Belmont, Sunday, October 4, 2015

I’ll first start by saying when I see a track go from fast/firm to slop and off, I immediately pack my bags and head home. I’ve never found value in putting in handicapping work all day and night to have everything changed with little time to prepare and so many unknown factors involved. So with that being said, tread lightly here. I realize my pick 5 may be hefty today, but I’ve also been taught when sloppy the value of a larger exotic ticket comes key when hitting an unknown factor in a smaller but more valuable pool. Please check scratched before hand to limit your ticket expense.

 $0.50 Pick 5: $320 – No Track Changes
Race 1: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9
Race 2: 3, 5, 6, 7, 8
Race 3: 1/1A, 2, 4, 7
Race 4: 3. 4, 5, 7
Race 5: 1/1A

 $0.50 Early Pick 4: $80 – No Track Changes
Race 2: 3, 5, 6, 7, 8
Race 3: 1/1A, 2, 4, 7
Race 4: 3. 4, 5, 7
Race 5: 1/1A, 6

 $0.50 Late Pick 4: $164 – No Track Changes
Race 6: 2, 5, 7
Race 7: 1, 2, 11, 13, 14
Race 8: All
Race 9: 1, 6, 7, 8, 9

Best Bets:
Race 5: 1/1A Entry
Race 6: #2 Inheritance

Live Longshot:
Race 7: Chasintheblues (10/1) – On Turf Only

Race 1: $40,000 Maiden Claiming. 3yo and up. 6 Furlongs (Inner Turf)
#2 Mia and Molly cuts back in distance for Linda Rice, a barn that is putting together a terrific fall meet. Has great early speed and think she will get the exact trip needed. If taken off turf, does have decent workouts and dirt pedigree. #1 Northern Screamer boosts the top Beyer speed but has not lived up to that number in the last two efforts and would seem to be trending downward as the last came at a loss at a 2/5 number. May be more valuable off the turf. #7 Hundred Year Storm daughter of War Front, adds shades, cuts back in distance and drops in class. Weakened last time out so this cut in distance may be the change needed.

#2 Mia and Molly (3/1)
#1 Northern Screamer (4/1)
#7 Hundred Year Storm (7/2)

Race 2: $50,000 Claiming. Fillies & Mares 3yo. and up. Have not won 3. 7 Furlongs (Turf)#7 Grandpa’s Princess faces much easier competition then last time out for Trainer David Jacobson and showed much better speed last time out. Additionally, Jacobson is 18% with turf sprinters going first time off claim. #3 Privately Speaking goes back to turf after showing absolutely no interest at all in dirt. (Remove if race is pulled from turf). The last two turf races will be good enough to beat the entire field, but I’ve never been a fan of putting my money on continuous track changes, so until that figure gets repeated 3 times, I’ll stick to a 2nd place finish. #8 Rachel’s Temper distance suits this horse and will be the stretch threat. A surface change would make her my pick. Has been successful on the slop and has won both races on the main track at Belmont already.

#7 Grandpa’s Princess (5/1)
#3 Privately Speaking (5/2)
#8 Rachel’s Temper (6/1)

Race 3: $50,000 Maiden Claiming. Maidens & Fillies 2yo. 5 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)#4 Kalabaka was game in a photo loss first time out even after breaking poor out of the gate. A clean break here along with a small drop in class and the typical improvement on 2nd time out makes her an obvious threat. #1 Voided Contract/#1A Lost Raven are a coupled entry for trainer Todd Pletcher. An Uncle Mo filly and half sibling to Don Lupe respectively, have shown absolute bullet workouts. With that all being said, one thing Pletcher doesn’t have a ridiculous number with is maiden claimers. Can find a much better ROR elsewhere then on this couple. #2 Steve’s Philly will set the pace and a fast one it will be. Adds shades and had recent bullet workout with them on. Will be the one to catch on the inside.

#4 Kalabaka (2/1)
#1/1A Entry (5/2)
#2 Steve’s Philly (4/1)

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight. Maidens and Fillies 2yo. One Mile (Dirt)
#5 Welcoming was second best last time out but did show improvement. Adds distance here but should not be a problem as a trio of bullet workouts at this distance would shy you away from concern. #4 Felini is a second time starter who broke out of the gate poorly last time out but still ran well. Adds lasix today and has been training very well. The experience and high percentage winning barn should show even more improvement and make her a threat today. #3 Hyper Nation should sit on and or set the pace. Extends in distance which is no surprise considering she is essentially bred for it, as her sire took the Preakness and her dam won all graded stakes going long. This one will definitely have my eye on a virtual stable add today.

#5 Welcoming (3/1)
#4 Felini (2/1)
#3 Hyper Nation (7/2)

Race 5: Allowance. 3yo Fillies and Mares. 1 and 1/17 Miles (Turf)
#1/1A Entry Chad brown enters his coupled entry to a winner whether on Turf or Dirt. One overwhelms the field on the turf; the other over whelms the field on the Dirt. However, I do favor Style Drift as a winner on Turf more than Building permit on Dirt. #6 Kathy’s Humor has improved since moving to the lawn. One would think a softened turf course would help this horse, still don’t see it being anywhere near enough to beat either of the coupled entry.

BEST BET: #1A Style Drift (6/5)
BEST BET: #1 Building Permit (6/5)
#6 Kathy’s Humor (3/1)
#4 Outtacypresshills (5/1) – A mere addition for exotics

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight. 2yo Fillies
#2 Inheritance a very highly regarded filly as she was purchased for 1.9 million dollars in April. Lived up to the hype with a game second place debut race. Filly’s dam is half to multiple Grade 1 winner Corinthian. All these factors lead me to believe she has very little competition today.#7 Optimistic Outcome horse jumped out to me on paper to ruin Inheritance back to back with Carella in back to back races. #5 Carella is half to 2006 eclipse award winner Bernardini. Ran behind Inheritance last time out and think it will be the same today. Only positive was the late kick shown, so the added distance could either greatly help, or greatly hurt. I’m going with hurt.

Best Bet: #2 Inheritance (6/5)
#7 Optimistic Outcome (6/1)
#5 Carella (2/1)

Race 7: Allowance 3yo. and up. Six Furlongs (Inner Turf)
Waited as long as I could for track update but still don’t have one, here’s what I have based on a half split main track and turf track only selection of entries.

On Dirt:
#14 Euros to Dollars (5/2)
#5 Pegasus Red (10/1)
#15 Dettifoss (3/1)

On Turf:
#11 Chasintheblues (10/1)
#1 Bannana Thief (7/2)
#5 Pegasus Red (10/1)

Race 8: Allowance. Fillies & Mares 3yo and up.
#2 Clothes Fall Off broke out of the gate poorly last time out and then got rode poorly as there was bumper to bumper traffic the entire way. Facing MUCH easier competition this time out and should win with a big effort running away from the field. #1 True Romance best races all have come on dirt where the outcome has been 4/4 in the money. Had a chance with the speed to compete with Clothes Fall off but the rail draw changes that shot. #3 Paris Franco rode by Franco and trained by Pletcher. Additionally, who doesn’t like a girl in a bikini in Paris?

#2 Clothes Fall Off (2/1)
#1 True Romance (7/2)
#3 Paris Bikini (3/1)

Race 9: $25,000 Claiming. Fillies & Mares 2yo and up who have not won 2. 7 Furlongs (Turf)#8 Tachiello has already won in the mud and slop. Takes a cut in distance which has proved to be a good thing, as the horse has run much better shorter. Will be coming off the pace, needs it hot up front early. #6 More Stormyweather is this not the biggest hunch play of the day? How do you lay off this one who already had a shot, the storm conquers the storm on the back of the NY Daily News, I can see it already. #9 Midnight Bounty horse is too inconsistent for me but has experience on both the turf and sloppy dirt. Has the ability to finish first and the abilitly to finish dead last. I’ll cut the differences in half.

#8 Tachiello (5/2)
#6 More Stormyweather (3/1)
#9 Midnight Bounty (7/2)


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