Belmont, Sunday, September 27, 2015

2 Best Bets, 2 Live Long shots in Analysis.
Early/Late Pick 4, Pick 5 at the End. Thanks and Good Luck!

Pick 5 ($.50) – $144 Ticket
Race 1: 2, 5
Race 2: 2, 5, 7, 8
Race 3: 1, 4, 5
Race 4: 1, 2, 3, 4
Race 5: 6, 7, 8

Early Pick 4 ($.50) – $72 Ticket
Race 2: 2, 5, 7, 8
Race 3: 1, 4, 5
Race 4: 1, 2, 3, 4
Race 5: 6, 7, 8

Late Pick 4 ($.50) – $150 Ticket
Race 7: 1,2,5,8
Race 8: 1,3,6,7,9
Race 9: 1,4,6
Race 10: 2,4,9,11,16

Race 1: $150,000 Joseph A. Gimma Stakes. 2yo Fillies. Seven Furlongs (Dirt)
#2 Super Surprise is a stakes placed maiden and daughter of Giant Surprise. She ran a game second against the perfect She’s All Ready in Seeking the Ante, a duplicate effort here should be enough. #5 Melodic is the daughter of Tale of the Cat and had a very impressive debut win stalking the pace and going clear on the stretch. With even just the slightest improvement will be a very big threat. #3 Frosty Margarita is the most versatile horse in the race which makes her a player here. People forget she was just 2nd best to stakes winner Wonderment first time out.

#2 Super Surprise (6/5)
#5 Melodic (8/1) (The Play 6/1 or Higher)
#3 Frosty Margarita (7/5)

Race 2: Claiming  $32,000 for 3 yr. olds and up. 1 and 1/16 Mile. (Dirt)
#7 MoneyInYour Pocket has already beaten four of these horses at Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga and is going for a second straight win at this track at a level of proven success. #2 Congenial takes a sizable class drop for trainer Abigail Adsit. Abigail is 25% with claimers when dropping 50% in prize pool. #8 Springcourt rallied late as always to finish second best to MoneyInYour Pocket. Was claimed by Rudy Rodriguez two starts back and has improved since then. Will need Congenial to set a fast pace to have a shot, any track but Saratoga gives this horse hope.

#7 MoneyInYour Pocket (5/2)
#2 Congenial (7/2)
#8 Springcourt (5/1)

 Race 3: $150,000 Bertram F. Bongrad Stakes. 2 yo. Seven Furlongs (Dirt)
#5 Championofthenile arguably the hardest horse to beat on the entire card, at a price worth betting though is another story. After switching turf to dirt had the 2nd fastest Beyer figure this season and was hand ridden (may be an understatement) to the finish. Has an opening to improve time and distance which is scary. #1 Get Jets may not be the winner but the horse to put your money on, follow the tote board. Faces weaker here, Beat Love That Jazz for trainer Tony Dutrow who is 47% with two year old 2nd time starters who broke their maiden on debut over the last 5 years. #4 Sudden Surprise just think the competition is tougher here and he will be vastly over bet due to connections and Funny Side Stakes victory but will probably be involved in the PS pool.

#5 Championofthenile (7/5)
#1 Get Jets (3/1)
#4 Sudden Surprise (2/1)

 Race 4: Allowance Optional Claiming $40,000. Fillies and Mares 3yo. and up. Six Furlongs (Inner Turf)
#2 Sister Sophia storyline – Gate fall, lose by nose, Gate fall, lose by nose, Gate fall lose by nose. Not a typo, 3 times. She can stumble out of the gate again, as this time the stretch out will allow the monster closer to win by a nose. 2/2 at Belmont, won at this length in the debut and the pace will suit her perfectly.  #4 Uncle Southern takes a class drop and has a lot of speed. If you put the statistics from his successful races next to these horses and this race, looks very formable. #3 Vicki’s Dancer is the most accomplished and experienced horse in the race. Has done best work on this surface, at this distance and with a fast pace which this race will have.

#2 Sister Sophia (2/1)
#4 Uncle Southern (5/1)
#3 Vicki’s Dancer (7/2)

 Race 5: Maiden Special Weight $75,000. 2 yo. Maiden and Fillies 6 and ½ Furlongs (Dirt)#8 Castor daughter of Malibu Moon stumbled out of gate last time out and rallied late to finish second in a race which is won without the gate stumble. Trainer is Todd Pletcher who is 40% with 2 year old 2nd time starters on the dirt at Belmont over last 5 years. #6 True Pleasure was blocked last trip before making a move to finish second. Need to see a lot more out of this horse to beat Castor today. #7 Smile Big with Irad and Brown complete what should be a decent $10 trifecta.

#8 Castor (5/1) – Best Bet (1)
#6 True Pleasure (2/1)
#7 Smile Big (8/1)

 Race 6: Claiming $25,000. 3 yo. and up, non winners of 3. 6 Furlongs (Turf)
#11 Saltine Warrior drops in class, has been facing much tougher competition and draws a great post. If you put any of his numbers up from last five races against these, shouldn’t be all that close but we all know it’s never that easy. #4 Dominic’s Smile is tough to beat when getting the early lead and is perfect on this track. If Saltine Warrior is caught, this will be the one to do it. Also drops to easier competition. #1 Manofmanyvirtues is the speed of the race and also takes a needed class drop. Struggles on the rail seal the show spot.

#11 Saltine Warrior (3/1)
#4 Dominic’s Smile (5/2)
#1 Manofmanyvirtues (8/1)

 Race 7: Maiden Special Weight $75,000. Maidens 3 yo. and up. 1 and ¼ Miles (Inner Turf)#1A/1 The Kitten’s are a versatile duo that can close or set the pace. Distance suits them, have been game and faltering on either bad rides or not being able to clear a path. Should have no problem over this field. Let’s find who to put behind them. #2 Alcazar De Maram the book lies on this one and you need the eyes to see last race. Went wide twice and ended up covering more track ground then the actual winner. Second best speed to the dual entry. #8 Tobias was part of a very shady race last time out. Bothers me when I see the nonsense live, bothers me even more when I watch the replay and see my eyes didn’t lie the first time. End the B.S! Anyway, A straight up race here to previous race form before the last should land Tobias on the board.

1A/1 Entry: (6/5) – Best Bet (2)
#2 Alcazar De Maram (10/1)
#8 Tobias (5/1)

 Race 8: $200,000 Miss Grillo Stakes. 2 yo. Fillies. 1 and 1/16 Miles (Turf)
#3 Llanita is a very dangerous maiden shipped in for trainer Chad Brown. First race in the states so one can argue the competition, but take a second and go look at that competition…. Woah, Tough! Have you looked at this competition… Woah, SOFT! Adds Lasix, make sure you don’t tweet me till the race completely ends, she shows up fast and very late. #7 Thrilled has been game. Flip flopped a nose winner and a nose loser with a graded stakes winner. Daughter of Unlce Mo, lots of talent left in this tank, today may be the day to let it go to empty. Like 2 bombs for this Place/Show/Superfecta spot. #1 Time and Motion is part of the lying book. Got rode terribly last time out and after the awful ride tried to chase and faltered. Didn’t falter because of distance or stamina it was because of the ride. Adds Lasix and a cleaner trip make a big difference, additionally Jimmy Toner adding a horse into a stakes race for fun? I don’t think so. #9 Lemon Liquer is the second part of the lying book. Got bumped into the rail, rallied off it and got checked 3 deep right after and was still able to finish 3rd in Seeking the Ante race I spoke off earlier in Analysis. Use both in the Pick 4 and exotics, including exacta and splash the W a little.

#3 Llanita (5/2)
#7 Thrilled (7/2)
#1 Time and Motion (12/1) – LIVE LONGSHOT
#9 Lemon Liqueur (15/1) – LIVE LONGSHOT

 Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming $80,000. 3 yo and up. (With many other stipulations) 1 and 1/16 Miles (Dirt)#4 North Slope was a 2nd place finisher in rich allowance race last time out at Parx. Every single horse that came out of last race he won here has all gone on to win and some multiple times. Numbers have been sharp. #6 Touchofstarquaitly has only finished out of the money one time in career and it was off a lengthy layoff quite some time ago. Numbers have also been sharp and if he duplicates June 13th race, will be impossible to beat. #1 Anchor Down hot and cold horse and the rail is this horse’s devil. If you want to pay for 8/5 price because he’s trained by Pletcher and you think the mere return to Belmont after woeful performances at the likes of weak Monmouth will suddenly change back to hot again, Be my guest. I’ll go after ROR elsewhere.

#4 North Slope (5/2)
#6 Touchofstarqualitly (3/1)
#1 Anchor Down (8/5)

 Race 10: Maiden Claiming $40,000. Maiden, Fillies, Mares 3 yo. and up. Seven Furlongs (Turf)Toughest race on card. #4 Irish Actor drops back for a tag for Linda Rice. I’m looking for the first clean trip ever edge here. Has been bumped, hit the rail, squeezed, closed, faltered and pushed out 5 wide. Gets a better post today, good break and clean trip may be all the horse needs just 1 time. #16 Weather Girl has posted good figures and like the spot. Unlikely to draw in, if not. #2 Cosmic Tale has faltered as the chalk several times and will be in that same position tomorrow. At the distance that has been most successful at, chance to live up to the chalk, not my type of play though. #11 Mohawk Lilly has the speed to be a factor and may in fact be the speed of race. I liked what I saw on the lawn in previous races, returns back from dirt for this one.

#4 Irish Actor (3/1)
#16 Weather Girl (5/2)
#2 Cosmic Tale (4/1)
#11 Mohawk Lilly (6/1)

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