with elite speed after faltering several times at a longer distance. Should stalk the pace and has the speed to bury when ready. The workout speed at this distance continue to impress all that are reading. #11 Demonica is a Ryne Olsen combination horse. Gary Stevens is on board winning at a 20% clip in minimal starts and is 25% in the money. Trainer Peter Eurton combines with Stevens at a 22% clip and the meet leading ITM trainer at a ridiculous 70%. #7 Perdona and #5 Entrechat are in the same spot as Dreamologist. Dropping in turns, have bullet training sessions but still unsure of what to expect in translation to an actual race. Dreamologist actually has proven success at the none two turn races while these do not outside of training. This is my Superfecta Box play of the day.

#1 Dreamologist 3/1
#11 Demonica 8/1
#7 Perdona 8/1
#5 Entrechat 7/2

Race 9: Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, 3YO, Fillies, (Dirt)
Toughest race on the card with the theme of, “Can’t be counted on”. I hope I have you up a good amount by this point, superfecta box the whole field….?  #11 Two Steps of Glory has the speed, class, trainer, owner and experience but has been beaten the last 3 times as the favorite, twice at 2/1 and once at 8/5. By far the best horse in the race and switches to Baze, but clearly enjoys not winning. #9 Avaudrey ugh, switches to Rafeal Bejarano? #10 Old Hollywood was in similar spot last month losing as the favorite. Like Two Steps of Glory, has the speed,class,trainer and owner but can’t be counted on.

#11 Two Steps of Glory 3/1
#9 Avaudrey 6/1
#10 Old Hollywood 7/2

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