Santa Anita, Saturday, January 16, 2016

$0.50 Early Pick 5 $54 (Tight Bankroll Ticket)
Race 1: 6,7
Race 2: 1,3,8
Race 3: 2,6,7
Race 4: 5,7,10
Race 5: 8,10

$0.50 Early Pick 5 $168 (Got Money to Dance Ticket)
Race 1: 6,7
Race 2: 8
Race 3: 2,5,6,7
Race 4: 1,2,5,7,9,10
Race 5: 1,2,3,4,5,8,10

$0.50 Early Pick 4 $9 (Tight Bankroll Ticket)
Race 2: 8
Race 3: 2,6,7
Race 4: 5,7,10
Race 5: 8,10

$0.50 Early Pick 4 $252 (Got Money to Dance Ticket)
Race 2: 1,3,8
Race 3: 2,5,6,7
Race 4: 1,2,5,7,9,10
Race 5: 1,2,3,4,5,8,10

$0.50 Late Pick 4 $48 (Tight Money Ticket)
Race 6: 6,7,8,9
Race 7: 5,7
Race 8: 1,5,7,11
Race 9: 9,10,11

$0.50 Late Pick 4 $160 (Got Money to Dance Ticket)
Race 6: 6,7,8,9
Race 7: 5,7
Race 8: 1,2,4,5,7,9,10,11
Race 9: 6,7,9,10,11

Race 1: Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles, 4YO & Up (Dirt)
The opener leaves a lot to be desired as the two heavy favorites of the race look to be the entire race but I guess that is what is expected in a $8,000 claimer. #6 Candy for Debbie will be one of two front runners. Jockey Rafael Bejarano gets on board where he hits at 50% with trainer Andy Mathis. Should be at the front, control the speed and choose whatever path wanted. Has won here in the past and drops to his lowest level ever. #7 Dive Down is the only other speed in the race to compete with Candy for Debbie. Should also be in the front in a stalking position outside. Would be shocked if this was not a 1 on 1 dual and/or Win and Place finish. #5 Volkonsky is the closer of the race. Like this spot after finishing 3rd last time out vs. tougher competition. Top 2, Exacta box of the day.

#6 Candy for Debbie 8/5
#7 Dive Down 9/5
#5 Volkonsky 4/1

Race 2: Maiden Special Weight, 6 ½ Furlongs Downhill, 3YO (Turf)
The race on deck does not shed the chalk anymore then the opener. #8 Tiz A Billy has faced much tougher; including a runner up finish to Grade 3 Stakes winner Collected and also Stakes winner Hollywood Don last time out on this track/course. The speed, outside post, freshness and training figures would suggest this is a “gallop in the park” victory. #3 Freemark tired last time in the debut after a ridiculous pace. His Dam includes Graded stakes winner Mufajaah, always have to watch improvement after second start. #1 Archaeo continues to struggle on dirt and now moves back to turf where the program and figures would agree he belongs.

#8 Tiz a Billy 6/5 (Best Bet)
#3 Freemark 3/1
#1 Archaeo 4/1

Race 3: Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles, 4YO & UP, F & M (Dirt)
#6 Holograeme a notorious far back closer lost by a nose last time on the first ride for Santiago Gonzalez. Would think she will sit mid pack instead of the back of the pack this time as the photo loss would then change to a nose win. Slight concern would be back of pack and same result. #2 Melanistic has won twice in this spot before (3 including DQ). The drop to her proven winning spot makes her a serious threat but think one time she has to falter going back and forth in what would be the 6th time. #7 Big Break is a Ryne Olsen special here. Jockey/Trainer/Owner combination, check. Jockey/Trainer combination, check. Maldonado in the money 31% of the time, in the show 62% of the time at this meet, check.

#6 Holograeme 5/2
#2 Melanistic 3/1
#7 Big Break 5/1

Race 4: Claiming, 7 Furlongs, 4YO & UP, (Dirt)
#7 HadFunLastNight before you get on me about his 2015 campaign, check this stat. In 32 starts, has finished 1st or 2nd in 16 of these starts. That’s not a typo, 16. Additionally, before this race goes off, watch the last few race replays, why is the horse on the lead (0 ITM finishes) when the proven success lies as a mid pack rally closer? First off the claim for George Papapadromou, I know those replays were seen by him. 3rd start off a layoff would lead me to believe that George agrees with my perception and has worked on it in that time.  Honestly, this shouldn’t even be a contest if rode correctly and re trained correctly. #10 Syndicated stumbled out of the gate and faltered trying to rally from dead last, last time out. Races previous to that one would suggest that he is best, but which ride and horse are we gonna see. I’m not buying an immediate change, there’s a reason they tried a drastic one last time. #5 Hear the Footsteps one name David Jacobson. If this was on my East coast, this is the winner, but I’m not sure how the stats will translate to the west coast. Here they are anyway: 33% ITM with claiming horses dropping 50% in price, 50% with claiming horses 50% in price on the dirt.

#7 HadFunLastNight 3/1
#10 Syndicated 4/1
#5 Hear The Footsteps 5/2

Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, 3YO, Fillies, (Dirt)
#10 Lily is another Ryne Olsen special with connection, owner, jockey, trainer statistics. This one has Songbird connections of Jerry Hollendorfer, Mike Smith and owner Rick Porter who I just spoke with on RaceTrackers. Sire to Uncle Mo whose progeny has won at a 23% clip first time out and the Dam of G1 winner Proud Accolade. Workouts have been sharp and draws the outside post. Slight concern to Mike Smith’s struggles at Santa Anita this meet. #8 Power Cat has been an absolute boss at 5 a.m. This will be the first opportunity for the Baffert trained filly to show it’s skill. For what it’s worth, she destroyed stablemate Edzactly who won 2 days ago by 10 lengths without asking. #6 She’sashocker is a Josh Hamilton type play for my baseball followers. Was a star last summer until an injury after putting up absolutely stunning figures. Rested for three months before returning to training and not only picked of where she left off, but better. Sired by First Dude and Dam has two horses that were also first time starter winners.

#10 Lily 5/2
#8 Power Car 7/2
#6 She’sashocker 12/1 (WPS play at anything above 8/1)

Race 6: Claiming, 1 Mile, 4YO & Up, F & M, (Turf)
#7 Bottle Blonde has been placed in an exact same spot before in terms of layoff, price, field and spot. That time she absolutely crushed the field without looking back. Will sit at the front and if they let her get away just a bit, it’s game over. #8 Doodetta has been ITM all 3 starts at Santa Anita. Is the closer of the race on a first time drop into a claimer. Previous race figures would suggest late competition here. #6 Vanlose Stairway is plain and simple a Ryne Olsen special. Drops out of the same race as bottle blonde, but goes in this time with Bill Spawr stable who is hotter then, well I’m not sure what, but 54% Winners. Trifecta box of the day.

#7 Bottle Blonde 7/2
#8 Doodetta 6/1
#6 Vanlose Stairway 5/1

Race 7: La Canada Stakes (Grade III), 1 1/16 Miles, 4YO & Up, F & M, (Dirt)#7 Taris is a seasoned and mature 6 for 10. Will sit at the front and could dominate this field if they let her loose to run her own pace. Stevens is on board, making it even more dangerous with in race changes. The big concern is a two turn race for only the second time. Will the speed outlast the length in distance. #5 Yahilwa will challenge Taris on first start after two months. Will also sit at the front and make the first call. Can not beat a grade winner but also has not be beaten by any horse but grade winners. #1 Tara’s Tango is what looks to be a two turn specialist for Jerry Hollendorfer with Martin Garcia on board who finishes 3rd more than any other spot in a possible field and is 43% in the money overall at this meet.

#7 Taris 2/1
#5 Yahilwa 5/2
#1 Tara’s Tango 4/1

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 ½ Furlongs Downhill, 4 YO & Up, F & M, (Turf)#1 Dreamologist enters in a two turn race with elite speed after faltering several times at a longer distance. Should stalk the pace and has the speed to bury when ready. The workout speed at this distance continue to impress all that are reading. #11 Demonica is a Ryne Olsen combination horse. Gary Stevens is on board winning at a 20% clip in minimal starts and is 25% in the money. Trainer Peter Eurton combines with Stevens at a 22% clip and the meet leading ITM trainer at a ridiculous 70%. #7 Perdona and #5 Entrechat are in the same spot as Dreamologist. Dropping in turns, have bullet training sessions but still unsure of what to expect in translation to an actual race. Dreamologist actually has proven success at the none two turn races while these do not outside of training. This is my Superfecta Box play of the day.

#1 Dreamologist 3/1
#11 Demonica 8/1
#7 Perdona 8/1
#5 Entrechat 7/2

Race 9: Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, 3YO, Fillies, (Dirt)
Toughest race on the card with the theme of, “Can’t be counted on”. I hope I have you up a good amount by this point, superfecta box the whole field….?  #11 Two Steps of Glory has the speed, class, trainer, owner and experience but has been beaten the last 3 times as the favorite, twice at 2/1 and once at 8/5. By far the best horse in the race and switches to Baze, but clearly enjoys not winning. #9 Avaudrey ugh, switches to Rafeal Bejarano? #10 Old Hollywood was in similar spot last month losing as the favorite. Like Two Steps of Glory, has the speed,class,trainer and owner but can’t be counted on.

#11 Two Steps of Glory 3/1
#9 Avaudrey 6/1
#10 Old Hollywood 7/2

Tampa Bay Downs, Saturday, January 2, 2016

Race 1: Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs, 4YO & Up, F & M. (Dirt)
#7 Pathos takes a drop and changes to Jorge Navarro as the trainer. Daniel Centeno is on for the ride winning at a 18% clip at this meet and 33% ITM on the Dirt. Will be very tough at this level. #5 Pretty Indiscreet showed speed in debut but tired and was closed late. It would appear now second race was a tough spot as Look Into My Eyes has won 2 straight after that. #4 Rizzi Girl Tweleve think she will get the right pace in this race. Likes to close from WAY back. Questionable distance placement when she tired at a short price.

#7 Pathos (3/2)
#5 Pretty Indiscreet (4/1)
#4 Rizzi Girl Twelve (5/1)

Race 2: Claiming, 6 ½ Furlongs, 4YO & Up. (Dirt)
#5 Bluegrass Demon has been game in the end of all races but has lacked the final kick often. Visually had best race last time out. Jose Ferrer has put together a very solid dirt meet at 23% W and 48.6% ITM for a owner/trainer that is ITM 83% of the time at this meet, though it is a small sample size. #9 Royal Fighter I tend to call Manoel Money Man Cruz. Races are few and far between, as are the victories but the guy takes the horses into the PS pool continuously. No different this season, at this meet over 90%. #4 Saratoga Boot have seen this horse a few times live at Monmouth this season, good spot and usually finishes right here, did not collect a W in 2015, after a solid 2014 campaign, will look to change fate on the 2nd day of the new year.

#5 Bluegrass Demon (7/2)
#9 Royal Fighter (9/2)
#4 Saratoga Boot (10/1) – Worth a Win play at 10/1 or Higher

Race #3: Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles, 4YO & Up. (Turf)
#6 Determined Braden though finished out of the WPS last race, a repeat effort anywhere close to that will result in a runaway victory. Slight concern that Ronald Dale Allen Jr. seems to not mind finishing and instead settling for 3rd far too often. #7 Step Two trying to find exacta prices, not sure why my eyes keep coming back to Step Two. Don’t really like the Jockey numbers on Turf and trainer has minimal stats in the same spot. Merely trusting the eyes here. #1 Momma’s Mark struggled in New York vs better competition, so the ship to Florida vs. much easier may be the spot needed. Something to keep an eye on for Tampa Bay Downs players for future races.

#6 Determined Braedon (5/2) – Best Bet
#7 Step Two (6/1)
#1 Momma’s Mark (9/2)

Race #4: Claiming, 6 Furlongs, 4YO & Up. (Dirt)
#1 Awesome Prizes was outstanding on the rail last time and beat heavy favorite in a great stretch dual. Draws the same post here and the workouts/figures are much better than the rest. Jockey/Trainer Ricardo Feliciano has the 3rd highest winning % at this track on the dirt. #8 Inaswagger takes a very significant class drop after a very lengthy layoff. Has been in this spot many times before and showed success. #4 Jackpotkidd can’t make an argument to put any horse in this spot, so I go with my favorite color to see waving around the track.

#1 Awesome Prizes (9/2)
#8 Inaswagger (2/1)
#4 Jackpotkidd (5/1)

Race #5: Claiming, 1 Mile, 4YO & Up. F & M (Turf)
#3 Garden Games takes a significant drop in class making her extremely tough and has had success on this surface before. Both factors give her my check mark, but there is another in here. #9 Tell Me Why comes from the Woodbine polytrack and also takes a drop in class. With that being said, quite old. Like Garden Games a lot better if you put them side to side. #6 Guchi Gold if things break down correctly for Centeno, he may pull off a pricey upset here. Centeno has a 24% winning percentage at this meet on the Turf and is ITM 50% of the time. Trainer Gerald S Bennett has the best winning and ITM percentages on the dirt at this meet but the Turf statistics are cut nearly in half. If those numbers were reversed this would be my winner. Trifecta box here could have massive payout if Garden or Guchi hold the front. If you are into the super box, 4th selection would be #4 Battle Axe.

#3 Garden Games (6/1)
#9 Tell me Why  (3/1)
#6 Guchi Gold (8/1) – Worth a Win play at anything over 5/1

Race #6: Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, 4YO & Up. F & M (Dirt)
#11 R.D Special I guess I’m riding Daniel Centeno a lot today huh? What can I say, he’s a Monmouth boy. Like that Centeno will have room to work here and think he’s on the speed of the lacking speed in the race. #8 Terry Blossom if R.D special is not the speed of the race, then Terry Blossom is and it comes at a big M/L price. Coming off a layoff and should be very competitive in this familiar spot with Ferrer on board who has the second highest winning percentage on Dirt with over 30 starts at the meet and the highest ITM percentage respectively. #3 Heir to Glory primarily a turf horse but the dirt work actually competes with these, wouldn’t put a $1 on this current M/L favorite to win though with those circumstances. Another possible massive trifecta box payout, for the super box, 4th selection would be #6 Lafanciulladelwest.

#11 R.D Special (6/1)
#8 Terry Blossom (12/1) – Worth a Win play at anything over (5/1)
#3 Heir to Glory (3/1)

Race #7: Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, 4YO & Up, F & M. (Dirt)
#4 Brett Park looks to be best in this one. His figures are above all the other horses by a vast margin. Had trouble in the last race early and late and still was able to put away my second selection #3 Fury Road was closed by Brett Park, though the book lists the problems had in the race, so did Brett Park and he closed fairly easily. Doesn’t have enough speed to win, but really is the only other horse in the race besides Brett Park that has speed. Would be shocked if he went off at over 10/1. Would absolutely be my tournament place play of the day. #8 Morning Buzz had a very good debut but has done very little since. Takes a drop in class which could help if competition was the issue.

#4 Brett Park (3/1)
#3 Fury Road (20/1) – Worth a Place play at 10/1 or Higher
#8 Morning Buzz (9/2)

Race #8: Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles, 4YO & Up. (Turf)
#2 Pramedya closed down maidens easily in debut on this main track. Lost to Grade 2 Winner Ahh Chocolate after, has quite the ridiculous upside. Guess who’s on board? Daniel Centeno. The great meet turf stats are above ^.  #6 Miss Giacomo A. Gallardo on board who has the best winning % and ITM % of all the jockeys at the meet on turf and has 3x the starts, quite impressive. Trained by the outstanding Jamie Ness, 70% ITM at this meet. Placed here due to the step up in class, exacta box looks tasty. #8 Queenofzeenile just looking for the trifecta price here, think it will be a two horse race but for the trifecta players we go back to Jose Ferrer.

#2 Pramedya (3/1)
#6 Miss Giacomo (7/2)
#8 Queenofzeenile (8/1)

Race #9: Waiver Claiming, 6 Furlongs, 4YO & Up. (Dirt)
#2 Jarrod’s Commando closed a horse coming off 3 straight wins last time out. The oustanding Jamie Ness is on the claim, great numbers off the claim and we already discussed the great numbers on the meet, however not as outstanding on the dirt as the turf. #5 One for Don a monmouth boy to Tampa Bay, have seen this horse race a countless amount of times. Has faltered in big spots and as favorite, has thrived as dog and small spots. Never know which figure he is going to put up, the good figure he smokes the field, his average day it’s a dog fight, his bad day and he gets smoked. This trainer claim may justify more of the good figure is on the way. #10 Rasta Friend just like the last race really only see two possible winners and wouldn’t be surprised if they also ran 1 and 2. Back to my man Ferrer to close the Tri for you guys.

#2 Jarrod’s Commando (5/2)
#5 One for Don (2/1)
#10 Rasta Friend (5/1)

Race #10: Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile, 3YO. (Turf)
#7 Hard Labor has not done well on the dirt so now makes the switch to turf. May be the medicine the doctor ordered as a half to two successful turf horses that went 7 for 11 over career with multiple graded stakes wins. Surprised it’s taken this long honestly. #8 Sea of Erin may be more promising than some may think, while the struggles are prevalent, some he’s lost to have come to Tampa Bay also and have destroyed their respective fields. Something to keep an eye on. #9 Discreet Investor has a proven and successful pedigree, making the switch from dirt to turf, only second start.

#7 Hard Labor (7/2)
#8 Sea of Erin (5/2)
#9 Discreet Investor (5/1)