Tampa Bay Downs, Saturday, January 2, 2016

Race 1: Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs, 4YO & Up, F & M. (Dirt)
#7 Pathos takes a drop and changes to Jorge Navarro as the trainer. Daniel Centeno is on for the ride winning at a 18% clip at this meet and 33% ITM on the Dirt. Will be very tough at this level. #5 Pretty Indiscreet showed speed in debut but tired and was closed late. It would appear now second race was a tough spot as Look Into My Eyes has won 2 straight after that. #4 Rizzi Girl Tweleve think she will get the right pace in this race. Likes to close from WAY back. Questionable distance placement when she tired at a short price.

#7 Pathos (3/2)
#5 Pretty Indiscreet (4/1)
#4 Rizzi Girl Twelve (5/1)

Race 2: Claiming, 6 ½ Furlongs, 4YO & Up. (Dirt)
#5 Bluegrass Demon has been game in the end of all races but has lacked the final kick often. Visually had best race last time out. Jose Ferrer has put together a very solid dirt meet at 23% W and 48.6% ITM for a owner/trainer that is ITM 83% of the time at this meet, though it is a small sample size. #9 Royal Fighter I tend to call Manoel Money Man Cruz. Races are few and far between, as are the victories but the guy takes the horses into the PS pool continuously. No different this season, at this meet over 90%. #4 Saratoga Boot have seen this horse a few times live at Monmouth this season, good spot and usually finishes right here, did not collect a W in 2015, after a solid 2014 campaign, will look to change fate on the 2nd day of the new year.

#5 Bluegrass Demon (7/2)
#9 Royal Fighter (9/2)
#4 Saratoga Boot (10/1) – Worth a Win play at 10/1 or Higher

Race #3: Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles, 4YO & Up. (Turf)
#6 Determined Braden though finished out of the WPS last race, a repeat effort anywhere close to that will result in a runaway victory. Slight concern that Ronald Dale Allen Jr. seems to not mind finishing and instead settling for 3rd far too often. #7 Step Two trying to find exacta prices, not sure why my eyes keep coming back to Step Two. Don’t really like the Jockey numbers on Turf and trainer has minimal stats in the same spot. Merely trusting the eyes here. #1 Momma’s Mark struggled in New York vs better competition, so the ship to Florida vs. much easier may be the spot needed. Something to keep an eye on for Tampa Bay Downs players for future races.

#6 Determined Braedon (5/2) – Best Bet
#7 Step Two (6/1)
#1 Momma’s Mark (9/2)

Race #4: Claiming, 6 Furlongs, 4YO & Up. (Dirt)
#1 Awesome Prizes was outstanding on the rail last time and beat heavy favorite in a great stretch dual. Draws the same post here and the workouts/figures are much better than the rest. Jockey/Trainer Ricardo Feliciano has the 3rd highest winning % at this track on the dirt. #8 Inaswagger takes a very significant class drop after a very lengthy layoff. Has been in this spot many times before and showed success. #4 Jackpotkidd can’t make an argument to put any horse in this spot, so I go with my favorite color to see waving around the track.

#1 Awesome Prizes (9/2)
#8 Inaswagger (2/1)
#4 Jackpotkidd (5/1)

Race #5: Claiming, 1 Mile, 4YO & Up. F & M (Turf)
#3 Garden Games takes a significant drop in class making her extremely tough and has had success on this surface before. Both factors give her my check mark, but there is another in here. #9 Tell Me Why comes from the Woodbine polytrack and also takes a drop in class. With that being said, quite old. Like Garden Games a lot better if you put them side to side. #6 Guchi Gold if things break down correctly for Centeno, he may pull off a pricey upset here. Centeno has a 24% winning percentage at this meet on the Turf and is ITM 50% of the time. Trainer Gerald S Bennett has the best winning and ITM percentages on the dirt at this meet but the Turf statistics are cut nearly in half. If those numbers were reversed this would be my winner. Trifecta box here could have massive payout if Garden or Guchi hold the front. If you are into the super box, 4th selection would be #4 Battle Axe.

#3 Garden Games (6/1)
#9 Tell me Why  (3/1)
#6 Guchi Gold (8/1) – Worth a Win play at anything over 5/1

Race #6: Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, 4YO & Up. F & M (Dirt)
#11 R.D Special I guess I’m riding Daniel Centeno a lot today huh? What can I say, he’s a Monmouth boy. Like that Centeno will have room to work here and think he’s on the speed of the lacking speed in the race. #8 Terry Blossom if R.D special is not the speed of the race, then Terry Blossom is and it comes at a big M/L price. Coming off a layoff and should be very competitive in this familiar spot with Ferrer on board who has the second highest winning percentage on Dirt with over 30 starts at the meet and the highest ITM percentage respectively. #3 Heir to Glory primarily a turf horse but the dirt work actually competes with these, wouldn’t put a $1 on this current M/L favorite to win though with those circumstances. Another possible massive trifecta box payout, for the super box, 4th selection would be #6 Lafanciulladelwest.

#11 R.D Special (6/1)
#8 Terry Blossom (12/1) – Worth a Win play at anything over (5/1)
#3 Heir to Glory (3/1)

Race #7: Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, 4YO & Up, F & M. (Dirt)
#4 Brett Park looks to be best in this one. His figures are above all the other horses by a vast margin. Had trouble in the last race early and late and still was able to put away my second selection #3 Fury Road was closed by Brett Park, though the book lists the problems had in the race, so did Brett Park and he closed fairly easily. Doesn’t have enough speed to win, but really is the only other horse in the race besides Brett Park that has speed. Would be shocked if he went off at over 10/1. Would absolutely be my tournament place play of the day. #8 Morning Buzz had a very good debut but has done very little since. Takes a drop in class which could help if competition was the issue.

#4 Brett Park (3/1)
#3 Fury Road (20/1) – Worth a Place play at 10/1 or Higher
#8 Morning Buzz (9/2)

Race #8: Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles, 4YO & Up. (Turf)
#2 Pramedya closed down maidens easily in debut on this main track. Lost to Grade 2 Winner Ahh Chocolate after, has quite the ridiculous upside. Guess who’s on board? Daniel Centeno. The great meet turf stats are above ^.  #6 Miss Giacomo A. Gallardo on board who has the best winning % and ITM % of all the jockeys at the meet on turf and has 3x the starts, quite impressive. Trained by the outstanding Jamie Ness, 70% ITM at this meet. Placed here due to the step up in class, exacta box looks tasty. #8 Queenofzeenile just looking for the trifecta price here, think it will be a two horse race but for the trifecta players we go back to Jose Ferrer.

#2 Pramedya (3/1)
#6 Miss Giacomo (7/2)
#8 Queenofzeenile (8/1)

Race #9: Waiver Claiming, 6 Furlongs, 4YO & Up. (Dirt)
#2 Jarrod’s Commando closed a horse coming off 3 straight wins last time out. The oustanding Jamie Ness is on the claim, great numbers off the claim and we already discussed the great numbers on the meet, however not as outstanding on the dirt as the turf. #5 One for Don a monmouth boy to Tampa Bay, have seen this horse race a countless amount of times. Has faltered in big spots and as favorite, has thrived as dog and small spots. Never know which figure he is going to put up, the good figure he smokes the field, his average day it’s a dog fight, his bad day and he gets smoked. This trainer claim may justify more of the good figure is on the way. #10 Rasta Friend just like the last race really only see two possible winners and wouldn’t be surprised if they also ran 1 and 2. Back to my man Ferrer to close the Tri for you guys.

#2 Jarrod’s Commando (5/2)
#5 One for Don (2/1)
#10 Rasta Friend (5/1)

Race #10: Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile, 3YO. (Turf)
#7 Hard Labor has not done well on the dirt so now makes the switch to turf. May be the medicine the doctor ordered as a half to two successful turf horses that went 7 for 11 over career with multiple graded stakes wins. Surprised it’s taken this long honestly. #8 Sea of Erin may be more promising than some may think, while the struggles are prevalent, some he’s lost to have come to Tampa Bay also and have destroyed their respective fields. Something to keep an eye on. #9 Discreet Investor has a proven and successful pedigree, making the switch from dirt to turf, only second start.

#7 Hard Labor (7/2)
#8 Sea of Erin (5/2)
#9 Discreet Investor (5/1)


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